Kalshi and Polymarket Record Nearly $10 Billion in November Trading Volume

Kalshi and Polymarket closed November with their strongest month on record. They posted a combined trading volume of nearly $10 billion as both operators expanded market share and attracted heightened retail participation. 

The surge followed months of accelerating activity by both prediction market apps. Media integrations, increased liquidity, and a steady stream of headline-driven macro events drove the increase. 

Kalshi's monthly spot volume rose from $4.4 billion in October to $5.8 billion in November, a 32% month-over-month increase and the platform's largest single-month gain. Polymarket also posted a record high, with monthly volume rising from $3.02 billion to more than $3.7 billion, a 23.8% increase. 

November's performance also coincided with rapid capital formation. Kalshi doubled its valuation in recent weeks after securing $1 billion in new funding, bringing its valuation to $11 billion. Polymarket, meanwhile, has accelerated US expansion following a mid-November regulatory approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). 

The company has added major distribution partners, including Yahoo Finance, UFC, and Google Finance, which began integrating prediction market data into search results. 

Polymarket expands footprint

Polymarket has continued to broaden its profile as a crypto-based prediction venue that lets users take positions on political, economic, and cultural outcomes. In a 60 Minutes appearance, CEO Shayne Coplan framed the platform's markets as a real-time indicator of public expectations, with prices shifting in response to new information. 

The company's political markets drew significant attention during the 2024 US presidential election, where trading activity suggested that then-presidential nominee Donald Trump held a growing advantage, even as polling showed a tightening contest. Polymarket said roughly $3.6 billion was wagered on that single question. 

Activity has also expanded across international political events, including markets tied to developments in Venezuela and Ireland, as well as sports-related trading that mirrors the dynamics of financial markets.

The platform's next phase follows an Amended Order of Designation issued by the CFTC last month, which cleared Polymarket to operate as a fully regulated US prediction-market platform. The decision provides a formal regulatory pathway as the company expands distribution and user reach.

Nevada scrutiny intensifies

Record November trading coincided with increased regulatory scrutiny, particularly in Nevada. After the month-long volume spike, Kalshi faced mounting pressure when a federal judge lifted a temporary injunction that had allowed the company to operate in the state. 

Nevada Gaming Control Board Chairman Mike Dreitzer said the regulator had reached agreements with Robinhood and Crypto.com to suspend operations pending a hearing, but Kalshi did not agree to similar terms.

US District Court Judge Andrew Gordon ruled that treating Kalshi's contracts as federally regulated commodities would undermine state and tribal authority over sports wagering. He wrote that such an interpretation risked shifting significant control to the CFTC in ways not intended by Congress. 

Kalshi has always said that the CFTC has more authority to regulate than state gaming agencies. This has caused more legal problems as prediction market oversight changes.