WTA Championships: Doha

[EaglesPhan36]

TO WIN WTA SONY ERICSSON CHAMP (2008)

79201 JELENA JANKOVIC +300
79202 SERENA WILLIAMS +325
79203 ANA IVANOVIC +450
79204 DINARA SAFINA +500
79205 VENUS WILLIAMS +550
79206 ELENA DEMENTIEVA +850
79207 VERA ZVONAREVA +1250
79208 SVETLANA KUZNETSOVA +1500

Feel free to add your thoughts on who you like to win. I'm gonna do some research and post some of that stuff tomorrow. Believe the first matches are Tuesday in the early/overnight hours. Remember this is Round Robin format.

1st Round Match-ups

Tue 11/4 351 D. Safina +330
02:00 AM 352 S. Williams -360

Tue 11/4 361 E. Dementieva +210
02:00 AM 362 V. Williams -230

Tue 11/4 301 J. Jankovic -135
02:00 AM 302 A. Ivanovic +125

Tue 11/4 311 S. Kuznetsova -105
02:00 AM 312 V. Zvonareva -105

One thing to note quickly as I looked around, I believe Dementieva, Jankovic, Venus & Serena are the only ones with Championships experience.

Dementieva: 0 for her last 9 in the Championships. Only one win in 13 matches. Eliminate her from your futures, right?

[meganie]

They all, but Safina have experience.

If I'd to go with value, I probably would choose Ivanovic. Otherwise it would be Jankovic. But WTA tournament are way too unpredictable imo (beside the last ones), so I'm gonna sit out on futures.

Which matches I like:
Jankovic at -135: Will wait a little bit and see, if the line moves.
Zvonareva at -105.

[wannabet]

One bet, Kuznetsova -105 . How can Safina be +330, but only +500 for the championship? That looks horrible. Maybe she is worth it at +330, or Serena just owns her that much.

[EaglesPhan36]

Alright, after looking at the Round Robin match-ups, here's what I'm looking at:

WHITE GROUP
1. Jankovic
4. Ivanovic
6. Kuznetsova
8. Zvonareva

Analysis: I actually like this draw alot for Ivanovic to be one of the two who comes out of this group. She's dominated Jankovic with the head-2-head to the tune of 6-1. Ana probably played her best tennis since the French in winning the Linz tournament at the end of October. Kuznetsova & Zvonareva may very well be playing an elimination match first up as neither has had great success against Jankovic or Ivanovic. Kuznetsova-Jankovic could potentially be the match I see as far as finding that second person to advance. Kuznetsova leads the head-2-head there 4-3 and took 2 of 3 from Jankovic, although Jankovic won the last meeting in September. Jankovic seemed overmatched last year in the Championships when she went 0-3, eventually withdrawing in her final match. Kuznetsova has not progressed past the Round Robin stage either in her 3 trips to the Championships. Jankovic played so well this summer that it's hard not to like her on the surface especially with close to three weeks off to rest since her loss on mid October.

1. Jankovic
4. Ivanovic
(Dark Horse: Kuznetsova)

MAROON GROUP
2. Safina
3. Serena
5. Dementieva
7. Venus

Analysis: The highest seed here - Safina - could actually be the longest shot to make it out of this group. Safina had a great run this summer and into the fall, but she has not had a great deal of success against either of the Williams sisters, 1-3 vs. Serena and 0-1 against Venus, a loss coming in September in straight sets. Safina does have an edge against Dementieva, winning 3 of 4 matches from her this year, although the lone loss did come on the hard court in Beijing. The other wins were on clay(2) & grass. Serena seems well equipped to inflict some damage in this group with the edge over Safina, I think the edge over her sister (on this surface) after what we saw at the US Open & she could have added motivation against Dementieva who beat her the last two times after Serena dominated the first four career match-ups. To me, Venus is the wildcard. She'll have to beat Safina as she did back in September and then gain a split against her sister and Dementieva. Venus beat Dementieva 2 of 3, but the lone win for the Russian did come on the hard court back in 2004. Dementieva? She's capable, but I think her recent form says she probably will have it tough here. She did win at Luxembourg in October, but the draw was fairly pedestrian compared to the Championships. Before that, she had really been in a rut since the US Open, losing in her 2nd match in three successive tourneys. And as I outlined earlier, Dementieva has had very little success at the Championships over the years with a 1-12 record. So that leaves the Williamses & Safina to fight it out in my opinion. With Serena, one has to guess as to what her fitness will be since she hasn't played since September. That could leave her fresh or rusty. Her track record at the Championships is good however. Venus had success in her two visits to the Championships, but this is her first crack since 2002. And Safina is the first timer, so really this group is tough to predict. But I'll go with the experience here.

3. Serena
7. Venus

So I've got Jankovic, Ivanovic, Serena & Venus. Still thinking about who I like the best of those 4 to take a shot at in the futures..... will be back later with those picks.

[wannabet]

Maybe a dumb question, but what was going on there for a while, they had Safina vs. Venus up, and Safina versus Serena was either off the books, or not listed. So, who is Safina playing first, Venus or Serena? haha, I find better info on this site than I do on the regular sports pages, really have liked some of the tennis knowledge I am finding from you regular posters here. thanks all

[EaglesPhan36]

http://www.sonyericsson-championships.com/1/en/results/

Straight from the WTA site: Safina vs. Venus

[meganie]

Venus.

Check out this site for further infos:

http://www.sonyericsson-championships.com/1/en/results/

I actually like the current price for Jankovic vs. Ivanovic a lot. Thinking of playing it at -125. I know h2h speaks for Ivanovic, but the last time they both met was at Roland Garros, we all know who won there, and we all know that Jankovic improved her game in the last few months. It was close there with a Ivanovic in top form and a weaker Jankovic than currently. Ana had 1 1/2 good tournaments the last couple of months, while Jelena showed that she was in top form. And that's the reason I like it so much.

[meganie]

Oops, Eagles was faster.

I agree with most of your write-up, just one thing I wouldn't read too much into it is the h2h between several players. E.g. Safina improved her game this year a lot and so did Zvonareva.

[EaglesPhan36]

I agree head-2-heads can be misleading in some cases, but I don't look strictly at wins & losses always - surface, form, etc. I all roll it into one when considering whether a head-2-head is really advantageous. Some are easy, like Jankovic-Zvonareva where JJ has won 3 straight since September. A Venus-Safina head-2-head is just one match, so you have to think hard on it, but the circumstances to me show that Venus should have an edge since she beat Safina on the surface the Russian had alot of her success on this year, while Venus did not do great on hard courts.

Ivanovic-Jankovic ... that one I agree, the wins were a while back, but I think Jankovic being fatigued in her last tournament and playing more tennis that I think any of these other ladies ... plus Ana regaining some form are what tells me that I like Ivanovic - at least in that group to get one of the two semi final spots, she may not necessarily beat Jankovic, but I think she matches up favorably against all 3. She of course has to maintain her consistency.

[meganie]

I agree head-2-heads can be misleading in some cases, but I don't look strictly at wins & losses always - surface, form, etc. I all roll it into one when considering whether a head-2-head is really advantageous. Some are easy, like Jankovic-Zvonareva where JJ has won 3 straight since September. A Venus-Safina head-2-head is just one match, so you have to think hard on it, but the circumstances to me show that Venus should have an edge since she beat Safina on the surface the Russian had alot of her success on this year, while Venus did not do great on hard courts.

I concur.

Ivanovic-Jankovic ... that one I agree, the wins were a while back, but I think Jankovic being fatigued in her last tournament and playing more tennis that I think any of these other ladies ... plus Ana regaining some form are what tells me that I like Ivanovic - at least in that group to get one of the two semi final spots, she may not necessarily beat Jankovic, but I think she matches up favorably against all 3. She of course has to maintain her consistency.

I would take Ivanovic in top form any day over Jankovic in top form. The question is, if she is really in top form. One tournament doesn't tell me enough, especially as she struggled the months before.

If Ivanovic IS in top shape, I could see her easily coming to the finals, if she doesn't have to play Serena in the semi. Venus is no consideration for me, Jankovic beat her recently and I would see her sister and Ivanovic (in top/good form) above her.

Have you decided yet concerning the futures? Just my opinion, but I think Serena is maybe the safest pick for the final. I see her winning the group and than either playing Jankovic or Ivanovic, which will be decided in their meeting imo. In any case a very even tournament. I couldn't decide the winner yet. Maybe I'll play some futures after the first match days.

[meganie]

Something different: With Nadal out and not in best form recently, do you think Argentina winning the Davis cup at -150 is a quite safe bet? Especially on carpet with Nalbandian and Del Potro. Spain has basically nothing behind Nadal, they've got an out-of-form Ferrer, an ok-playing Verdasco, an not-good-in-form Robredo, an out-of-form Almagro, a narrow-game Lopez and a reconvalescent Ferrero. None of them are nearly as good as Nalbandian and Del Potro at the moment. So Argentina has basically two victories for sure, even with Nadal. And I don't know, if Nadal can beat them both, especially on that surface with his recent form.

Btw, do you know who will play doubles for Argentina? I guess doubles should be a pretty safe victory for Spain with Lopez/Verdasco (?).

[EaglesPhan36]

They've used Canas & Nalbandian as doubles partners in the last two rounds of Davis Cup play in 2008. Nalbandian & Acasuso in the 1st. You would think Argentina has a great shot with the better singles players.

[EaglesPhan36]

FUTURES PICKS
Serena +325
Ivanovic +450

The one I'll be least surprised to see from the pack to win at a good value is Venus Williams. Just think she's got something to prove like her sister at this stage and the scramble to start next year off higher in the rankings will provide most all these girls with motivation.

[EaglesPhan36]

Zvonareva finishing off Kuznetsova in straights. Ivanovic-Jankovic is next.

[EaglesPhan36]

Ivanovic played like a dog today for sure. If she serves like she did today against Zvonareva or Kuznetsova, she'll lose again.

[EaglesPhan36]

Inexperience shines with Safina. She had Venus dead-to-rights in the first set, up 4-1 I think and wound up losing in straights.

[meganie]

Ivanovic played like a dog today for sure. If she serves like she did today against Zvonareva or Kuznetsova, she'll lose again.

I don't think that the serve was her biggest problem. She had 6 aces. But Jankovic returned well imo and she made too many easy errors from the base line. Nevertheless she is probably a play for tomorrow.

Safina played unbelievable in the early first set, her serve was horrible the second half, which cost her the first set and eventually the match imo.

What I like for tomorrow:
V. Williams [vs. Dementieva] as part of a parlay. I got her earlier at -263.
Ivanovic [vs. Zvonareva], currently a no play, I'm waiting for some line movement. Probably will pull the trigger at approximately -120 or -110.

[meganie]

Ivanovic [vs. Zvonareva], currently a no play, I'm waiting for some line movement. Probably will pull the trigger at approximately -120 or -110.

And the line is moving and moving...
Wouldn't be surprised to see Zvonareva even or as slight favorite going into the match.

[EaglesPhan36]

Well that's disappointing that Ivanovic wasn't better. I didn't get to see much, so was looking mostly on stats as far as her serve. Jankovic didn't appear to be that great serving either, but did enough.

[meganie]

Well that's disappointing that Ivanovic wasn't better. I didn't get to see much, so was looking mostly on stats as far as her serve. Jankovic didn't appear to be that great serving either, but did enough.

I still think that she can make it to the semi final, the Zvonareva-Kuznetsova match wasn't really high quality. Zvonareva was less bad, but far from top form imo from what I saw in the second set (missed the first one).

Jankovic was ok, she was better in the first set, in the second set she was too passive and nearly got burned by it. Yes, her serving wasn't the greatest, but that never was her strength, I guess.

I think all players have some issues with the wind, at least it appeared to me like that. I noticed that there were more double faults on one side of the court than one the other, but that's maybe just coincidence.

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah I thought I read about the wind playing a role. Hopefully that improves because those sort of things make every match up in the air. Hopefully Serena comes out and sets the tone tomorrow with a win.

[EaglesPhan36]

Whoever scheduled this tournament is a moron.

Wednesday's Matches
1. Ivanovic vs. Zvonareva
2. Dementieva vs. V.Williams
3. Safina vs. S.Williams

Wouldn't it make more sense to have Serena & Dementieva play each other since they haven't played? Seems an advantage goes probably to the players who have played a match on the surface honestly.

[EaglesPhan36]

Looks like the Ivanovic future is toast. Man she sucked.

Zvonareva wins in 3 sets.

[meganie]

Looks like the Ivanovic future is toast. Man she sucked,

Yeah, really thought that she had found her form.

[EaglesPhan36]

I though she'd at least win against the Russians in her group. She just had very little consistency at all on-serve from what I gather. That's always a killer.

[EaglesPhan36]

Venus beat Dementieva today. Serena wrapping up a win over Safina.

[meganie]

Guess the semi finals are pretty clear. Think Serena will beat her sister and Jankovic will probably win against Kuznetsova and Zvonareva.

Jankovic - Venus
Zvonareva - Serena

Could be a final Jankovic-Serena, Venus didn't serve very well today.

[EaglesPhan36]

Kuznetsova is really the only one who could F up the White Group if she beats Jankovic. Always a possibility if her head is on straight. Curious to see how hard Venus tries against Serena.

[meganie]

Kuznetsova is in a little slump, I think. She didn't play her best tennis in Moscow and she looked terrible against Zvonareva yesterday.

And I don't think that Venus is going to play 100%. She has her ticket for the semi final pretty much and knows that her sister needs this win. Besides, I think Serena is the better player of them at the moment.

I think a Jankovic/S. Williams parlay looks solid.

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah I think parlays or playing the spread for the amount of games is the only way you can bet most of these Round Robin ones at the prices. That Safina-Dementieva match is interesting, but you can't really extract an edge for either player with how they've played thus far.

Best case scenario for my futures bet is that Serena beats Venus and Safina beats Dementieva.

[meganie]

Yeah I think parlays or playing the spread for the amount of games is the only way you can bet most of these Round Robin ones at the prices. That Safina-Dementieva match is interesting, but you can't really extract an edge for either player with how they've played thus far.

Best case scenario for my futures bet is that Serena beats Venus and Safina beats Dementieva.

You're right, Dementieva at that price against a quality player is suicide, backing Safina with her serving like that not a choice either.

Doesn't look good for Jankovic, something with her hip, medical timeout.

[EaglesPhan36]

Apparently this Williams vs. Williams match is pretty bad. Both serving like shit. Serena had a chance to take a strangle hold at 5-2, but double faulted to 4-3.

[meganie]

I usually don't post "locks", but this is one, I guess. Slapstick comedy, Venus is letting Serena win, otherwise I will be veeeeeery surprised.

[EaglesPhan36]

Serena must be playing like ass then because she doesn't seem to want to win.

[meganie]

Serena must be playing like ass then because she doesn't seem to want to win.

They don't want it look that obvious.
No, really, I'm not saying that they fixed this, it just seems to me like this a lot. Venus wins second, Serena third, that's my guess.

And Venus is playing great the second set.