Arkansas vs. Auburn Picks, Predictions College Football Week 9: Who Will Prevail in SEC Battle?
The Auburn Tigers won each of their last six matchups with the Arkansas Razorbacks while going 5-1 against the spread over that span. Check out our Arkansas-Auburn picks for college football's Week 9.
One of five SEC games on the Week 9 college football schedule is a midday matchup between the Arkansas Razorbacks and the Auburn Tigers.
Arkansas (3-4 ATS, 6-1 O/U) comes into this game on the heels of a bye week. Prior to the open date, the Razorbacks went out west and dismantled BYU in Provo. That victory snapped a three-game losing skid that saw Arkansas fall to three of its SEC West Division cohorts.
Like the team it will face on Saturday, Auburn (2-5 ATS, 4-3 O/U) also comes in off a bye week. While the Tigers lost to Ole Miss last time out, scoring 34 points in defeat was a step in the right direction for what has been an atrocious offense this season.
Here are our college football betting picks for the Week 9 matchup between Arkansas and Auburn (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).
Check out all of our top college football picks for Week 9, as well as our best bets.
Arkansas vs. Auburn Game Info
Date: Saturday, Oct. 29, Noon ET
TV: SEC Network
Location: Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, AL
Weather: 67 degrees, 61.9% chance of precipitation, 10-11 mph winds E
Arkansas vs. Auburn Odds
Arkansas vs. Auburn Odds Analysis
The consensus spread opened at Arkansas -3.5 but that dropped to the key number of 3 with 60% of the handle backing Auburn, even though 79% of the bets are on the Razorbacks.
Bettors are split on the Over/Under with 61% of the tickets on the Over accounting for just 39% of the handle. The line has held at the opening number of 60.5.
Arkansas vs. Auburn Picks
- Side: Arkansas -3.5 (-104 via FanDuel)
- Total: Under 62.5 (-110 via FanDuel)
- Prop: K.J. Jefferson Over 53.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel)
Arkansas vs. Auburn ATS Pick
Arkansas -3.5 (-104) ★★★
As the point spread sits just above the key betting number of three, it will undoubtedly entice some public action on Auburn. However, the Tigers simply have not shown enough to warrant backing them as a home underdog.
Prior to the game against Ole Miss two weeks ago, Auburn had failed to score more than 24 points in any of five games against FBS-level competition. Tank Bigsby ran all over the Rebels’ defense in the second half, finishing with 180 yards on the day. While that’s all fine and good, the Tigers’ passing attack remains a work in progress.
For Auburn to have any shot of keeping pace in Saturday’s game, Robby Ashford is going to have to turn back the clock to the first half of the LSU game. Since then, he has struggled mightily. This poses a problem for Auburn given that the weak link of the Arkansas defense is the secondary.
While the Tigers should still be able to move the ball against the Razorbacks to an extent, will it be enough to keep up on the scoreboard? In the five games where Arkansas quarterback K.J. Jefferson has played the entire way, the Hogs have scored 31-plus points four times.
Given that Auburn’s defense has allowed 40-plus points to three of five Power 5 opponents on the season, keeping the final margin within 3.5 points could prove to be a tall order for the Tigers’ anemic offense.
Arkansas vs. Auburn O/U Pick
Under 62.5 (-110) ★
Given that the college football betting market has adjusted the total six full points relative to the opening number, bettors are really left with no choice but to buy back on the Under at this stage in the week.
On the bright side, Auburn’s offense hasn’t exactly proven capable of scoring in bunches this season. While both teams leave a bit to be desired defensively, it’s fair to question whether the Tigers will even be able to take advantage of the weak Arkansas secondary.
Another element of the game script that could prove beneficial for betting the Under is the run-heavy nature of both offenses. There is no reason whatsoever for the Razorbacks to abandon Raheim Sanders and their potent rushing attack against an awful Auburn run defense. At the same time, the Tigers have yet to show any sort of a capable passing attack this season.
With the assumption that both teams will emphasize the ground game, the clock should be steadily ticking throughout. While Arkansas is tied for the 10th-most offensive plays per game (79.0), Auburn averages only 69.1 and figures to balance that out.
Looking back on recent meetings between these teams, one can’t help but believe that 62.5 is a bit too high. The last three games have come close, but totals of 61, 58 and 61 all fell shy of this total.
Arkansas vs. Auburn Prop Pick
Jefferson Over 53.5 rushing yards (-114) ★★★★
Betting the Over on 53.5 rushing yards for Jefferson is by far the best pick one could make for this SEC matchup. Considering how bad Auburn is defensively against the run, why wouldn’t Arkansas utilize Jefferson’s rushing ability again on Saturday? The Tigers come in allowing a whopping 226.2 rushing yards per game to opponents, the fifth-most of any FBS team.
Jefferson has recorded 17-plus rushing attempts in four games, and only failed to run for more than 60 yards against Alabama. The Crimson Tide run defense is good, but bettors might also recall that Jefferson was knocked out of that game with a concussion and didn’t get to play a full 60 minutes.
Where to Bet on Auburn vs. Arkansas
Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:
Auburn vs. Arkansas picks made 10/27/2022 at 4 p.m. ET
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