Jack Sock v. Steve Johnson

[terpkeg]

Sock +125
Johnson -145

Yet, earlier today.

Sock +12500
Johnson +20000
to win Atlanta.

Doesnt make sense. Took Sock +125 and burned some money on Johnson to win tourney.

What do you think?

Sock more experienced on the pro tour, no?

[BrianLaverty]

Think the line should be flipped around also... Sock wins.

[Snowball]

maybe Vegas knows something we don't know yet.
no way to explain the line with stats.

[EaglesPhan36]

Sock is a superior player IMO. Interesting thing is they are playing doubles together this week. Only thing I can think is books are setting this based on Johnson beating Sock last year on an indoor hard surface ... but it still makes little sense. I'd take Sock 10 out of 10 times with this line.

[dangerfish]

Think the line should be flipped around also... Sock wins.

And that would be based on what exactly?

[tevari]

Surprised at the odds. Thought it would be a PK.

[BrianLaverty]

And that would be based on what exactly?

Having watched both of them play many times in person, I'd say Sock is the much better player. Like EP said, they are obviously overvaluing the result from the indoor hard courts in October... Since Sock got hurt a few months ago, he's came back with a whole new attitude and was training in Vegas with Agassi every day for a month straight. The last 2 weeks are the best I've seen Sock play, and really don't think he will lose this match. The line is scaring me out of a play though.... it doesn't make much sense.

[terpkeg]

Still not much movement here

-140/+120

[QuangX]

it moved to thursday, I think

[SportGTI]

it moved to thursday, I think

I noticed that the match was moved to Thursday; any reason they moved the match to tomorrow.

[EaglesPhan36]

I think it was always scheduled for Thursday. Books just put it up and may have had the wrong date.

[ProfitBettingSov]

Are we taking Jack Sock or no?

[EaglesPhan36]

I think we have to be honest here. Sock is the bigger name. Johnson though is not exactly a slouch. He took Bogomolov to 5 sets @ the US Open last year when Bogo was rated as a pretty solid player, not the mug that Sock just beat. I think the obvious minuses are his lack of ATP or Challenger-level matches. Remember, this guy was still playing college tennis @ USC until late May. He also had a ridiculous 72 match win streak in college over the past two seasons, winning the NCAA singles title both years. He's certainly got talent, but as we talked about - being the firm favorite here doesn't seem right ... we think.

I think the line is begging for action on Sock. Those often don't work out well. Better play could be the over @ 22.5. Obviously that leads you to believe it is a likely 3 setter and that could very well be the case between doubles partners who likely have learned a bit about each other's games this week in practice. Tough call really if you want a side. Have to say though this smells of a TI burial. 18-2 on tips there on Sock.

[ohumad]

I think we have to be honest here. Sock is the bigger name. Johnson though is not exactly a slouch. He took Bogomolov to 5 sets @ the US Open last year when Bogo was rated as a pretty solid player, not the mug that Sock just beat. I think the obvious minuses are his lack of ATP or Challenger-level matches. Remember, this guy was still playing college tennis @ USC until late May. He also had a ridiculous 72 match win streak in college over the past two seasons, winning the NCAA singles title both years. He's certainly got talent, but as we talked about - being the firm favorite here doesn't seem right ... we think.

I think the line is begging for action on Sock. Those often don't work out well. Better play could be the over @ 22.5. Obviously that leads you to believe it is a likely 3 setter and that could very well be the case between doubles partners who likely have learned a bit about each other's games this week in practice. Tough call really if you want a side. Have to say though this smells of a TI burial. 18-2 on tips there on Sock.

Shows you just how good the pro level players are let alone the top 3.

[ProfitBettingSov]

Very nice analysis, EP and highly appreciated! The line also seems to be moving in Johnson's favor. Let's see what happens.

And sorry for the measly 2 pts. Those are the max I can transfer. More of a gesture than anything.

[Zacharrr]

Johnson.

[Handiman]

Dont think about it go with Sock. The line is like that because he has never won on that surface not only that he lost to Johnson last year. He is a much better player than last year Sock will win.

[alta]

Since they are doubles partners, perhaps they have an arrangement as to who will win, and their big cash out will be just like we here try to cash out.

[shimeon40]

[Snowball]

standard play on Sock posted days ago +120
line is down to +110 now.
i agree the line is strange but am still willing to put a standard unit on
Sock

[terpkeg]

Down to -125/105 on 5d.

Yet tourney odds still flipped

Sock 100/1, Johnson 150/1

[shimeon40]

eagles sure of sock..tevari sure of johnson

[Demonata]

I really like Sock to win here. He is clearly the better player and clay is a lot different to play on than hard court.Steve struggled against Donald young who's never won in like forever.

[EaglesPhan36]

eagles sure of sock..tevari sure of johnson

I am not promoting a side really. I said I would take Sock given the odds, but the only thing I might try is the over. The line and the whole world is on one guy theory is enough to keep me off this one. Sometimes the whole world is right, but seems rare when consensus dogs cash.

[shimeon40]

yeah..it's a hard one..alot of difference of opinions..maybe a no bet..too close..doubles partners etc etc..there would be some friendly arrangement we are not privy to

[Demonata]

Might as well take the value in Sock. It is a coin flip match. Take Sock or the over. I feel it ends in two sets though.

[samus82]

Don't know what I am missing here for the line to be like this, but I will be making a play on Sock.

[EaglesPhan36]

Man this could be one of the greatest mass burials in history .... I'd venture to say 98% of every poster/tout what have you that I have seen with any opinion on this one is on Sock.

[ParlayininHTown]

Man this could be one of the greatest mass burials in history .... I'd venture to say 98% of every poster/tout what have you that I have seen with any opinion on this one is on Sock.

Just seeing the TI numbers and the posts on here makes me want to drop half a G on Johnson ML. But if he lost, I'd have to serve 20 papers (about a week's worth of work for my lazy ass) or risk a four-figure burial in one day to make up the loss.

Decisions, decisions, decisions ...

[terpkeg]

I am not a regular tennis bettor and I don't really handicap the sport.

Is there typically late line movement on ATP matches with less publicity? Or, do you get more initial moves, followed by stabilization?

[tevari]

I am not a regular tennis bettor and I don't really handicap the sport.

Is there typically late line movement on ATP matches with less publicity? Or, do you get more initial moves, followed by stabilization?

#1.

Don't know why anyone would bet on this match. It's like betting on two division 3 NCAA football teams battling it out. Shit vs shit, anything can happen.

[ParlayininHTown]

Tevari's post was blunt, but he has a point.

Looking at the match schedule for Atlanta, I can't bet this match anyway. Unlike Brock Landers, I don't want to have action while I'm at work. lol.

[tevari]

so true about BL.

i think i'm 0-3 on my last 3 plays but i'll be playing muller to take a set off fish at even money. won't even be watching this train wreck.

[HOT WINGS]

Took the Over 22.5 in this match GL all

[imzdeals]

also on the over