Revenue Projections and Gambling Addiction Raise Concerns Ahead of Missouri Launch

As Missouri prepares to introduce legal sports betting, critics have questioned whether the revenue promised during last year's ballot campaign will materialize and whether the state is adequately equipped to manage the risks associated with gambling. 

The legal Missouri sports betting market, approved by voters in last November, is scheduled to launch on Dec. 1. 

The "Winning for Missouri Education" campaign promoted the measure as a way to generate millions annually for K-12 and higher education through a 10% tax on sportsbook revenue. However, state reviews have cast doubt on the projected $38.7 million per year, with one auditor estimating that revenue could range from zero to $29 million.

Skeptics pointed out that operators can deduct Missouri sportsbook promos and federal taxes, which could mean a lot less taxable revenue in the first few years of the market. Some people also warned that even if new money does come in, lawmakers could use it to replace, not add to, current education funding, which would limit any net benefit to schools.

Alongside financial concerns, advocates have raised alarms about the state's readiness to address gambling addiction. Groups such as the Missouri Alliance to Curb Problem Gambling said expanded access through mobile betting could increase cases of financial distress, family conflict, and other severe harms. 

Although the law requires that at least $5 million, or 10% of the remaining tax proceeds, support the Compulsive Gambling Prevention Fund, experts fear that current resources may be insufficient if demand for treatment rises sharply after the market launches.

Projections show strong early wagering

Despite uncertainty over tax performance, independent analysts expect significant wagering activity when Missouri sports betting apps go live. Forecasts estimate a first-year handle of $3.88 billion, indicating strong bettor participation even as questions persist about long-term revenue. 

The Missouri Gaming Commission has granted licenses to several national operators, including DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM, setting the stage for a competitive market when operations launch.

According to betting analyst Christopher Boan, the projections draw on Missouri's 2025 population estimate and early wagering results from the comparable Colorado sports betting, Indiana sports betting, Maryland sports betting, Massachusetts sports betting, and Tennessee sports betting markets. Those states generated just over $1.1 billion in their first four months, averaging $279.6 million per month. 

Applying those patterns gives Missouri an estimated $1 billion in handle during its first four months and roughly $262.6 million per month thereafter. Boan said the model was imperfect, noting disruptions such as the Covid-19 pandemic and varying retail availability, but added that the launch timing could boost activity.

Missouri's major teams are entering key parts of their seasons, providing immediate wagering opportunities. The St. Louis Blues play the Anaheim Ducks on launch day and have three more games in the following week. Kansas City Chiefs fans will see betting options shortly after, with the team hosting the Houston Texans at Arrowhead Stadium on Dec. 7.