World Cup Boosts Prediction Market Trading Volume to $50B in June

Prediction market platforms just delivered a month that traditional sportsbooks will struggle to match anytime soon. Kalshi, Polymarket, and newcomer Rothera combined for more than $50 billion in trading volume in June, a stretch that lined up with the opening rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.  

Kalshi alone reported $31 billion in notional trading, a jump of more than 70% from May, with sports contracts making up around 85% of that activity. The company says World Cup-specific betting on its platform has now climbed past $22 billion. 

Polymarket had a strong month too. Its international exchange hit a record $10.8 billion, while its separate regulated US platform pulled in $3.5 billion, nearly doubling May's total. Rothera, which Robinhood launched through a joint venture with Susquehanna International Group, launched in June and immediately grabbed a 7% slice of the US prediction market with $2 billion in volume during its first weeks live. 

What stands out is who is showing up to place these trades. Kalshi's female user base grew 106% during the tournament, more than double the growth rate among men, and by late June, women made up roughly a third of its users compared with around 22 to 23% at DraftKings and FanDuel.  

App tracking firm Apptopia found that Kalshi and Polymarket, two of the best prediction markets, combined accounted for 78.5% of betting app installs across major platforms in June, up from about 6% a year earlier. Wall Street has taken notice as well, with trading firms building dedicated desks to treat these contracts as legitimate financial instruments rather than a betting curiosity. 

Traditional sportsbooks still cashed in

Even as prediction markets drew attention, traditional sportsbooks had their own record-setting stretch built around the US men's national team. The USMNT run through its home tournament pushed betting handle to levels several major sportsbooks had never seen for a soccer match, and the payoff came when that run finally ended. 

The loss to Belgium in the round of 16 became the most-bet soccer game in the history of a few of the best sports betting sites.

BetMGM said the match drew more action than any 2026 College Football Playoff game outside the championship, the men's college basketball title game, or any championship series contest from the NBA, NHL, or MLB.  

A BetMGM trading manager pointed to a mix of factors behind the surge, including nationwide enthusiasm for the tournament and the primetime kickoff slot for the US matchup. 

Bettors backed the Americans heavily throughout the tournament. Caesars Sportsbook said 81% of the money wagered on that match was riding on the US advancing, and the tight betting line made it a profitable night for operators once the team lost.  

One bettor at Circa Sportsbook in Las Vegas placed a $750,000 wager on the US to move on. With the Americans eliminated, sportsbooks expect some falloff in betting volume, though operators say interest remains strong heading into the tournament's final matches.