World Cup Goals Weigh Heavily on Sportsbook Revenue

The opening stage of the 2026 World Cup has turned into an expensive proposition for major sportsbooks, as high-scoring performances from marquee players and popular national teams have driven substantial payouts to bettors. DraftKings alone is estimated to have lost as much as $50 million during the group stage, according to Bank of America figures. 

The losses stem partly from a wave of investment gambling companies made in new in-play betting options and promotional offers tied to the tournament. This is aimed at capturing new customers while fending off competition from prediction market platforms.  

An analyst at investment bank Citizens noted that the best sports betting sites, brokerages, and prediction market apps alike have been pouring hundreds of millions of dollars into customer acquisition around the event. 

Parlay bets, which require multiple correct predictions to pay out, became especially costly when Lionel Messi, Erling Haaland, and Kylian Mbappé each scored twice in matches last Tuesday. A popular wager betting on all three to score multiple goals carried odds of roughly 1%, but still delivered a major payout to successful bettors. 

Strong showings from national teams with large betting followings, including the US and England, added further strain. England's 4-2 win over Croatia produced the tournament's highest wagering activity and cost Flutter, parent of FanDuel and Paddy Power, over £4 million in the UK alone, though the company said a later scoreless draw against Ghana helped offset those losses. 

Analysts say the tournament may still pay off long term through greater brand exposure and cross-selling into other betting products. 

Prediction markets see record volume

While traditional sportsbooks absorbed losses from the tournament's early upsets, prediction market platforms saw the opposite, posting a dramatic jump in trading activity tied directly to World Cup interest. 

Kalshi and Polymarket, including its separate US-regulated arm, recorded a combined $44.8 billion in trading volume in June, a 75% increase from May's $25.7 billion. Kalshi drove much of that growth, with volume climbing 87.4% to $31.5 billion. 

Polymarket's international platform brought in $10.3 billion, up 45% from the prior month, reversing a decline that had persisted from March through May. Polymarket's US platform also grew, rising to $3 billion from $1.8 billion in May. 

The World Cup, which began June 11, has been the primary driver behind the surge. Kalshi's market predicting the tournament's eventual winner has attracted more than $832 million in bets, with roughly 35% of that money backing France. On Polymarket, individual match contracts have each pulled in between $500,000 and $2 million in volume as the tournament continues toward its scheduled conclusion on July 19. 

The growth comes even as both platforms face mounting legal pressure in the US and other countries. More than a dozen US states have pursued action against Kalshi and Polymarket over allegations that their sports-related contracts amount to unlicensed gambling, and dozens of countries have told Polymarket to exit.