Decided to just start a thread per week to document my ridiculousness. Smell the money burning. Futures unfortunately have not posted anywhere that I see, so will have to offer some insight on those later when I see some prices.
ATP Rogers Cup
Top Seeds
1. Djokovic: A bit concerned about burn out for Djokovic. I think mentally the strain of trying to live up to last season's dream run has caught him to an extent. He's still competing at a high level every week, but he's also beatable & on this surface, there will be plenty who can entertain knocking him off. His draw is not the easiest with some tricky guys like Nishikori, Simon and Del Potro. He's the defending champ and probably could use the confidence of winning a big tournament like this - physical fatigue might not be as high as others since he only played Wimbledon & the Olympics, but the mental aspect is what I think you have to keep in mind here with the recent losses to Murray & Del Potro.
Prediction: Semifinals
2. Murray: For me, Murray is going to be the most fascinating player of the draw. Wining the Gold Medal is going to propel him one of two ways IMO. Either it pushes him to another level where he carries through with an awesome Summer going into the US Open or he potentially falls flat with an Olympic sized hangover. His draw is troublesome with big servers in Raonic and Isner waiting perhaps. The potential third rounder with Raonic should tell you Murray's mindset. If he gets through that, then he could be poised for a run.
Prediction: Finals
3. Tsonga: Tsonga can probably stroll into the quarters without breaking much of a sweat. Tsonga is someone who can win this tournament depending on how the chips fall. He played well @ this event in 2011, knocking off Federer before retiring in the semis to Djokovic. The weather looks like it won't be overly hot which should also benefit Tsonga who sometimes has struggled with the heat.
Prediction: Finals
4. Berdych: Berdych has gone from hot commodity/Grand Slam threat to absolute mess, flaming out in the 1st round of Wimbledon and the Olympics. Not sure if it's just been bad luck or a lack of determination. It's hard to think he's going to catch fire after his last two losses and a pretty gross grass court swing, but he's in a very open part of the draw. His quarter has Monaco as the next highest seed and then Fish and Gasquet as others to watch. Fish looked like he was still not quite fit from his Atlanta tumble, while Gasquet could have some potential to upset him.
Prediction: Semifinals
5. Tipsarevic: I think Tipsarevic is one to watch this week. He's been pretty solid for most of the season on all surfaces and switches to hard courts that should suit his power game. He has to have it all going early though as he faces Anderson or Youzhny first-up and then potentially Cilic or Baghdatis just to earn a QF birth. This is a tough quarter with Tsonga on top.
Prediction: Quarterfinals with upset potential to make the semis
6. Del Potro: Del Potro surprised me by winning the Bronze against Djokovic. It was a well earned medal for the way he played Federer the round prior and was able to come back and finish things. Of course now the question is what does he have left in the tank after a long week + travel? To me, Delpo is an absolute boom or bust guy this week. He could get a red hot Dolgpolov first-up coming off the DC title or Stepanek if Dolgo flakes out. That could end his week early if it's Dolgopolov. Del Potro has handled him three times in their careers, including twice this season - but if you're fatigued, playing a quirky guy like Dolgo isn't going to help your concentration. It's going to frustrate you. If he does come through though, he could take the quarter with Djokovic up top. Simon and Haas float in his quarter as well, but his skill trumps all of them if he's fit and focused. I'm not sure either of those will be the case.
Prediction: 3rd round - potential to lose in the 2nd round
7. Monaco: His rise in the rankings has been predicated mainly on his clay court prowess, so now he has to prove worthy on the different surface. He gets the benefit of a weak draw, but that doesn't mean Seppi or Pospisil can't knock him off right away. Monaco is tricky though. He doesn't often play a lot on hard courts, but about once per season he springs a deep run. He may have used that up in Miami this year.
Prediction: 3rd round
8. Isner: The Big Tie Break has a very workable draw to the quarters. He may see Kohlschreiber on the way, but that's a winnable match on this surface. I see Isner having a good shot to be in position to make the semis. He would likely have to get through Murray or Raonic. The one troubling thing for Isner is that he rarely has fared well in these bigger 500-level summer events. He's been able to dominate in places like Atlanta and Winston-Salem last year, but has normally come up short in Canada and Cincinnati. It's a good year to change that with a draw that affords him that possibility.
Prediction: Quarterfinals with upset potential to the semis
1st Round/2nd Round Upset Watch
[1st] Berrer over Tomic
[2nd] Pospisil-Seppi over Monaco
[2nd] Dolgopolov over Del Potro
[2nd] Querrey over Nishikori
ATP Rogers Cup
Top Seeds
1. Djokovic: A bit concerned about burn out for Djokovic. I think mentally the strain of trying to live up to last season's dream run has caught him to an extent. He's still competing at a high level every week, but he's also beatable & on this surface, there will be plenty who can entertain knocking him off. His draw is not the easiest with some tricky guys like Nishikori, Simon and Del Potro. He's the defending champ and probably could use the confidence of winning a big tournament like this - physical fatigue might not be as high as others since he only played Wimbledon & the Olympics, but the mental aspect is what I think you have to keep in mind here with the recent losses to Murray & Del Potro.
Prediction: Semifinals
2. Murray: For me, Murray is going to be the most fascinating player of the draw. Wining the Gold Medal is going to propel him one of two ways IMO. Either it pushes him to another level where he carries through with an awesome Summer going into the US Open or he potentially falls flat with an Olympic sized hangover. His draw is troublesome with big servers in Raonic and Isner waiting perhaps. The potential third rounder with Raonic should tell you Murray's mindset. If he gets through that, then he could be poised for a run.
Prediction: Finals
3. Tsonga: Tsonga can probably stroll into the quarters without breaking much of a sweat. Tsonga is someone who can win this tournament depending on how the chips fall. He played well @ this event in 2011, knocking off Federer before retiring in the semis to Djokovic. The weather looks like it won't be overly hot which should also benefit Tsonga who sometimes has struggled with the heat.
Prediction: Finals
4. Berdych: Berdych has gone from hot commodity/Grand Slam threat to absolute mess, flaming out in the 1st round of Wimbledon and the Olympics. Not sure if it's just been bad luck or a lack of determination. It's hard to think he's going to catch fire after his last two losses and a pretty gross grass court swing, but he's in a very open part of the draw. His quarter has Monaco as the next highest seed and then Fish and Gasquet as others to watch. Fish looked like he was still not quite fit from his Atlanta tumble, while Gasquet could have some potential to upset him.
Prediction: Semifinals
5. Tipsarevic: I think Tipsarevic is one to watch this week. He's been pretty solid for most of the season on all surfaces and switches to hard courts that should suit his power game. He has to have it all going early though as he faces Anderson or Youzhny first-up and then potentially Cilic or Baghdatis just to earn a QF birth. This is a tough quarter with Tsonga on top.
Prediction: Quarterfinals with upset potential to make the semis
6. Del Potro: Del Potro surprised me by winning the Bronze against Djokovic. It was a well earned medal for the way he played Federer the round prior and was able to come back and finish things. Of course now the question is what does he have left in the tank after a long week + travel? To me, Delpo is an absolute boom or bust guy this week. He could get a red hot Dolgpolov first-up coming off the DC title or Stepanek if Dolgo flakes out. That could end his week early if it's Dolgopolov. Del Potro has handled him three times in their careers, including twice this season - but if you're fatigued, playing a quirky guy like Dolgo isn't going to help your concentration. It's going to frustrate you. If he does come through though, he could take the quarter with Djokovic up top. Simon and Haas float in his quarter as well, but his skill trumps all of them if he's fit and focused. I'm not sure either of those will be the case.
Prediction: 3rd round - potential to lose in the 2nd round
7. Monaco: His rise in the rankings has been predicated mainly on his clay court prowess, so now he has to prove worthy on the different surface. He gets the benefit of a weak draw, but that doesn't mean Seppi or Pospisil can't knock him off right away. Monaco is tricky though. He doesn't often play a lot on hard courts, but about once per season he springs a deep run. He may have used that up in Miami this year.
Prediction: 3rd round
8. Isner: The Big Tie Break has a very workable draw to the quarters. He may see Kohlschreiber on the way, but that's a winnable match on this surface. I see Isner having a good shot to be in position to make the semis. He would likely have to get through Murray or Raonic. The one troubling thing for Isner is that he rarely has fared well in these bigger 500-level summer events. He's been able to dominate in places like Atlanta and Winston-Salem last year, but has normally come up short in Canada and Cincinnati. It's a good year to change that with a draw that affords him that possibility.
Prediction: Quarterfinals with upset potential to the semis
1st Round/2nd Round Upset Watch
[1st] Berrer over Tomic
[2nd] Pospisil-Seppi over Monaco
[2nd] Dolgopolov over Del Potro
[2nd] Querrey over Nishikori
