The 10 Most Shocking NFL Player Props

The NFL regular season is right around the corner, and bettors can find an endless collection of available markets for player props at sportsbooks. And while most carry odds bettors will find reasonable, there are some that are truly baffling.

This is a look at the 10 most surprising NFL player props from Caesars, DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbooks.

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The 10 Most Shocking NFL Player Props

Zach Wilson Most Interceptions Thrown (+800, DraftKings)

The betting favorite to lead the NFL in interceptions thrown during the regular season, Wilson is all but guaranteed to be well behind the leader when he takes his first snap of the 2022 season.

Wilson underwent surgery to repair the meniscus in his right knee Aug. 16, and there still isn’t a concrete timeline for his return. Additionally, veteran quarterback Joe Flacco could hold onto the starting job longer than expected while Wilson ramps back up to full speed.

So, even after the second-year quarterback threw 11 picks and had a discouraging 55.6 completion percentage through 13 games last season, he shouldn’t have the shortest odds to lead the league in interceptions in 2022. 

Antonio Gibson Most Rushing Yards (+1500, Caesars)

Oddly, Gibson is still sporting the sixth-shortest odds to lead the NFL in rushing yards despite the Washington Commanders appearing set to deploy a running back committee consisting of Gibson, rookie Brian Robinson Jr. and pass-catching specialist J.K. McKissic. 

With McKissic likely to play in most passing situations, and Robinson potentially cutting into Gibson’s early-down work, Caesars clearly hasn’t adjusted its odds in accordance to the new outlook for the Washington backfield based on the developments during training camp and the preseason.

For reference, Gibson’s odds in this market are +3500 at DraftKings and +5000 at FanDuel.

Leonard Fournette Most Yards From Scrimmage (+2000, FanDuel)

The sixth-year running back totalled a career-high 1,674 yards from scrimmage during the 2019 season and still finished sixth in the NFL in the category; Fournette’s 1,266 total yards last year ranked 17th. 

With just eight players trading at lower odds than Fournette’s +2000 number to lead the league in yards from scrimmage during the 2022 regular season, the Buccaneer is probably mispriced in this market.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady paced the NFL in passing attempts and passing yards in 2021, and the offense projects to continue leaning on the vertical attack again in 2022. And while Fournette is a proven receiving asset, Brady also has a lot of weapons at his disposal. 

Ronald Jones Most Rushing Yards (+6000, DraftKings)

Recently reported to be on the Kansas City Chiefs roster bubble, Jones hasn’t played a single preseason snap with No. 1 quarterback Patrick Mahomes. With that in mind, it’s safe to slot Jones in as the No. 4 running back behind Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Jerick McKinnon and rookie Isiah Pacheco. 

Entering his fifth season after being selected in the second round of the 2018 draft by Tampa Bay, Jones has never topped 200 carries or 1,000 rushing yards. 

Jones’ DraftKings odds to lead the league in rushing yards don’t align with his projected role or his past production.

Stefon Diggs Most Receptions (+750, Caesars)

The two-time Pro Bowl wide receiver paced the NFL in both receptions (127) and receiving yards (1,535) in 2020, but he only hauled in 103 passes last year with an extra game on the schedule.

Barring injury, Diggs projects to remain among the reception leaders, but he shouldn’t be priced this low with the surplus of assets in the Buffalo Bills offense.

Fellow wide receiver Gabriel Davis is expected to be a priority target in the passing attack, and speedy slot receiver Isaiah McKenzie is having a strong preseason. Add four running backs with pass-catching chops, and there probably won’t be enough targets for Diggs to pace the league in receptions. 

Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 850.5 Receiving Yards (-120, DraftKings)

With St. Brown having capped off his rookie season with 51 receptions for 560 yards through the final six games of the 2021 campaign, this total definitely appears within reach. 

St. Brown finished with 912 receiving yards last year, so there’s even wiggle room for negative regression and the Over can still hit. Plus, unlike last year, St. Brown enters his second season as the No. 1 target for quarterback Jared Goff.

Add a second offseason to fine-tune chemistry with Goff to St. Brown’s motivation, and the second-year receiver is positioned to clear this yardage total with ease. 

Jerry Jeudy Most Receiving Yards (+2500, DraftKings)

The entire Denver Broncos offense should benefit from the addition of nine-time Pro Bowl quarterback Russell Wilson, but he can’t possibly elevate Jeudy into superstar territory and help the third-year wide receiver lead the league in receiving yards, right?

Jeudy has flashed upside through his first two seasons in the league, but he’s still totalled just 90 receptions for 1,323 yards across 26 career games.

By comparison, Buffalo Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs paced the NFL with 1,535 receiving yards in 2020, and Los Angeles Rams wideout Cooper Kupp posted a gaudy 1,947 league-leading mark last year.

Allen Lazard Over 5.5 Receiving Touchdowns (-120, DraftKings)

As long as Lazard remains healthy, he should find the end zone at least six times in 2022. 

The 26-year-old wide receiver caught eight touchdowns through the final 10 games of 2021, and he’s going to open this season as the No. 1 receiver for the Green Bay Packers with Davante Adams dealt to the Las Vegas Raiders during the offseason.

As the likely focal point of opposing secondaries, Lazard will probably have a learning curve ahead, and he’s hardly a proven game-in, game-out producer. Still, with four-time MVP quarterback Aaron Rodgers looking his way, Lazard is set up to build on his strong finish to the 2021 campaign. 

J.C. Jackson Most Interceptions (+700, FanDuel)

After undergoing ankle surgery Tuesday, Jackson is expected to be sidelined for two to four weeks; despite this, he still sports the second-shortest odds to lead the NFL in regular-season interceptions at FanDuel.

The recovery timeline will likely keep the 2021 Pro Bowl cornerback out for the season opener against the Las Vegas Raiders, and the Los Angeles Chargers visit the Kansas City Chiefs for Thursday Night Football in Week 2. The short turnaround obviously isn’t ideal for Jackson returning against the Chiefs, either. 

With the potential to miss two games out of the gate, Jackson’s chances of pacing the NFL in interceptions during the 2022 regular season take a considerable hit – even if he’s finished runner-up in picks in each of the past two years.

Kayvon Thibodeaux Defensive Rookie of the Year (+600, Caesars)

The fifth overall selection in the 2022 NFL Draft sustained an MCL sprain in his right knee during Sunday’s preseason game and is expected to miss three to four weeks with the injury. 

Thibodeaux also missed time earlier this offseason with a hip injury, and the Oregon product was widely billed as a raw prospect by pundits ahead of April’s draft. Simply put, acclimatizing to the NFL is difficult from the sidelines.

As a result, he’ll have an uphill climb to win the Defensive Rookie of the Year Award and probably shouldn’t have the second-shortest odds to achieve the feat. 

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