Government Shutdown May Have Delayed Polymarket's US Return

Polymarket's long-awaited return to the US market may have been delayed by a technical issue caused by the federal government shutdown, according to industry sources. Now that the shutdown may be over, the operator could launch at any time.

The crypto-based prediction market app was set to relaunch domestically at the end of September after self-certifying a range of sports and event contracts with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), a key regulatory step toward operating legally in the country. However, the federal government shutdown that began on 1 October halted nearly all CFTC functions, pausing the approval process.

Under normal circumstances, the CFTC has one business day to object to a self-certified contract before it can go live. Because Polymarket's filings arrived just before the shutdown, that review period technically never occurred, leaving the company's US reentry in limbo. 

Legal experts familiar with CFTC procedure confirmed that the shutdown likely caused or at least contributed to the delay.

Polymarket was barred from US operations in 2022 following a settlement with the CFTC under which it paid a $1.4 million civil penalty and closed unapproved markets, including those tied to presidential elections. Since then, it has remained active in roughly 180 international markets while teasing a US relaunch. 

In July, founder and CEO Shayne Coplan announced that the federal probe into the company had ended, and in August, Polymarket began promoting plans to "legally trade football" in all 50 states by fall.

The company also made several key moves to reenter the regulated market, including acquiring federally regulated exchange QCX and securing investment commitments of up to $2 billion from Intercontinental Exchange, operator of the New York Stock Exchange. 

Despite months of preparation and marketing, the platform remains unavailable to US users after missing 10 weeks of NFL action  - an early advantage seized by competitor Kalshi, which has expanded its sports-related trading markets.

Valuation surges

Even as its US debut stalls, Polymarket's valuation has surged. According to Bloomberg, the company is holding early discussions with investors about a new funding round that could value it between $12 billion and $15 billion, more than ten times its worth only a few months ago.

In June, Peter Thiel's Founders Fund led a $200 million round valuing Polymarket at $1 billion. By November, Intercontinental Exchange said it would invest up to $2 billion in the firm at an $8 billion valuation, a deal that made Coplan one of the youngest self-made billionaires in the world. Polymarket declined to comment on the current talks.

Polymarket has announced new partnerships to strengthen its position, including acting as a clearinghouse for DraftKings' upcoming prediction-market product and signing a multiyear agreement with the NHL alongside Kalshi. 

The deals mark the first formal collaboration between a major U.S. sports league and prediction-market platforms.