Seahawks Favored Over Patriots as Kalshi Sets Super Bowl Odds

The Super Bowl 2026 matchup was set following Sunday's conference championship games, with the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots advancing to the Big Game.

Prediction market Kalshi quickly updated its market, assigning Seattle a 68% implied probability to defeat New England.

The Seahawks, who had been the championship favorite since Jan. 4, are priced at 68 cents to win, up one cent from a day earlier, while the Patriots stand at 33 cents.

On Oct. 1, Kalshi markets implied roughly a 1% chance that the Patriots would win the conference. The team leaned heavily on defense throughout the season, allowing 18.8 points per game and limiting opponents to 101.7 rushing yards per contest. Quarterback Drake Maye posted a 77.1 QBR during the regular season and became one of the youngest quarterbacks to start a championship game, at 23 years old.

Seattle, the NFC's top seed, advanced with a similarly physical profile. The Seahawks allowed a league-best 17.2 points per game during the regular season and held opponents to 91.9 rushing yards per game. Quarterback Sam Darnold, who carried a 56.0 QBR, guided an offense that averaged 28.4 points per game and completed 67.7% of its passes.

The matchup between the Patriots and Seahawks is a rematch of the 2015 championship, when New England defeated Seattle 28-24. That game was decided late by an interception that denied Seattle a potential game-winning score.

Massachusetts court delay keeps Kalshi active through Super Bowl 2026

As Kalshi's Super Bowl markets drew increased attention, the platform also received a temporary reprieve in Massachusetts following a court hearing on Friday. Suffolk County Superior Court Judge Christopher Barry-Smith postponed a decision on whether to stay an injunction that would ban Kalshi from offering sports event contracts in the state.

The delay effectively ensures that Kalshi will remain available in Massachusetts until at least after the Super Bowl.

Barry-Smith granted an injunction sought by Massachusetts that would have prohibited Kalshi from operating sports-related contracts within the Commonwealth. Last Friday's hearing was intended to determine whether enforcement of that injunction would be paused while the case continues.

Without a stay, Kalshi would have been required to geofence Massachusetts within seven days of the injunction taking effect. It was a major ruling for one of the top prediction market apps.

Instead, the court deferred a ruling and scheduled additional filings from both sides. Massachusetts has until Jan. 30 to respond to Kalshi's motion for a stay, with Kalshi permitted to reply by Feb. 4. The judge indicated that a decision could follow several weeks later, stating that the issues may be ready for resolution in that timeframe.

One unresolved issue between the parties concerns how to treat contracts already purchased by Massachusetts residents. Under the state's proposed injunction, those contracts could remain open until settlement but would not be eligible for cash-out, which Massachusetts has argued would constitute a prohibited subsequent transaction.