My first round US Open dogs

[JNic]

Kamke +250 vs Hewitt - Hewitt will have to be on point to beat Kamke, who when he's on he will be a backboard and really be aggressive on Hewitt's serve. Hewitt put up a shit show against Troicki and is just too overrated here with the line. Kamke showed good form in Washington and can easily take out Hewitt.

Russell +415 vs Simon - Simon has been shitty his recent grand slams not to mention he had to pull out of canada masters with injury and hasn't really been that good lately. Russell had his little peak early on in the US open series and I think he can regain some of that form.

Haase +130 vs F.Lopez - Feli Lopez has been declining and I just don't have enough trust in him to play his best in a best of 5, Haase has been bad this year but his run in Kitzubel was a strong title defense and he's shown up at Us open before.

Becker +178 vs Harrison - Harrison has been really bad and has been really defensive in his tough summer, his serve can still be huge but it's just expected he wins here. Becker is nearing the end of his days and has always been strong on US hardcourts and if he is playing really aggressive he can take Harrison out of his comfort zone again and the match can be on his racket.

Andujar +270 vs Bellucci - Bellucci is getting too much love here because of his strong euro clay run and his match vs Tsonga at the olympics, also showed some confidence in doubles against the Bryan bros. Bellucci last year tried to play all in the US before US open and it failed horribly this year he's trying it different by coming off of euro clay form. He is 2 and 0 against Andujar but this line is too big. Andujar has been playing the US Open series consistently and if Bellucci is going off on his unforced error tangent then Andujar can easily trouble him big time

[EaglesPhan36]

Only thing I will say is me/we/you have to be careful in evaluating actual upset possibilities vs. the lines. Most of the lines at Slams involving a name player are going to be too far slanted in their favor, but that doesn't always mean we should go on the other side. It's the age old value argument. People will bang home the point all day that so & so is value in this spot. Let's not forget, there is no value in a losing pick.

I agree with the points you make for pretty much all of these, but disagree on taking some of these guys. Kamke to me is appropriately priced. The guy is a shit sandwich. Sure, Hewitt could show up in poor form and wank out - but at a Slam, I'd take him ten times out of ten against Kamke. Others might have a shot although I'm still not high on Andujar. Bellucci is a f-ing flake, but he has the game to play on this surface if his head is on straight. Worse shots to take though. Good luck bro.

[JNic]

Yea I agree with you but Kamke was much better last year and while he has been shit this year he showed flashes of his form in Washington and won 2 matches and just never misses but is able to take the backhand early on serves and return with pace, I think he has game to beat Hewitt regardless if he doesn't show up which is another big possibility regarding his age. Bellucci needs to be continued to be faded, all last year no matter what he can do on clay it simply hasn't translated onto hard courts, I usually overlook him but Andujar deserves way more respect and even got by Tipsarevic in masters although he retired because of illness

[garbin]

Dude, don't bet against Belluci, he is not the same player he used to be, guy is evolving, did you see the final when he was 6-1 up 1st set tie break against Tipsarevic, he lost the tie break some how and then won the next 2 sets, showing he matured a lot, he plays amazing tennis when his head is good and he has been working with a psychologits and it seems to be working really well, I think he will make to the 3rd round based on what he delivered, I think he plays a decent tennis on hard courts and Andujar don't have the game to beat him.

[BrianLaverty]

The only way Kamke beats Hewitt in a slam is if he all of a sudden plays offensive... and I think we all know the chances of that happening through the years of watching Kamke be a mediocre player.