Running Back Line Movement: Odds Skyrocketing for Antonio Gibson

NFL futures markets are always influx, and they provide insight into how sportsbooks alter their expectations for the upcoming season based on news, injuries and betting action. 

Here’s a look at notable line movement in the 2022 Most Rushing Yards markets from FanDuel and DraftKings Sportsbook from their odds close to opening on May 13 to their current offerings.

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FanDuel Running Back Line Movement

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

The second-year running back paced the NFL in rushing attempts, yards, and yards from scrimmage in 2021, and Taylor projects to be the key cog in the Indianapolis offense again in 2022.

His odds at FanDuel have plummeted, and he's the consensus favorite across the industry to lead the NFL in rushing yards again this season. As a result, there’s limited value to back Taylor in the market.

Rashaad Penny, Seattle Seahawks

Despite nursing a groin injury during the beginning of training camp, Penny has still seen his odds in this market drop considerably. 

Penny exploded for 671 rushing yards and six touchdowns over the final five weeks of the 2021 season, so there’s ample ammunition for prospective bettors. 

However, Seattle selected running back Kenneth Walker III in the second round of the 2022 NFL Draft to add competition for touches out of the backfield, and Penny has missed considerable time through his first four seasons in the league due to injury. Plus, nine-time Pro Bowl quarterback Russell Wilson is no longer commanding the Seattle offense.

At his current +1600 odds to pace the NFL in rushing yards, Penny’s currently a tough sell considering all the obstacles ahead of him entering the 2022 campaign. 

DraftKings Running Back Line Movement

Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos

Williams is undoubtedly one of the most promising rushers in the league entering the 2022 season. Unfortunately, veteran running back Melvin Gordon is still in the mix, so seeing Williams’ odds to lead the NFL in rushing yards increase shouldn’t be a shock.

Additionally, Denver bringing in quarterback Russell Wilson to lead the offense should result in the team challenging defenses through the air more frequently than last year.

It’ll likely take a Gordon injury or a dramatic uptick in Williams’ workload to allow for the second-year running back to have a legitimate chance of even flirting with the rushing title this season.

Elijah Mitchell, San Francisco 49ers

A true surprise as a rookie in 2021, Mitchell took advantage of an early-season opportunity and led the San Fran backfield when healthy. Staying on the field, however, was a problem.

Mitchell was limited to 11 games – 10 starts – due to a laundry list of injuries, so there’s legitimate concern about his durability to handle the necessary workload to take a run at leading the NFL in rushing yards.

Fittingly, the sophomore underwent an offseason knee procedure and might miss the entire preseason with a hamstring injury.  

Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys

A two-time rushing champion, Elliott enters his seventh season in the league atop the Dallas running back depth chart and running behind a projected above-average offensive line.

Still, Elliott handled a career-low 237 carries in 2021, and No. 2 running back Tony Pollard should be even more involved in the offensive attack this season.

Pollard is coming off a career-best season (5.5 yards per carry, 1,056 yards from scrimmage) and Dallas will probably be best served by incorporating him into the offense even more this year.

Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams

Another running back carrying injury risk, Akers missed nearly the entire 2021 season after tearing his Achilles tendon during a workout last summer. Perhaps more concerning, he rushed for just 2.4 YPC over five games to conclude the campaign.

Akers is hurt again with an undisclosed soft-tissue injury, and he doesn’t have a firm return timeline. Additionally, running back Darrell Henderson is also projected to have a meaningful role out of the backfield for the Rams.

J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens

Sticking with injury news, Dobbins isn’t a lock to be active for Week 1, as he continues to work his way back from a torn ACL he sustained last August. 

So, even after rushing for 6.0 YPC as a rookie in 2020, it’s tough to project Dobbins to have a legitimate chance of leading the NFL in rushing yards. Quarterback Lamar Jackson will cut into the available carries as usual, and Baltimore will likely look to deploy a committee out of the backfield considering its recent injury woes at the position.

Running back Gus Edwards should also be involved in the rushing attack once he’s recovered from his own ACL injury.

Market Crashing on Antonio Gibson

Washington appears headed for a committee approach out of the backfield this season, and Gibson’s odds to lead the NFL in rushing yards reflect it by skyrocketing up.

Pass-catching specialist J.D. McKissic’s role is etched in stone, and rookie Brian Robinson showed well in his preseason debut with 26 yards and a touchdown on six carries.

While splitting the workload should enable Gibson to be a more efficient rusher, it will also certainly cut into his year-end yardage totals. After all, his YPC dipped from 4.7 as a rookie to 4.0 last season.

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