StatDude - Tennis 9/16/2012

[statdude]

Hi all,

been having some success with tennis (baseball as well, football isn't so kind). thought i'd come here to discuss matches and post my plays. I'm verified at 61-20 +31.68 units since posting a record (pm for verification info).

Ekaterina Makarova -345 v hercog

Makarova as a favorite on hard court outside Europe last 1 year...11-0 54.2% ROI
Hercog as a dog on HC outside Europe last 1 year.. 3-14 negative 57% ROI


Polona Hercog has lost 4 of last 5 in Asia.
Polona Hercog has won 6 of last 7 at WTA International level.
Polona Hercog has lost 4 in a row when Opponent is a Left Hander.
Ekaterina Makarova has won 5 in a row when priced as Moderate Favourite ($1.20 to $1.499).



Youzhny -650 versus pospisil

My style generally favors chalk, I often round robin and parlay them to reduce juice, but only track straight results.

GL

[RosieTheGreat]

wait. are you seriously laying $650 to win $100

[horja1]

wait. are you seriously laying $650 to win $100

and betting on Youzhny?

[statdude]

I know, I know, it seems crazy. But yes, my strategy includes heavy favorites. Even favorites of -2000 or more. If there's value, I play it. I don't care if it's 20 to win 1, or 1 to win 20. Am I recommending to play more than your standard wager on a heavy favorite? No. Flat betting works too. But for tracking purposes, everything is "to win" units.

On to the Youzhny play... Youz is on a bit of a skid of late, and I think he will be motivated to win in his home country as the #1 seed. I am not doubting Pospisil, who has performed well lately and is good as an underdog. I think this play has a small edge for Youz and will play it small.

Youzhny on hard court in Russia or Europe as a favorite - 33-11, 7.2% ROI (9-2 22% last year)
Youzhny has won 11 of last 12 when Opponent is a Big Server.
Pospisil has lost 4 in a row when priced as Heavy Underdog ($6.00+).

[statdude]

Added:
Makarova -345

Polona Hercog has lost 4 of last 5 in Asia.
Polona Hercog has lost 4 in a row when Opponent is a Left Hander.
Ekaterina Makarova has won 5 in a row when priced as Moderate Favourite ($1.20 to $1.499).
Hercog as a dog on HC outside Europe last 1 year.. 3-14 negative 57% ROI

Makarova as a favorite on hard court outside Europe last 1 year...
11-0 54.2% ROI

[statdude]

Upcoming leans
J Hampton
J Janowicz

[statdude]

Yannick Mertens has lost 6 in a row when priced as Moderate Underdog ($3.00 to $5.999).
Jerzy Janowicz has won 8 of last 9 in Poland.
Jerzy Janowicz has won 11 of last 12 in Europe.
Jerzy Janowicz has won 10 in a row on Clay.
Jerzy Janowicz has won 10 in a row at Challenger level.
Jerzy Janowicz has won 11 in a row when priced as Moderate Favourite ($1.20 to $1.499).

J Janowicz Past year: 23-5 42.2% ROI on Clay

Adding: Janowicz -335 2u

[statdude]

Adding: Vagnozzi -165 Trnava Ch (SVK) - Clay, Round of 32. Best of 3 sets.
vs Navarro

4-0 H2H (all on Clay)
Vagnozzi 30-6 20.5% roi as a fav on clay
Navarro 10-33 -28% roi as a dog on clay

[statdude]

Makarova -345
Janowicz -335
Vagnozzi -165
Youzhny -650

Added plays:
Stakhovsky -285
15-4 as a HC fav last yr 29% ROI... while Andreev is 2-9 as a HC dog.
Andreev has lost 13 in a row when priced as Moderate Underdog ($3.00 to $5.999).
Sergiy Stakhovsky has won 7 in a row when priced as Moderate Favourite ($1.20 to $1.499).
Klizan -750
7-0 as a fav of 1.5 or better on HC.
Martin Klizan has won 6 in a row when priced as Heavy Favourite (<$1.20).
Michail Elgin has lost 5 in a row in Russia.

[statdude]

Added: Volandri -335
4-0 H2h
23-4 11.9% ROI last year on clay as a fav of 1.5 or better
Why shouldn't Volandri take his younger countryman to school at home in russia?

[statdude]

Added;
Scheepers -150
Cervenak +185

[statdude]

Posted:
Makarova -345
Janowicz -335
Vagnozzi -165
Youzhny -650
Scheepers -150
Cervenak +185 (2u Dog Bomb)
Volandri -335 (retired)
Klizan -750
Stakhovsky -285

Verified Record

65 -

22

+32.83u

[statdude]

66 - 23, +$31.8u

Makarova -345
Janowicz -335
Vagnozzi -165
Youzhny -650
Scheepers -150
Cervenak +185 (2u Dog Bomb)
Volandri -335 (retired)
Klizan -750
Stakhovsky -285 (cancelled?)

Adding 9/19:
Janowicz -900 v Smimov
Youzhny -825 v Ram
Paszek -1500 v So-Ra Lee
Tursunov -675 v Middelkoop
Scheepers -118 v Radwanska
Youzhny -800 v Ram
Karlovik -120 v Granollers

(Playing as round robin by 2's at BO and 5D. Record is to win 1u.)

[statdude]

Adding - Kanepi -310 v Bertens. She kills in Asia and is unproven. This line will drop.

Sorry, no time for write ups. Gl all !

Edit: Adding Klizan -145

[statdude]

Makarova -345
Janowicz -335
Vagnozzi -165
Youzhny -650
Scheepers -150
Cervenak +185 (2u Dog Bomb)
Volandri -335 (retired)
Klizan -750
Stakhovsky -285 (cancelled?)
Janowicz -900 v Smimov
Youzhny -825 v Ram
Paszek -1500 v So-Ra Lee
Tursunov -675 v Middelkoop
Scheepers -118 v Radwanska
Karlovik -120 v Granollers
Klizan -145 v Bolelli
Kanepi -310 v Bertens
Lepchenko -160 v Paszek
Gimeno-Traver -116



Adding:

[statdude]

Adding Janowicz -270

GL today all

Updated record

79

-25

+43.45 U, so about a 12 unit run on this SBR thread