Reasons why Ferrer cannot win against Murray?

[MagicDiceFlow]

WTF!

Are you surprised or saying I'm wrong? If it's the latter, with these wins at Wimbledon, grass has become Ferrer's best surface percentage wise. Ferrer's career win percentage on clay 70.2%. Ferrer's career grass win percentage as of today , 72%.

[Balco10]

I think he just made his mind up and is dropping a dime on Murray!

[gregm]

Thanks Magic, I definitely think that total is the best wager but I thought it was the best wager for the Del Potro match and Juan couldnt win a set. I think the speed of the surface will be huge, but Ferrer mentally is miles above Murray, mental strength is not just a big factor in the WTA, not to mention physical conditioning. Murray is a basket case when he falls behind at times, how many injuries can a guy suffer?

Baskets, Who is the "Big 4" that you are talking about? I definitely agree with you, Ferrer will never be in the same class as Nadal, Fed, or Djokovic, but who is? The only one I can think of in the top tier of players that Ferrer has a losing record against is Soderling. He has dominated Berdych, has a winning record against Del Potro and Tsonga, and is even with Murray. Look at all these guys number against the big 3.

All I am saying is at this point there should only be a "Big 3" and Ferrer has been more profitable to wager on with the number oddsmakers give him than anyone in these top tier of players.He is small and oddsmakers dont give him credit but look at his numbers, they are incredible. He is like Jimmy Connors, a total fighter but small and doesnt possess a big serve which is so important in the modern game. Maybe Murray will create a big 4 but he hasnt so far.

I would take Ferrer any day over Del Potro, Tsonga, or Berdych and even Murray as well but lets see if Murray can finally win one this year. This is the perfect scenario for Murray.

[Balco10]

Murray huge...

[gregm]

I wouldnt be huge on anything at this point in the tourney, I like the over in that Murray/Ferrer match and Ferrer +1.5 sets but who knows. Williams maybe huge to win Wimbledon after the way Aza, Radwanska and Kerber looked today but at these later stages its hard to find much value in anything. Azarenkas serve was really poor I thought today. Williams is going to eat her alive on that second serve.

[Zacharrr]

think if Ferrer goes into +210 territory he is worth a small play.

[EaglesPhan36]

Balco that bet on Ferrer was @ 5Dimes. They offer them every Slam under their futures section. One of my favorite bets to look at .. players to win their quarter instead of winning the whole thing.

The one thing I don't get in this argument is the hammering of how "everyone" struggles against the Big 4. Murray is by far the least dominant of those four. You can find several players with a decent record against him. This isn't the gap you see with Ferrer v. Rafa, Fed or Djokovic. He plays Murray tough and i expect an entertaining match that can go either way. Over 3.5 sets if you have the option seems less worrysome than anything else.

[OlavHedm]

Balco that bet on Ferrer was @ 5Dimes. They offer them every Slam under their futures section. One of my favorite bets to look at .. players to win their quarter instead of winning the whole thing.

The one thing I don't get in this argument is the hammering of how "everyone" struggles against the Big 4. Murray is by far the least dominant of those four. You can find several players with a decent record against him. This isn't the gap you see with Ferrer v. Rafa, Fed or Djokovic. He plays Murray tough and i expect an entertaining match that can go either way. Over 3.5 sets if you have the option seems less worrysome than anything else.

I think Ferrer win against Murray

[shari91]

I put a bit on Ferrer. Just like with the Del Po match at least I know he'll fight to help me win my bet. No complaining, no 'injuries' that miraculously heal 2 games later, no pressure from a crowd of Brits... he'll simply play.

[MagicDiceFlow]

I added Ferrer to this parlay. Very nice value on the payout if Ferrer ends up upsetting the heavy public money again, which I believe is possible. Good Luck everyone.

Ticket #	Accepted	Type	Risk	To Win	Short Description
	7/4/2012 5:04AM	Parlay	150.00	1,153.87	Other Sports - 4253 D. Ferrer +170 for Game Other Sports - 24251 R. Federer (Games)/M. Youzhny (Games) over 32½ -122 for Game Other Sports - 24255 J. Tsonga (Games)/P. Kohlschreiber (Games) over 40 -130 for Game

[qsilver335]

I like Murray at -220 myself. Good luck everyone!

[TennisProFrance]

On his day Murray is the better player by some distance, however Ferrer is more consistent. Looking at their recent meetings:

2012-06-06	French Open	David Ferrer	Clay	3:1 » 6:4, 6:7(3), 6:3, 6:2
2011-11-21	World Tour Finals London 2011	David Ferrer	Hard	2:0 » 6:4, 7:5
2011-10-16	Shanghai 2011	Andy Murray	Hard	2:0 » 7:5, 6:4
2011-10-08	Tokyo 2011	Andy Murray	Hard	2:0 » 6:2, 6:3

For the last 6 weeks Murray has been struggling to find top gear, for whatever reason.

1. Paris - No surprise given the above and it was on clay that Ferrer won

2. London - Murray was injured, don't consider this as a standard game

3. Shanghai - Murray was coming down from his peak but still plenty in reserve to deal with Ferrer.

4. Tokyo - Murray was on the top of his game and destroyed Ferrer, like he did Nadal shortly afterwards.

This game all comes down to Murrays racket, is he going to find his A game or will his B game slip below the consistencey of Ferrer.

I hope Murray losses, he's a prick with his moaning and faking injuries, even the UK public are starting to dislike his behaviour. But on his day hes as good as anyone, problem is he only seems to find top gear towards the end of a season.

[JNic]

Are you surprised or saying I'm wrong? If it's the latter, with these wins at Wimbledon, grass has become Ferrer's best surface percentage wise. Ferrer's career win percentage on clay 70.2%. Ferrer's career grass win percentage as of today , 72%.

I'm saying why the hell is this even relevant lol... we all know Ferrer's worst surface is grass, a small sample size doesn't help your case...

[good2go2mexico]

Worst surface is relative. He's top 5 in the world on clay. Of course compared to that grass is his "worse" surface. 32-12 ain't half bad though, think we can all agree on that. I played the over so no real dog in this race, might do some live betting depending on the circumstances. I think this has all the makings of a 5 setter.

[EaglesPhan36]

Set #1 ... DAVEEEEEEEED! Vamos.

[MagicDiceFlow]

I'm saying why the hell is this even relevant lol... we all know Ferrer's worst surface is grass, a small sample size doesn't help your case...

32-12 record is a small sample size and not relevant????

[shari91]

Set #1 ... DAVEEEEEEEED! Vamos.

Love it. Always get my money's worth with Ferrer even when he loses.

[JNic]

32-12 record is a small sample size and not relevant????

I'm saying you keep saying statistically it's his best surface... You must be not thinking straight if you actually think hardcourt/clay ferrer is worse than grass ferrer. I must have just read you wrong earlier because it sounded like you said grass is his best surface...

Also if you want to go back and actually look at who he played on grass, tell me his notable wins forreal. If he beats Murray here, it would be BY FAR his best grass win to date. Winning the dutch tourney right before wimbledon twice doesn't mean that much when he is beating bums.

His only real impressive wins are against JMDP and Gonzo in 06 it looks like, he's beaten Delpo twice btw on grass. Fernando Gonzalez also isn't that good on grass sorta from what I remember.

I'm not trying to troll you btw but saying his record over and over is getting old, actually look at who he's beaten and you will be FAR from impressed.

I argued with good2go2mexico earlier about how Istomin is real good on grass, What I'm trying to say is for Istomin's level his grass skill far exceeds the rest of his game (not including indoor hard). Like Ferrer's grass skill compared to himself overall is miniscule but still stronger than Istomin if you get what I'm saying

[MagicDiceFlow]

I tossed a single bet on Ferrer. With all given circumstances, this was a 50/50 match at best. Even Murray happens to comeback and win this, I'm fine with it. I'll take a coinflip against the bookies at +170 my side......all day long.

Wager Type : Money Line
Wager Status : PendingRisk / To Win Amount : 850.00 / 1,445.00(USD)
Accepted : 7/4/2012 6:49AM - PST


Sport / Period : Tennis Other Sports / Game
Selection : D. Ferrer
Time : 7/4/2012 7:30:01AM - (PST)
Line : +170
Game Notes : MATCH WAGERING - A full set must be completed for money line wagers to have action.
The spread is based on sets and the full match must be completed for action

[MagicDiceFlow]

I'm saying you keep saying statistically it's his best surface... You must be not thinking straight if you actually think hardcourt/clay ferrer is worse than grass ferrer. I must have just read you wrong earlier because it sounded like you said grass is his best surface...

Also if you want to go back and actually look at who he played on grass, tell me his notable wins forreal. If he beats Murray here, it would be BY FAR his best grass win to date. Winning the dutch tourney right before wimbledon twice doesn't mean that much when he is beating bums.

His only real impressive wins are against JMDP and Gonzo in 06 it looks like, he's beaten Delpo twice btw on grass. Fernando Gonzalez also isn't that good on grass sorta from what I remember.

I'm not trying to troll you btw but saying his record over and over is getting old, actually look at who he's beaten and you will be FAR from impressed.

I argued with good2go2mexico earlier about how Istomin is real good on grass, What I'm trying to say is for Istomin's level his grass skill far exceeds the rest of his game (not including indoor hard). Like Ferrer's grass skill compared to himself overall is miniscule but still stronger than Istomin if you get what I'm saying

That's why I specifically stated the word "statistically". Statistically better has always been and always will mean percentage points better, this goes for records in ALL sports across the board if you follow. Now how you interpret that is up to you. But the stone cold fact is his grass record is indeed better win percentage wise.

[PickApprentice]

Andy take this if he is more aggressive in play. It is actually a very simple strategy!

[EaglesPhan36]

lol at people thinking Ferr has a shot.
.

Yeah, he looks terrible with a set in his pocket and on-serve in the 2nd.

[EaglesPhan36]

One hold to serve out the 2nd set. Vamos Daveeeeeeeeeeeed!

[JNic]

That's why I specifically stated the word "statistically".

Oh word, I read it wrong then.
But you know what I'm saying, Ferrer is just improving overall as a player

[ChrisJ]

This could screw up the over. Dang...

[EaglesPhan36]

Ferrer is going to rue this set if he loses it. Should have had a double break lead and then gets broken trying to serve it out. Doh!

[shari91]

Need him to keep cool during the tiebreak.

[mdfizzle]

That is just too bad.. Murray is likely to take the next one with ease.

[EaglesPhan36]

I think that is going to be a turning point. He should have buried him 2-0 .... Nap time. Hoping to be surprised when I get up and see Ferrer in the semis, but not expecting my +1000 to hit after it was there to take.

[JNic]

^ Lol bad time for a nap, this set is so crucial

[MUHerd37]

Can't believe Ferrer just fukked himself. Should be up 2-0.

[good2go2mexico]

Yep that's probably the turning point right there. Should hit the over now easily enough.

[TC Woods]

Thoughts on Kohlschreiber, does he come back down 2-1?

[good2go2mexico]

Thoughts on Kohlschreiber, does he come back down 2-1?

No. Tsonga is going to take this now.

Also just live bet Murray at -155. Ferrer had his chance. Momentum all with Murray now.

[baskets]

valiant effort

but u knew he was going to lose in the end