EP36's Weekly Wankoff: Rogers Cup

**nicsbr** · 08-08-12, 01:45 PM

tsonga ***** many today :O

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-08-12, 01:56 PM

Usual from Tsonga. Lazy play and he doesn't rescue himself in a tie break. That's not just something from this week as far as I am concerned. Same thing in London. I did expect him to make it through though so pretty disappointing. I think this is precisely why books had not hung any futures though, too many question marks.

**riffraff24** · 08-08-12, 02:03 PM

Glad i laid off that big parlay... I went much smaller on it and included Del Porno. Fukked me early.

**Sawyer** · 08-08-12, 02:41 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Wednesday, August 8th
Berdych-Benneteau Over 21.5 [-110]
Simon -125
Querrey -130

Nice call on Over, Thanks!

**alta** · 08-08-12, 02:44 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

I think Tipsarevic could go far this week. I was however considering an over in that one, but laid off - I do think Youzhny can push him if he serves well before Tipsarevic gets comfortable. Had though about Nishikori early, but he's a gross majority pick @ TI and the fatigue concerns I had for Querrey did not show in his opener. Nishi is still a tough cookie, but Sam is in excellent form right now. Probably going to play him as he was someone I had picked to win against this particular match-up.

If you want start times, google the Rogers Cup schedule of play. You can get the 1st court times and then estimate the matches after that. 5D lists all times Eastern.

flashscore.com updates the start times all day long. For instance the Haas/Simon match has now been pushed back to 4:15 ET. Just make sure you adjust the Current Time Zone to your own(top left side)

**Allen24** · 08-08-12, 04:13 PM

Querrey line is moving up should we be worried

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-08-12, 04:46 PM

What are you worrying about? It is -135 right now. Hasn't moved much from the price this morning by that number.

**riffraff24** · 08-08-12, 04:50 PM

I really hate Haas. Everytime I play him he chokes. Everytime I fade him he's an Ace machine. wtf

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-08-12, 05:01 PM

I like Haas. Simon is a bitch. Expected bhim to frustrate Haas some, but not even close.

**ParlayininHTown** · 08-08-12, 06:18 PM

EP, am I crazy to think Murray will win this thing right after his run at the Olympics? If not him, it seems like such a crap shoot ... Djokovic seems distracted by other matters. Tipsy can be beat by a lot of lower-ranked players if he's not on on a given day. Berdych's first serve in percentage has been a joke for most of this season, which will surely cost him another match at some point. Del Po and Tsonga are already done.

Who else but Murray?

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-08-12, 06:42 PM

I had him in the finals. I also thought Tsonga might try this week, but uh deeerrp on that. Waiting tonight to see if maybe we get some actual futures since the big boys have played.

I think if Murray gets by Raonic, no reason not to be in the final because he'll face similar players en route (Isner). Other side is fairly open depending on which Djokovic shows up. I actually think Tipsarevic has a great shot with Tsonga out of his quarter.

**mdfizzle** · 08-08-12, 08:55 PM

Tomorrow is tough to call.

**zoo youk** · 08-08-12, 08:56 PM

lines are out. Tip is -130

**mdfizzle** · 08-08-12, 09:20 PM

Sort of surprised he is the favorite. Tips was not in good form today and couldn't close out the first and second sets on his own serve. I lean Cilic.

**ParlayininHTown** · 08-08-12, 09:51 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

I had him in the finals. I also thought Tsonga might try this week, but uh deeerrp on that. Waiting tonight to see if maybe we get some actual futures since the big boys have played.

I think if Murray gets by Raonic, no reason not to be in the final because he'll face similar players en route (Isner). Other side is fairly open depending on which Djokovic shows up. I actually think Tipsarevic has a great shot with Tsonga out of his quarter.

There's certainly a path for Tipsy, but he needs to play well every match. Tomorrow will be quite a challenge for him. He's 1-6 against Cilic, and both guys have been in good form of late. I'm excited to see how that one plays out, despite not having money riding on the match. Tipsy can't have one of those performances like the one he had against Phau in Germany, or I'm afraid it'll be curtains.

Murray is hovering around -180 to -220 against Raonic. That's a scary number. Books will get a lot of action on Murray, although they could simply be showing respect to a guy who destroyed Murray on clay earlier this season. I don't think I'll be backing Murray tomorrow, but I agree that Raonic seems to be Murray's greatest hurdle before the finals.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-08-12, 10:37 PM

Raonic is 7/8 tips on TI .. kiss of death at this point. I don't put a ton of stock into the Barcelona tournament when trying to figure out anything. That blue clay was such bullshit. I'm actually still very surprised by the lack of success Raonic has had on outdoor hard courts. He should be chewing people up on these courts with his serve. Seems everyone is on him due to the perceived home court advantage in Toronto. Definitely not going to touch that one in any way, shape or form ... but I think if Murray serves well, then he's going to challenge Raonic to be perfect to win.

I agree the Tipsarevic-Cilic match should be the best of the day. I'm probably looking mostly at totals for tomorrow. Sides are tougher this round to me.

**zoo youk** · 08-08-12, 11:45 PM

EP....gun to your head, you expect Tipsarevic to come out on top?

**MagicDiceFlow** · 08-09-12, 12:15 AM

The match tomorrow will all boil down to how Cilic serves. Cilic didnt serve well at all against Baghdatis and with Tipsy being a great returner, that could be the deciding factor. Cilic's serve can catch fire at any moment. Tipsy has difficulty reading Cilic's serve hence the 1-6 record. If Cilic serves just average, I think Tipsaveric takes this one. If he serves like what he's capable of, it will be a tight three setter with Cilic on top.

On a personal note, I would like Tipsaveric to win because I like his game and he's a cool cat. However, I do respect Cilic's game. Will be a great match to watch tomorrow.

**khalid** · 08-09-12, 01:15 AM

Novak is probably happy to be on hard courts again and he did beat Murray on hard courts in Miami this year at his last hard court tourney.Roger is a good tens star and very famous in all over the tens history.I like tens player this game is precious all the other games.

**ChrisJ** · 08-09-12, 02:22 AM

Today could have a lot of overs hitting. As you said EP it will be tough to pick sides today and feel confident. Should be some great matches

GL

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-09-12, 05:38 AM

Originally posted by zoo youk

EP....gun to your head, you expect Tipsarevic to come out on top?

Yes. Obviously some will look @ the head to head and be scared away. I think most of the past matches don't apply outside of last year's because Tipsarevic is a different player since 2011. Cilic won indoors late in the season when Tipsarevic was on the back end of two straight weeks playing with two title matches in a row. Tipsy won in Miami early in 2011.

Both have points to defend although Tipsarevic has more since he made the semis. Again really a coin flip in my mind so I don't really suggest playing a side. You can find better edges in Toronto today.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-09-12, 07:30 AM

Thursday, August 9th
Tipsarevic-Cilic Over 23 (-115)
Granollers -135
Gasquet-Berdych Over 22.5 (-115)

**shimeon40** · 08-09-12, 07:37 AM

i'm just selecting granollers from the menu...oh frig..i'll put a little on parlay to

**Hangoverblack** · 08-09-12, 10:15 AM

Some late steam on Cilic. Let's see if he can do it. -120 close.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-09-12, 10:28 AM

Off & on showers today in Toronto.

Now I really hope Tipsarevic gets it. Show all the line movement conspirators what's what.

**MagicDiceFlow** · 08-09-12, 10:46 AM

I'm going with Tipsaveric. I can see the wet weather coming into play today. Balls will be heavier and Cilic's serve not as dominant.

Perhaps the books played a head fake for all the steam chasers on Cilic .....good luck though.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-09-12, 11:00 AM

Just a note for any Raonic backers - it's now 29-9 in his favor for TI tips .... pretty damn ridiculous.

**Hangoverblack** · 08-09-12, 11:11 AM

The only line movement I consider is movement that takes the lower ranked player and drags them from underdog to favorite. It leaves us with odds that would be "free lunch" on Tipsy as a higher ranked underdog.

There are no free lunches in gambling, of course.

**MagicDiceFlow** · 08-09-12, 11:26 AM

Originally posted by Hangoverblack

The only line movement I consider is movement that takes the lower ranked player and drags them from underdog to favorite. It leaves us with odds that would be "free lunch" on Tipsy as a higher ranked underdog.

There are no free lunches in gambling, of course.

Oddsmakers normally dont use rankings to devise a line. For the most part they use recent head to head matchups and the surface record. This is the reason why you'll see lower ranked players favored(happens quite often). When I cap a match, rankings is last to my list of factors.

Chase the steam all you want but be careful because if this match does start today, the rainy weather will throw a wrench into the steam and be an edge for Tipsaveric.

**GoBlue77** · 08-09-12, 11:48 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Just a note for any Raonic backers - it's now 29-9 in his favor for TI tips .... pretty damn ridiculous.

Im sorry TI? So what does that mean

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-09-12, 12:56 PM

TennisInsight, another capping site. They notoriously fail on a high percentage when their tips heavily favor the underdog. Currently about 75% of their 41 tips are on Raonic.

**BrianLaverty** · 08-09-12, 02:08 PM

Andy Murray withdrew...

**ParlayininHTown** · 08-09-12, 04:49 PM

The doors have been blown wide open for Djokovic and Tipsy ... Djoker could really use a tournament title for his mindset.

As EP said, no wonder they didn't put out futures for this tourney.

**GoBlue77** · 08-09-12, 11:18 PM

tipsy now @ +115

not sure what im doing with this one

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-10-12, 08:51 AM

More rain today. Doesn't look too good from the forecast. On the plus side, maybe get your funds back from yesterday if your book has a 24 hour start time rule.