Trump Softens His Position on Prediction Markets Just Days After Opposing Them

Within the span of a single week, President Donald Trump went from publicly dismissing prediction markets to softening his position. Speaking to reporters in Florida over the weekend, President Trump acknowledged that people he respects see value in these platforms, noting that other countries are already participating and that the US risks falling behind if it stays on the sidelines.

The reversal came just days after President Trump voiced frustration at the White House, framing the rise of prediction markets as part of a broader cultural drift toward gambling. His Thursday remarks were spurred by questions about suspiciously timed bets connected to a military operation involving former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

That action led to the indictment of a US soldier on insider trading charges. Trump made clear at the time that he had never been a supporter of the concept.

By Saturday, the tone had shifted noticeably. President Trump stopped short of endorsing the best prediction markets outright but acknowledged their growing global footprint as a practical reality worth considering. ‘I don’t know, but I know some very smart people, they like them,’ the president told reporters when asked for his stance on prediction markets.

Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have grown sharply in recent months, recording a combined $23.6 billion in trading volume in March alone.

CFTC Chair Asserts Agency’s Authority Over Prediction Markets

The regulatory picture surrounding prediction markets is just as unsettled as the political one. Brian Selig, confirmed as chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in December, sat down with reporters the day after Trump's initial criticism and laid out a firm position: his agency has both the authority and the responsibility to oversee this industry, not shut it down.

Selig pointed to the Commodity Exchange Act as the legal foundation for the CFTC's jurisdiction, which he said covers prediction markets broadly, including contracts tied to sports events. That interpretation is being challenged in more than 20 active lawsuits working through the courts, with legal observers suggesting the matter may ultimately land before the Supreme Court.

In March, the CFTC issued an advisory reaffirming its oversight role and opened a public comment period set to close at the end of April. After that window closes, Selig said the agency plans to move quickly on formal rulemaking proposals, which will then go through another round of public input.

He did not rule out restrictions on certain contract types, such as those resembling prop bets or parlays, but insisted any such changes must go through proper rulemaking channels rather than staff-level decisions. Selig pushed back firmly against the idea of the CFTC acting as a gatekeeper over which products Americans can access, framing the agency's role as one of setting boundaries rather than making judgment calls about market merit.

Congress, for its part, has introduced more than a dozen bills touching on prediction market regulation, though no unified legislative approach has emerged.