Alabama vs. Georgia Prediction: Odds & Expert Picks for College Football Week 5

In a rematch of last year's instant classic, Kalen DeBoer needs a repeat performance tonight. My Alabama vs. Georgia prediction and college football picks break down whether or not that's possible for the Crimson Tide.

Kirby Smart's Bulldogs are a 3-point betting favorite as they look to stay undefeated when they host Alabama tonight at 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC) from Sanford Stadium - one of four top-25 matchups we're covering as part of our college football predictions for Week 5.

📊 Alabama vs. Georgia odds: Week 5

Latest college football odds updated live in real time.

🐘 Why Alabama can cover

Coming into the season, Alabama was among the college football championship odds favorites, and it was completely justified ... on paper. Then, as we all know, the Crimson Tide completely no showed in Tallahassee against a Florida State team that went 2-10 last season.

So naturally, in the days that followed, Alabama next coach odds became available because surely DeBoer would be let go for not being the second coming of Nick Saban. Right or wrong, that's the standard in Tuscaloosa. But playing Georgia tight tonight could help rejuvenate DeBoer's tenure - and the Crimson Tide have the talent to cover and even win outright.

The reason Alabama can cover is because they have a Heisman Trophy odds dark horse in QB Ty Simpson, who has really settled in since that loss to Florida State. The former blue-chip recruit ranks in the top 15 in QBR (81.5), adjusted completion rate (82.4%), and turnover-worthy play rate (0.9%).

Simpson is one of the country's most efficient passers, and he's throwing to an elite wide receiver duo in Germie Bernard and Ryan Williams - the latter of whom had his breakout game last season against the Bulldogs as a freshman. Those two both rank top 50 in the country in YAC per reception and yards per route run, and Williams features in my anytime touchdown scorer picks.

We saw against Tennessee that this Georgia defense isn't like the one your slightly older sibling is used to - the Bulldogs gave up 41 points and 496 total yards to the Volunteers. Glenn Schumann's secondary has played particularly poorly with Georgia's defense ranking No. 97 in EPA per pass.

Slowing Georgia's offense, which hung 44 on Tennessee behind the best performance of Gunner Stockton's career, will be key for Alabama. But the Crimson Tide showed their defense has potential when they shut down Wisconsin before their bye week last week.

Kane Wommack's unit looked completely different thanks to improved play from Bray Hubbard and LT Overton, who helped hold the Badgers to 209 yards. The Crimson Tide defense ranks No. 31 in EPA per pass, and their secondary has the talent to slow Georgia's wide receiver room, which still lacks a true top-tier threat.

Alabama's passing attack and pass defense will be key to the Crimson Tide covering as 3-point underdogs, and if they can do it, a $10 bet at DraftKings pays a $9.26 profit.

Bet $5, Get $300 in Bonus Bets + Over $200 Off NFL Sunday Ticket

21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/WY). Void in OR/NH. 1 per customer. $5+ first-time bet req. Get promo code to redeem NFL Sunday Ticket sub and max. $200 issued as non-withdrawable bonus bets; 7 day expiry.

Claim $400

🐶 Why Georgia can cover

Only one team in the SEC has shorter College Football Playoff odds than Georgia, with Smart's team once again expected to compete for a conference championship after its electric comeback win over Tennessee. Could that game be what elevates Stockton to another level going forward?

For Georgia to get revenge against Alabama between the hedges this season, Stockton will need to keep up his aggressive passing. The 21-year-old was credited with three big-time throws against the Vols, equal to the amount he had accumulated across the other 141 pass attempts in his career, and was top 20 in the country in big-time throw rate in Week 3 (7.9%).

Coming off a bye, Stockton has an opportunity to continue his upward trajectory against Alabama, and his ability to do so will come down to his receivers. While the Bulldogs may not have an A.J. Green or Brock Bowers on the roster, they have a deep room with a half dozen experienced pass catchers.

The X-factor against Alabama could be USC transfer Zachariah Branch, whose YAC ability is among the best in the country - he leads all of college football in YAC per reception (16.2). If Branch is able to create explosive plays after the catch, Alabama's defense could be in trouble.

And while Georgia has yet to get its run game going consistently this season, it could with its deep room of running backs, led by Nate Frazier, and Stockton's mobility opening things up. The Crimson Tide are ranked just No. 66 in EPA per rush on defense.

However, the biggest factor in Georgia covering the spread will be this defense turning back the clock to the era when it was churning out a handful of first-round picks every season. Though this team lacks a Jordan Davis or Jalen Carter, it does have several future NFL players like linebacker CJ Allen and defensive tackle Christen Miller.

Those two have helped Georgia's defense profile as one of the best against the run this season - No. 10 in EPA per rush - but with a young secondary, the pass rush will need to step up to stop Alabama's aerial assault. The talent is there with players like Raylen Wilson, Gabe Harris Jr., and Chris Cole capable of pressuring Simpson, similarly to how Florida State did to disrupt the Crimson Tide's inexperienced triggerman. 

Stockton continuing his dynamic play and the Bulldogs getting more from their pass rush is imperative for them to cover as a 2.5-point favorite, and if they do, a $10 bet at FanDuel pays a $8.06 profit.

Bet $5, Win $300 in Bonus Bets

New customers only. Min. first deposit and wager of $5+. Bonus bets are awarded within 72 hours of winning your first wager. T&Cs apply.

Claim $300

🏈 Alabama vs. Georgia prediction & best bet

Neither of these teams has shown enough early in the season to believe they're capable of competing with the top teams in the country. With that said, Alabama has the talent to live up to the preseason hype of being a national title contender.

This is a Crimson Tide squad that remains ranked top five in SP+ despite a Week 1 loss to Florida State that looks better a few weeks later. They're also one of only three teams to rank in the top 10 on offense and defense.

Are there questions with Simpson still? Absolutely, but it's no surprise he struggled on the road against an eventual top-10 team after having thrown just 50 career passes entering the season. And with how he's looked throwing to Williams and Bernard the last two weeks, I think he's poised to be one of the best quarterbacks in the country by season's end.

Alabama was also down three key pieces in that Week 1 game - running back Jam Miller, guard Jaeden Roberts, and defensive tackle Tim Keenan III - and all three starters are expected to be ready to go against Georgia. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are likely down one of their most experienced offensive linemen, Earnest Greene III, who's doubtful for the game.

With Simpson finding his stride, and the Crimson Tide finally at full strength, I'm taking the Alabama moneyline at bet365 (+135) with a $10 winning bet paying a $13.50 profit.

✅ Score prediction: Alabama 27, Georgia 23

Bet $5, Get $300 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose*

*Deposit required. Mobile app only. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Referral Codes are used for marketing/tracking purposes only.

Claim Now

💰 More Alabama vs. Georgia picks

College football expert picks for Week 5; odds subject to change.