LF Tennis Predictions (2012)

**loufunk** · 06-26-12, 08:35 AM

Picks = 23
Won = 17
Lost = 5
Void = 0
Pending = 1 (Soeda - Kuntsyn)
Winning % = +77.27%
Staked = 220 u
Won = 317.40 u
Profit = +97.40 u
ROI: +44.27%

**loufunk** · 06-26-12, 08:40 AM

Originally posted by benandjerry

Nice calls on the early matches. I know what you're basing your rating numbers on, as you've explained earlier in the thread. I was wondering if you dont have any concern regarding the the small spread between your rating numbers in relation to the low odds in some matches (one of them being this soeda match) for example? I obviously have little understanding of what to exactly make out of your rating numbers other than the larger difference the better. Have you been using this system for a long time successfully?

Forgive me for all the questions, and I'm by no means trying to sound negative, I'm just trying to get a better understanding for it all. Thanks for your efforts Lou, and of course I put a little on Soeda! Nice early break too.

It's not a problem answering to you, if you ask this way

I developped this rating alone, I have a little basis of stat and so on, because I have a website that makes horse's predictions, so I usually use excel to do these things.

Sometimes odds does not reflect exaclty what I have as rating, but I am trying to modify my little program in order to recognize when there is some value in the odd.
The fact is also that I use BF and I can go in the odd also live, and catch what I think is the better odd, and also make some lay, like trading.

The only problem with you, is that you profile picture is about Red Wings grrrrrrrrrr

**loufunk** · 06-26-12, 08:43 AM

Originally posted by loufunk

Only because I'm italian, I know how Francesca loves battles, how she fights on every point, and I feel she would give her soul to make a good start in this tournament

exactly how it was, a close match.. with Francesca winners at the end

**benandjerry** · 06-26-12, 09:24 AM

Originally posted by loufunk

It's not a problem answering to you, if you ask this way

I developped this rating alone, I have a little basis of stat and so on, because I have a website that makes horse's predictions , so I usually use excel to do these things.

Sometimes odds does not reflect exaclty what I have as rating, but I am trying to modify my little program in order to recognize when there is some value in the odd.
The fact is also that I use BF and I can go in the odd also live, and catch what I think is the better odd, and also make some lay, like trading.

The only problem with you, is that you profile picture is about Red Wings grrrrrrrrrr

Thanks for the reply. Thats interesting, so you've had much long term success with horse betting? I know absolutely nothing about horses so I may have to check that out!

You have to admit though, Wings fan or not

, Lidstrom was a pure class act, classiest hockey player ever?

I was actually rooting for the nucks last years cup final, Lou (not you obv! Luongo) blew a tyre though and Sedin's disappeared (shame that they are somewhat soft given the ton of skill they got, kind of like Forsberg lite clones). I hear even a lot of nucks fans are annoyed with Luongo, whats your standpoint on the whole Luongo vs Schneider debacle?

**MakeItRain14** · 06-26-12, 09:53 AM

I can't believe I missed the first 3, but thanks for everything. Always checking your thread for winners!!

**TheBeastMode** · 06-26-12, 09:58 AM

Nice first round start. Do you have a calculated system for other sports as well?

**colout** · 06-26-12, 10:17 AM

Do you have other plays today?

**silvap** · 06-26-12, 10:22 AM

Another winner, Soeda wins easily, cheers!

**loufunk** · 06-26-12, 10:30 AM

Thank you all

My last two picks of the day, hope to carry on winning

Odesnik - Phau
Pick: Odesnik
Odd: 1.55 (BF)
Stake: 10 u

My Rating
Odesnik 73.35
Phau 64.75

Govorstova - Beck
Pick: Beck
Odd: 1.74 (BF)
Stake: 10 u

My Rating
Govortsova 76.12
Beck 131.27

GL

**MakeItRain14** · 06-26-12, 10:34 AM

On it!!!

**WSU_Tbone** · 06-26-12, 01:07 PM

Lou...very impressive. Thanks for sharing.

**hougigo** · 06-26-12, 01:10 PM

Impressive indeed. Odensik is looking last I checked.

**loufunk** · 06-26-12, 01:18 PM

Originally posted by TheBeastMode

Nice first round start. Do you have a calculated system for other sports as well?

Yes I do.
I have one for horse racing, but only italians races till now.
I am developping one for NHL but in that case I like finding the value on my own

even if as said I will make one.

For soccer, I could have one, but I prefer looking at the BF graphics.. I am building a db with about 5k matches, with intial odds, final odds, and other things I look.
In reality, I could share with you one system I developped, like Colombo's egg

but works.
Only a +20% on each match, but works.. not a matematical one (does not exist if you don't consider sure bets), but a really close one.

**PickApprentice** · 06-26-12, 01:38 PM

lou, how do you build your model? If I want to start with a simply model, what do I need? Is there any books or websites that you can suggest?

Thanks

**ridims** · 06-26-12, 01:52 PM

when does the Beck match start?

**hougigo** · 06-26-12, 01:53 PM

Man, Odensik is making me sweat.

**alta** · 06-26-12, 01:57 PM

Originally posted by ridims

when does the Beck match start?

it was originally scheduled to follow the Odesnik match.
but has been re-scheduled for tomorrow.

**adila1401** · 06-26-12, 02:16 PM

Originally posted by alta

it was originally scheduled to follow the Odesnik match.
but has been re-scheduled for tomorrow.

i was wondering why it wasn't showing up, was about to ask someone for score haha..thx

**PMcG012** · 06-26-12, 02:56 PM

Odesnik better come back with a vengeance when play resumes. This should have been over already.

**hougigo** · 06-26-12, 02:58 PM

I know man.
Any Idea what time it resumes tomorrow?

**loufunk** · 06-26-12, 04:14 PM

Originally posted by hougigo

I know man.
Any Idea what time it resumes tomorrow?

13.30 here in Italy, that is GMT+2

**loufunk** · 06-26-12, 04:18 PM

Originally posted by PickApprentice

lou, how do you build your model? If I want to start with a simply model, what do I need? Is there any books or websites that you can suggest?

Thanks

the best bookmaker I can suggest is for sure betfair.
Because you can find best odds, because you can trade the odds making back & lay, because matches are and remain always open.

I built my model with patience

trying to figure out what kind of info where important to me to know, to build a rating about two players.
I decide to keep track of wins, surface, player's shape, skills. I combined all in a (small secret) function in order to obtain the rating I publish.

**TheBeastMode** · 06-26-12, 09:16 PM

Govorstova - Beck
Pick: Beck

I took Beck fairly large @ -150 in the afternoon. Match got postponed and now she it's @ -125...I'm already sweating

**hougigo** · 06-26-12, 09:22 PM

Freaking match just had to get postponed....I had it at -150 too

**adila1401** · 06-26-12, 10:39 PM

haha same here with Beck.. I think she should be able to pull this out..GL to everyone

PS: If you follow every one of loufrank's tennis picks for a set amount of units, u will end up with green more often than not...hes money, so no worries gentlemen ..only prosperous times ahead

glgl

**good2go2mexico** · 06-27-12, 12:09 AM

Originally posted by PMcG012

Odesnik better come back with a vengeance when play resumes.

He ll yeah he does. I need this to hit bad first thing tomorrow morning.

**loufunk** · 06-27-12, 01:19 AM

Originally posted by TheBeastMode

Govorstova - Beck
Pick: Beck

I took Beck fairly large @ -150 in the afternoon. Match got postponed and now she it's @ -125...I'm already sweating

it's summer time, we all sweat

we have to try to stay positive, I always remember that it's not over until is over... so

nhl match, rangers @ predators, if I remember well.. a very close game.. rangers scored when it was -0.01 seconds left...

**msetai** · 06-27-12, 01:27 AM

Hey LF, how long before matches do you normally post your picks/analysis?

**loufunk** · 06-27-12, 03:26 AM

Originally posted by msetai

Hey LF, how long before matches do you normally post your picks/analysis?

if I do not have problems with work, also 30-60 minutes before.
Sometimes happens that I'm busy and I try to do my best.

For 12.30 GMT+2, I am now having a look at Monaco, Stephens and Cibulova's matches

I will let you know later, I have also to consider that I still have two pending picks, Beck (not yet started) and Odesnik, that needs to wake up

**MakeItRain14** · 06-27-12, 03:35 AM

Ok thanks, I'm waiting all night for your pics, 4;35 am over here in Miami

**jbart28** · 06-27-12, 03:40 AM

Originally posted by MakeItRain14

Ok thanks, I'm waiting all night for your pics, 4;35 am over here in Miami

Me too, south florida as well. Waiting for the LF GOLD!

Lou, give us a nice parlay if you can

**benandjerry** · 06-27-12, 03:50 AM

Originally posted by loufunk

if I do not have problems with work, also 30-60 minutes before.
Sometimes happens that I'm busy and I try to do my best.

For 12.30 GMT+2, I am now having a look at Monaco, Stephens and Cibulova's matches

I will let you know later, I have also to consider that I still have two pending picks, Beck (not yet started) and Odesnik, that needs to wake up

I hope you are on Monaco and Stephens and not their opponents as I'm on them already.

Good luck today!

**loufunk** · 06-27-12, 04:54 AM

Originally posted by benandjerry

I hope you are on Monaco and Stephens and not their opponents as I'm on them already.

Good luck today!

hey mate, I think I will go on +2.5 Chardy and Ceskova

You all are so lucky to live in Florida, in Miami.. I live in small town in the centre of Italy.. uff...

**loufunk** · 06-27-12, 04:59 AM

Originally posted by jbart28

Me too, south florida as well. Waiting for the LF GOLD!

Lou, give us a nice parlay if you can

I bet on betfair and I usually don't do parlays, because I love trading odds when they play

If you want you can make a sum of the picks I post

**msetai** · 06-27-12, 05:02 AM

LF, are your official picks in bold? Or when you said Chardy and Ceskova, does that count as your picks? Thanks for the help!