Kalshi Sets a Single-Fight Trading Record at UFC 328

Sean Strickland's split-decision victory over Khamzat Chimaev at UFC 328 in Newark on Saturday night produced more than a title change. It produced the largest MMA market in Kalshi's history, with $52 million in total contract volume traded over the duration of the fight.  

To put that number in perspective, the entire UFC card slate on the platform was averaging roughly $3 million per day in the weeks prior. Strickland and Chimaev’s fight topped that average by more than 17 times.  

The fight opened with Chimaev priced at 82 cents per contract and Strickland at 19 cents, a spread that reflected both the champion's 15-0 record and the clinical nature of his title-winning performance against Dricus du Plessis, in which he controlled nearly the entire fight on the mat. The market consensus going in was clear. 

What unfolded over five rounds told a different story. Strickland's line held low early and began climbing steadily as he repeatedly defended Chimaev's takedown attempts and found his rhythm on the feet.  

The crossover point, where Strickland's probability ticked above Chimaev's on the live chart, arrived before the judges submitted their scorecards. By the time the result was announced, Strickland sat at 99 cents, and Chimaev had fallen to a single cent. 

Traditional sportsbooks had Chimaev priced between minus-500 and minus-590, and they paid for it. On DraftKings, 63% of the handle landed on Strickland at plus-380, leaving books exposed on the payout side when the underdog prevailed. 

Kalshi Hits $22-Billion Valuation with $178 Billion Traded in April 

The milestone fight handle arrived at a telling moment for Kalshi as a business. Just days before the UFC 328 card, the company announced it had closed a $1 billion Series F funding round, valuing it at $22 billion.  

Leading the round was investment firm Coatue. Andreessen Horowitz, ARK Invest, IVP, Morgan Stanley, Paradigm, and Sequoia Capital also participated. 

The rise reflects a shift in who is using the platform. Over the six months preceding the announcement, institutional trading volume on Kalshi grew 800%, while trading volume in April was up more than 200% compared to the previous year’s figure, growing from $5.5 billion to $178 billion year-on-year.  

The company says it now accounts for more than 90% of US prediction market activity and holds the majority of global volume. 

The new capital is intended to deepen Kalshi's reach into asset managers, hedge funds, insurance companies, and proprietary trading firms. Product expansions in the pipeline include block trading capabilities, additional risk products, and integrations designed specifically for institutional workflows. 

“There are few categories in recent history that have scaled this quickly outside of AI,” said Tarek Mansour, co-founder and CEO of Kalshi. “Event contracts could become a trillion-dollar market, and we’re still in the early stages of that transition.”