Come on now. He's like a +220 dog, with Ferrer @-260. I honestly thought it'd be something more along the lines of -500/+340. I'm contemplating throwing down a grand to make a 4 spot on Ferrer. Sure, he's not that comfortable on grass, but we've seen Roddick's results in the last couple of years when he plays players that make him work for literally every point. He usually packs it in by the second set. Prime example: against Nadal at the US Open last year. I remember this forum flooded in with people taking Roddick on the money at like +1200, and the handicap. IIRC, he got crushed like 6-1, 6-2, 6-2. I know there's no value in taking Ferrer on the ML but I will definitely be using him for parlay fodder.
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You're not kidding. Roddick beat a couple cupcakes out there and all of a sudden he's getting respect from Vegas.Comment -
Andy Roddick beat Ferrer last year in a grand slam. I even bet Roddick and made good profit. I probably will take him again against Ferrer.Comment -
I like Ferrer. Roddick didn't drop a set in his 1st 2 matches but didn't really look that great either. It's gonna be tough to beat perhaps the most fit man on tour while your trying to come back again. I like Ferrer.Comment -
Yep but I would prefer a win in a grand slam over an opponent. People doubted Roddick last year and I was one of the few to take him and made me good money. No reason Ferrer should destroy him. Match will be close and Roddick has a great chance to win. Especially if his serve is on.Comment -
You can thank Roddick's run in Eastbourne last week against some average competition + Joe Public and the perceived lack of success for Ferrer on grass for the price.
I think the US Open win for Roddick last year was the result of him being highly motivated after Ferrer embarrassed him in his adopted home town on a surface that should have massively been in favor of Roddick's serve in that Davis Cup match. Ferrer also has never really done much @ the US Open. Think he got good practice for A-Rodd with De Schepper who has a big serve and last week, dismantling Petzschner who was absolutely unbreakable on-serve before the title match.
I wouldn't advise going big on any play at this stage of the tournament with the way things have gone to this point. Roddick has the game where if he does the grip it and rip it routine and is serving HUGE, he has a chance.Comment -
I think the line is about where it should be. Ferrer isn't dominant enough to be more than about -350 against a guy who seems to be rounding into form on his best surface.
Like EP pointed out, the "grip it and rip it" style is working wonders for underdogs in this tournament. However, I believe Ferrer wins in 4 sets.
All I'm saying is not to count Roddick out that easily. He is going to be just as motivated as Ferrer.Comment -
The line on Roddick +2.5 sets is -270. With that, you're basically betting any other outcome than Ferrer winning in straight sets.
If Roddick loses 1-3 or 2-3, or wins by any score, the bet wins. The only way it loses is if Ferrer wins 3-0. That seems like a safe bet to me.
They've played 10 times and Ferrer has only beat Roddick in straight sets 3-0 one time, and it was on clay. On grass, how does Roddick not get at least one set?
Edit: Now down to only -255. I just took it after it dropped.Comment -
Ferrer beat him in straights 3-0 on an indoor hard court in Davis Cup last year not clay. I think people are putting a lot of stock in Roddick here and I think you have to be real careful. Roddick hasn't beaten anyone worth a shit in this little run of his the last week plus. To me that Davis Cup match sticks out that Ferrer can handle Roddick on a slick/quick surface. I think all Roddick bets are still somewhat risky. His 1st serve has to be A+ or Ferrer will pick his 2nd serve apart. I'm just going to enjoy the show personally.Comment -
So you think there is a greater than 28% chance that Ferrer beats Roddick 3-0?
I wouldn't bet Roddick straight even though he's +200. In fact, I actually bet Ferrer at -233. But the likely hood of Roddick winning just 1 single set seems a fair amount better than 72%.
There will probably be at least one tie break here, and Ferrer might take a set off at some point to rest. Then there's Roddick's style on grass and the fact that it's Ferrer's weakest surface (although he's still good on it). There are just so many ways for Roddick to win at least just 1 set.
Ultimately, I see Ferrer winning 3-1, but I wouldn't be shocked if it goes 5. I would be pretty surprised if it only went 3, though. Bets on Ferrer straight at -233 and Roddick +2.5 at -255 are my plays.Comment -
I just won't be surprised with any result tomorrow. Roddick could bring a total buggy whip, you can't touch me serve and win outright or he could have trouble getting his serve in and Ferrer feasts on his 2nd in which case I would not be shocked to see Ferrer win in straights. Let's not forget that Ferrer basically has had two practice matches with Brown & De Schepper who both can wallop the ball in his 1st two rounds, rounds in which he won in 3 both times. Roddick may have more experience than those two, but that doesn't mean the outcome won't be the same. I just think if Roddick struggles early there is a real chance Ferrer could win in straights because we all know Andy is just one bad set away from blowing up and becoming negative.
I think it's an intriguing match, but I really don't think Roddick is quite in the form that people are trying to make him out to be in so again to me it makes it pretty tough to figure out exactly how tomorrow will pan out.Comment -
Brown was able to take him to a very close tie breaker in the first set, which Ferrer barely won at 7-5. Then the last 2 sets, Dustin won 4 gams in each. Brown has a good serve but is weak every where else, so if he can do that, I think it's very likely Roddick picks up a set. Especially considering, like I said, the potential for tie breaks and Ferrer taking a set off.
That said, Roddick could totally flake out and tank. I just see him winning 1 set as the far more likely outcome.Comment -
Something really worth considering tomorrow are the conditions. Watch to see if the rain ends before this match starts. Forecast looks like it should, but it could also mean that Roddick-Ferrer are playing a match after the roof is re-opened from the match before. Going to be windy as hell again tomorrow.Comment -
Roddick up a very easy 2-0 in games to start. This is huge and great for my bet that just needs Roddick to win 1 set.
I'm loving my spot right now
EDIT: Now an easy 3-0, breaking Ferrer's serve twice. Roddick winning set is basically a lock now. He's gonna have to bomb badly for this bet to lose (which is always possible with him).Comment -
3-0 cmon, of course I'm on ferrer, this tennis is fckd up sport to bet onComment -
You better start loving David Ferrer to start figuring out how to win a point or you're going to lose money on those two bets if Ferrer doesn't turn things around. He looks terrible so far.Comment -
Go Roddick. So afr like I predicted. People saying Roddick does not have a chance is crazy.
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Roddick looking solid as **** right now. Can he keep it up?Comment -
Andy gonna take the first set likely
i will grab some Andy LiveComment -
you gots to be kiddin me Andy -182
only up 5-2
Ferrer is the play
hit it +159
crap i wasn't fast enough
blessing in disguise ?
watch analyzeComment -
And there it is, Roddick wins the first set. My Roddick +2.5 bet is a winner now I knew that was a near lock! Now I gotta root for Ferrer to cash my much smaller bet on him, so I can make even more profit. Profit either way for me, though.
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Roddick will win this. He plays way better in grand slam tournaments and has looked great this tournament with his serve. Keep it up Roddick. I bet him but did not have time too post it in my thread.Comment -
Totally good bet you made man. Was easy money.Comment -
Luca if your book does Live you could have gotten Ferrer @ +159Comment -
I saw that, but didn't take it. Roddick is playing fantastic right now. At this rate, I favor Roddick to edge it out. This second set will tell us a lot. If Ferrer can win it, he can probably grind this one out. I just can't get a good enough read on the match at this point, and since I already have a small bet on Ferrer going into this, I don't want to pile more on him (yet).Comment -
Ferrer is settling in now, broke Roddick. Now we've got ourselves a match.Comment -
Yep. I'm in an awesome spot! Roddick +2.5 sets already won, now Ferrer has found his rhythm. Looks like both bets will win, but we could be in for 5 sets, like I thought was very possible pre-match.
I think Roddick is mostly packing it in this set. Ferrer will probably win it 6-3, IMO. I expect Roddick to turn it up next set, though. Might bet Ferrer if/when Roddick goes up 2 sets to 1 so I can get him at a much better price than he is now.Comment -
cant trust ferrer todayComment -
Wow, so much for Roddick packing it in this set - I take that back. He's turning it back on now. 3-3Comment -
Let's go Roddick. Breaks back. Roddick playing great and running to the net. Tennis players like me and Dmoney appreciate his play right now.
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