Rubio Catches Up with Vance for 2028 GOP Nominee on Kalshi

Marco Rubio’s odds of receiving the 2028 GOP nomination have been rising, with Rubio at a 30% chance on Kalshi, compared to JD Vance at 33%.

Ziv Chen

Last Updated: June 3, 2026 6:12 AM EDT • 2 minute read

Pictured: U.S. President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio in the Oval Office as we look at Vance and Rubio's numbers to be the next Republican Presidential nominee. Photo by REUTERS/Kylie Cooper

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Vice President JD Vance started the year as the obvious favorite for the next Republican presidential nomination, but prediction markets show that lead is evaporating. Marco Rubio has been rapidly climbing on Kalshi and now sits within striking distance of taking the top spot.

Traders on Kalshi have flipped their positions over the last few months as the Secretary of State gains momentum while the sitting Vice President watches his early advantage shrink. This shift marks the first major shakeup in how the public views the party leadership's long-term future.

Vance still leads Rubio on a market that has so far generated $45.2 million in trading volume. As of June 2, Vance's odds are 33%, down from above 50% when the market opened at the best prediction markets in November 2024. In contrast, Rubio has gone from under a 5% chance in November to 30% as of June 2. Tucker Carlson closes the market with a 5.6% chance.

Two major foreign policy crises seem to be driving Rubio's sudden popularity on the trading site. He saw massive spikes in his odds during the recent military tension in Venezuela and the widening conflict in the Middle East.

It also helped that he gave a major televised address right from the White House lawn, which gave him a highly presidential look. Behind-the-scenes rumor mills suggest the President has been privately complaining about Vance.

Even though Rubio is having a great moment, the overall market shows some warning signs for the party. While his individual stock is up, the general market odds for any Republican winning in 2028 have actually dropped. This dip aligns with a slide in the current administration's approval ratings since January.

White House pushes back against state limits on betting markets

The explosive growth of these political prediction markets has now caught the President's attention. President Donald Trump is stepping directly into a legal battle by arguing that individual states should not have the authority to ban these trading platforms.

The administration wants the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to be the only agency in charge of oversight. By establishing a single federal standard, the White House hopes to wipe out a patchwork of state laws that currently block residents from participating.

This stance has triggered a massive fight within conservative circles over federal power versus states' rights. A group of state attorneys general argues that these sites are just glorified gambling dens that exploit citizens and bypass local tax laws.

Adding fuel to the fire are the extensive financial connections tied to the president's inner circle. Donald Trump Jr. serves as an advisor to some of these leading prediction platforms, and Trump Media has actively looked into adding betting features directly into its streaming services.

Despite the intense blowback, federal regulators are still fighting state officials in court to keep the platforms open. They maintain that these markets act as legitimate financial forecasting tools rather than simple online casinos.

Written by:
Ziv Chen

Ziv has over two decades of experience in the igaming and sports betting industry, having served in senior marketing and business development positions with both B2C and B2B companies, including Playtech and Microgaming. In 2019, Ziv decided to pursue his passion for writing and became a fulltime industry journalist, covering casino, sports, and gambling business news. He’s specialties include casino games and technology, US state gambling regulation, company performance, as well as gambling affiliates and marketing. As a Pitt graduate, Ziv is a diehard fan of all Pittsburgh sports teams, with the Steelers at the top of the list. In his free time, he enjoys reading crime fiction, biographies (mainly of sports personalities, but not only) and American history. Ziv’s Favorite quote: “We're going to pursue perfection, knowing full well we won't catch it, but we're going to relentlessly chase it," Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers Head Coach.