Taking Murray to Beat Djokovic in the Finals!

EaglesPhan36 · 09-09-12, 05:24 PM

You're such a dork Goat. You don't care about making money ... bullshit.

Murray can't afford to be defensive with Djokovic. Djokovic does every thing Murray can do at an A+ level. Outside of the match with the wind vs. Berdych, the game plan with Lendl in the corner is to be aggressive. That's how he played him in the semis in Australia and at the Olympics.

Ferrer is the master craftsman of defensive tennis and you saw what happened today. Over the course of a match, if that is how you play - Djokovic is a better shot maker and defender than anyone on tour. You will not beat him in a Best of 5 trying to defend.

Goat Milk · 09-09-12, 06:23 PM

But you misread what I said.

It's to bait Djokovic with defense. Not just be defensive. Bait him for the running forehand. Ferrer plays D but he can't turn D into offense with one groundstroke like Murray can.

Murray has more power on the run than Djokovic.

Goat Milk · 09-09-12, 06:26 PM

Whatever Eagles. Go lay -250 on Djokovic bro. That price is just stupidity. If I was a linemaker my line would be Djokovic -170

h3da · 09-09-12, 07:28 PM

-4.5 games for me

EaglesPhan36 · 09-09-12, 07:53 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

Whatever Eagles. Go lay -250 on Djokovic bro. That price is just stupidity. If I was a linemaker my line would be Djokovic -170

Did I say I was laying anything on anyone? If you read my stuff, you know that I am a closet Murray fan and am probably one of the few who really want to see the kid get that Slam title so we can move on into an Era of just phenomenal rivalry tennis with Djokovic, Murray and Nadal all in their primes or close to it.

I rarely bet a side at all in Slam finals. I usually go prop shopping or play a total. I let all the smart peeps try to figure out who is better at what on a side. To me there is usually better stuff to find on the off markets rather than the sides everyone else wants to play. I don't think Murray has more power than Djokovic in any shot IMO. Maybe can equal him pop wise in a few things, but power + accuracy, I'd take Djokovic all day based on what he has shown here in the last couple of matches. His ability to extend and still hit shots with power and balls-on accuracy has been amazing.

GoBlue77 · 09-10-12, 12:59 AM

i said before the tourney started joker would win so i gotta go with that but im not touching no -275 crazy stuff.

if anything i'd take murray for fun. +235

MeatWad · 09-10-12, 02:57 AM

Originally posted by GoBlue77

i said before the tourney started joker would win so i gotta go with that but im not touching no -275 crazy stuff.

if anything i'd take murray for fun. +235

  

I agree with Eagles, Murray is definitely going to have to be aggressive, take chances, and not play defensively as he has in the past vs Djok. Like Eagles said Lendl has improved Murray's aggression as well as his mental toughness. No coincidence that since Lendl has become his coach you don't see nearly as much of that whiney, hamstring grabbing shit Murray used to pull during matches. He is more focused to play cut throat, stoic tennis with Ivan in his corner.

These finals spreads seem too tight. While Djoker should win based on his current form, past history vs Murray, and his dominance on hard courts in general, especially at majors, it is impossible for me to back him here at that price. Murray has gradually improved in the past year, especially in his intangible qualities where Lendl has helped, while Djok has dropped off a tad from his historically dominant 2011 year.

Should be a great match, if you are backing Murray you should probably hope for less than ideal weather conditions. Djok seemed to struggle much more in the damp windy weather vs Ferrer. Murray actually excelled at the Wimbledon finals in less than ideal conditions, until they put up the roof, then there was a complete 180 in match momentum. The confidence boast from winning the Olympics and beating Djok(and Federer) there should help Murray's chances as a clear underdog here, GL!

Dr.Gonzo · 09-10-12, 03:07 AM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

Murray isn't going to fold up mentally, I can assure you of that.

How exactly can you make that assurance?

Dr.Gonzo · 09-10-12, 03:09 AM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

Whatever Eagles. Go lay -250 on Djokovic bro. That price is just stupidity. If I was a linemaker my line would be Djokovic -170

There's a reason you're not a linesmaker, I laid -220. If I could have got on with a UK book at -200 I would have max bet it.

MeatWad · 09-10-12, 03:43 AM

Originally posted by Dr.Gonzo

How exactly can you make that assurance?

Observing his matches definitely indicates his mental meltdowns/outburst have become more infrequent. Noone in the world can touch Djok at this venue if he is playing optimally though.

Dr.Gonzo · 09-10-12, 03:56 AM

Originally posted by MeatWad

Observing his matches definitely indicates his mental meltdowns/outburst have become more infrequent. Noone in the world can touch Djok at this venue if he is playing optimally though.

I rate Murray's technique and game but he's still a flower. I'd be surprised if we don't see a lot of head shaking and box rants when he is put under pressure. Joker has really been on his game this tournament, Murray's going to feel like he's playing a brick wall at times. Can he really deal with that in a grand slam final?

MeatWad · 09-10-12, 04:05 AM

Originally posted by Dr.Gonzo

I rate Murray's technique and game but he's still a flower. I'd be surprised if we don't see a lot of head shaking and box rants when he is put under pressure. Joker has really been on his game this tournament, Murray's going to feel like he's playing a brick wall at times. Can he really deal with that in a grand slam final?

True, playing Joker at the US Open finals is going to test his nerves like no other. Definitely can see him feeling helpless after a while. Unable to see any way to exploit Joker's game, Murray might start the bitching and moaning.

I think I reminisce too much on how tough Lendl used to be and mistakenly transfer his icey veins and stoic demeanor to Murray. Murray has toughened up some, but this venue and this opponent could easily have him grabbing at phantom injuries and crying towards his mommy.

Snowball · 09-10-12, 07:44 AM

I think the only way Murray could beat Djoker is by bringing him to the net.
He can't sit back and trade forehands and backhands. Djoker can hit those back
all day long. Murray has a good serve and that may keep him in the match but it
won't be enough to win on its own. I think he has to find a way to draw Djoker
forward. IMO Murray is the superior player close to the net.

Brooklyn Dick · 09-10-12, 09:02 AM

What the last poster says is right on. If Murray trades groundstrokes he cannot win. I like Joker a lot here even though it will be tight. At some point Murray will have his usual fit and Joker will take advantage.

One thing about Joker, he won't get rattled and he just plays solid tennis. Where you know what can happen with Murray. We have seen it before. When he starts with the phoney injuries go to live betting on Joker.

At -230 I like Joker.

zoo youk · 09-10-12, 09:08 AM

Originally posted by Snowball

I think the only way Murray could beat Djoker is by bringing him to the net.
He can't sit back and trade forehands and backhands. Djoker can hit those back
all day long. Murray has a good serve and that may keep him in the match but it
won't be enough to win on its own. I think he has to find a way to draw Djoker
forward. IMO Murray is the superior player close to the net.

Murrays serve is not going to keep him in or win the match like you said. watching the Del Po match DelPo was like 80% first serve in the first set crushing them at like 125+ and Jokovic was returning them and still winning the majority of the points. it was amazing. I expect more of the same tonight.

MeatWad · 09-10-12, 02:35 PM

Originally posted by zoo youk

Murrays serve is not going to keep him in or win the match like you said. watching the Del Po match DelPo was like 80% first serve in the first set crushing them at like 125+ and Jokovic was returning them and still winning the majority of the points. it was amazing. I expect more of the same tonight.

Agree, Djoker is the best service returner in the history of the game. Murray has only gotten 2.17 aces/match more than Djoker anyway at the Open this year, some of that due to playing longer matches.

Murray might capatilize off more serve and volleying, forcing the action and taking more chances himself. . Murray is clearly inferior trading groundstrokes with Djoker, soo he will need to take chances and play a higher variance style, like bad poker players should do against those they perceive to have a long term edge, take chances and hope for some postive variance.

MUHerd37 · 09-10-12, 03:11 PM

Too much wind. Murray is gonna win. It's his summer.

Goat Milk · 09-10-12, 03:12 PM

you guys are underestimating Murray's baseline game big time

no one can turn defense to offense like Murray. He is the best there is at it.

We'll see.

Goat Milk · 09-10-12, 03:35 PM

Looks like I'm right so far Eagles. Lendel gameplan is to stay someone defensive and let Novak make errors. When he's gotten that running forehand. back on offense

Dr.Gonzo · 09-10-12, 08:40 PM

Well done to Murray backers.

Goat Milk's opinion on Murray's baseline game was validated, although I think the wind was an advantage to him.

Murray did well to come out strongly in the fifth with the momentum against him.