Polymarket Ceasefire Bets Trigger Insider Trading Concerns

Certain trades on a ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran on Polymarket have caused insider trading concerns after the anonymous users profited over $480,000.

Ziv Chen

Last Updated: April 9, 2026 11:19 AM EDT • 2 minute read

Pictured: The Strait of Hormuz is pictured as we look at potential insider trading concerns on Polymarket related to the ceasefire. Photo by Jonathan Raa / Sipa USA

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Over $170 million has been placed on Polymarket on bets regarding a ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran. It is among the biggest geopolitical markets on the platform. Besides the high volume of transactions, this increase in trading has attracted attention due to concerns about how prediction markets operate during global crises.

According to data from blockchain analytics firm Lookonchain, three anonymous users had managed to collect over $480,000 in profits after betting on a ceasefire by April 7 and selling their stake at higher prices. Analysts say the bets appear to have occurred at abnormal times and in large amounts, but no concrete evidence exists to prove insider trading.

Insider trading has been a focal point for prediction market apps.

At the same time, disputes over contract resolution have complicated payouts. The April 7 ceasefire market remains unsettled, leaving traders waiting more than two days to access winnings. Disagreements have centered on what qualifies as a ceasefire. This exposes a structural issue in prediction markets where real-world events rarely fit precise contractual definitions.

The market volume for that contract alone exceeds $60 million, and trading continues despite debates over the ultimate outcome. This illustrates the more significant issues that prediction markets will face as they develop.

The rate of growth of the user base and the amount of money involved will outpace that of the resolution and supervision mechanism. Although most insider trading allegations remain speculative, consistent and well-timed trading has increased demand for tighter regulation.

Platforms roll out safeguards as criticism intensifies

The latest issues arise as prediction markets have started implementing new policies designed to prevent insider trading. Both Kalshi and Polymarket introduced new restrictions aimed at reducing the possibility that traders with confidential knowledge trade on their own predictions.

For its part, Kalshi created a screening mechanism that prevents politicians, athletes, and other individuals with private information related to the industry from participating in markets associated with their activities. It claimed that it had already banned at least one political candidate. Additionally, Kalshi expanded the scope of its policy in order to prevent manipulation in college and professional sports.

As Kalshi admits, there is no way to guarantee complete security. Therefore, the company introduced an opportunity for users to become whistleblowers and report violations in specific markets using publicly available transactional data.

On the other hand, Polymarket has announced updated integrity guidelines that prohibit three activities: trading with illegally obtained confidential information, trading based on insider tips or recommendations, and active participation by individuals who influence the results.

However, such measures do not satisfy some critics. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez pointed out that the proposed guidelines fail to prevent insider trading because there is a broad spectrum of people with confidential information about a candidate or a market.

Written by:
Ziv Chen

Ziv has over two decades of experience in the igaming and sports betting industry, having served in senior marketing and business development positions with both B2C and B2B companies, including Playtech and Microgaming. In 2019, Ziv decided to pursue his passion for writing and became a fulltime industry journalist, covering casino, sports, and gambling business news. He’s specialties include casino games and technology, US state gambling regulation, company performance, as well as gambling affiliates and marketing. As a Pitt graduate, Ziv is a diehard fan of all Pittsburgh sports teams, with the Steelers at the top of the list. In his free time, he enjoys reading crime fiction, biographies (mainly of sports personalities, but not only) and American history. Ziv’s Favorite quote: “We're going to pursue perfection, knowing full well we won't catch it, but we're going to relentlessly chase it," Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers Head Coach.