US World Cup Elimination Fuels Record Betting Handle

The US men’s national soccer team’s run through its home World Cup produced record wagering totals for US sportsbooks and left the industry in a strong financial position once the team's tournament ended.  

Monday's round of 16 loss to Belgium became the most-bet soccer match in the history of several major operators, with BetMGM reporting that it drew more action than any 2026 College Football Playoff game outside the title matchup, the men's college basketball championship, or any NBA, NHL, or MLB title series contest. 

The betting record for a soccer match had already fallen repeatedly during the tournament. FanDuel said the first two US group games each broke the mark, and the US' win over Bosnia-Herzegovina set a new high at Caesars, only to be overtaken almost immediately by Argentina against Cape Verde and then Mexico's loss to England. 

Christian Cipollini, BetMGM's senior trading manager, told ESPN that the tournament set a record for handle throughout. He credited national enthusiasm, the tournament's US location, and the prime-time kickoff for the Belgium game as major factors driving turnout. 

Bettors on the best sports betting sites leaned heavily toward the US throughout the run. Mark Bickerdike, who leads soccer trading for Caesars Sportsbook, told the media outlet that 81% of handle backed the Americans to advance past Belgium, while many wagers also targeted forward Folarin Balogun to score.  

The line, with the US as a -130 favorite on DraftKings, encouraged heavier action than a lopsided line might have, according to Cipollini, making the eventual loss especially profitable for books. One Circa Sportsbook bettor in Las Vegas placed $750,000 on the US to advance. 

World Cup also drives prediction market trading

While traditional sportsbooks profited from the tournament's betting surge, prediction market apps platforms saw similar momentum in a different corner of the wagering world.  

Kalshi recorded more than $31 billion in notional trading volume in June, a jump of over 70% from May's $17.9 billion, according to Dune Analytics. The platform has maintained daily volume above $1 billion since the tournament began on June 11. 

Polymarket's international exchange also set a monthly record, with trading topping $10.8 billion. Rothera, an event-contract platform that launched in June, generated $2 billion in volume during its debut month and now represents 7% of US prediction market activity, according to Bank of America figures. 

Platforms actively marketed themselves around the tournament. Polymarket ran a bracket contest offering up to $2 million to users who correctly predicted the knockout round, while Kalshi added "Trade the World Cup" to the title of its mobile app on the Apple App Store. Open interest also climbed, with Kalshi surpassing $1 billion and Polymarket nearing $400 million. 

Solidus Labs chief executive Asaf Meir described the tournament as a major test of whether prediction markets can sustain fair conditions for investors during extended periods of high trading volume, calling it a pressure test for the industry's maturity and safety.