Special Forces Soldier Charged Over Prediction Market Bets Linked to Maduro Capture
A US Special Forces soldier has been detained for making prediction market trades based on classified information related to the arrest of the former president of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro. Federal prosecutors said the trades were placed shortly before the operation became public, raising concerns about insider activity within prediction markets.
The Department of Justice identified the individual as Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who netted over $400,000 from the activity. Investigators said he wagered more than $33,000 on Polymarket days before President Donald Trump confirmed Maduro’s capture. The bets returned more than $409,000, driven largely by a single position predicting Maduro would be removed from office by January 31.
The profit margin, which exceeded 1,200%, drew scrutiny across the trading community and prompted a federal investigation. Van Dyke has been charged with wire fraud, commodities fraud, theft of nonpublic government information, and unlawful use of confidential information for personal gain.
Authorities said he also attempted to conceal his activity after reports surfaced about unusual trading tied to the mission. According to the indictment, he tried to delete his Polymarket account and modify identifying details linked to his cryptocurrency exchange account.
While his exact role in the operation was not detailed, prosecutors noted he was photographed aboard the USS Iwo Jima following Maduro’s capture. The vessel was used to transport Maduro after his arrest before he was brought to New York under federal custody.
Wisconsin targets prediction platforms
Regulatory pressure on prediction market apps is also increasing at the state level, with Wisconsin filing lawsuits to block what it described as illegal sports betting activity conducted through event-based contracts. The legal action was announced by the Wisconsin Department of Justice on April 23.
The state named several companies, including Polymarket, Kalshi, Coinbase, Robinhood, and Crypto.com, alleging they facilitated unlawful gambling by offering contracts tied to sports outcomes.
Contracts described in the documents operate in a manner similar to traditional wagers made on sporting events, paying out according to the outcome of those events. The State of Wisconsin, by law, prohibits gambling except for a few very minor exceptions.
Officials argued the companies attempted to bypass these restrictions by presenting the wagers as financial instruments rather than bets. The complaints stated that operators collect fees on each trade, generating revenue from activity the state considers illegal.
The lawsuits seek declaratory judgments that the activity violates state law and request both preliminary and permanent injunctions. These measures would prevent the companies from offering such contracts to Wisconsin residents.
One platform cited in the filings reportedly generates a substantial portion of its annual revenue from sports-related contracts. State officials said this reinforced their position that the activity constitutes unlawful gambling rather than legitimate financial trading.
