Tilting after going 3-0 my last few tennis plays, considering Ferrer tomorrow

[JohnnyRudeboy]

Thanks to NBA, and NOT playing a small baseball system I've developed which has gone 8-2-1 over the last 2 weeks. I can parlay Tennis at one book, but not at the other. I have no insight to contribute. I draw what small information and knowledge I can predominantly from message forums like this one-- sad/stupid(?).

As mentioned, I am tilting hard and considering laying the wood on David Ferrer tomorrow, who is singlehandedly responsible both for making me win and lose more money than any other player in Tennis (faded him last week vs. Fed). The head to head looks nice, as it is 3-1, with all 3 of Ferrer's wins on clay. I also had Ferrer when he pulled his shoulder in practice just before a match against some hump roughly one month ago.

I'd be lying if I said the odds were the worst I've ever played. Does that make it smart? A resounding no.

And yes, I really do sort of need to make some units to avoid paying the man this week. Again.

Match input please!

[JohnnyRudeboy]

To make matters worse, I am going on a one-week cruise on Saturday with the GF and her family where I will have little access to the internet and an oh-so unfortunate access to 24 hr buffets, craps, and poker tables.

[JohnnyRudeboy]

I sort of also like that Simon struggled a bit today while Ferrer made short work of Verdasco and had a day of rest. I think. He could have spent it sipping wine and courting floozies for all I know.

[EaglesPhan36]

Ferrer should win, but man these are the sort of plays that can get you into more trouble.

[ParlayininHTown]

Ferrer should roll, so don't sweat it. If you can't handle the pressure and consequences of laying a lot of chalk, don't do it. But I think Ferrer is a solid bet.

The one wild card is that it's getting close to French Open time, and you never know when a guy has a sore ankle or elbow or whatever and will lay back and not take a lot of physical risks during a match ... Sometimes it's just a mental lapse, as they don't really care too much about their performance in a smaller tournament when a grand slam is right around the corner.

Whatever you decide upon, good luck to you.

[JohnnyRudeboy]

Thanks to both of you for the input. In case you were wondering, I just lost Laker ML on that travesty of a final 120 seconds of play when they were up 7.

[DR225]

I was also a victim of that choke job and like you, I'm looking to chase. I don't think you should bet him straight up though, either bet the spread or parlay him, the French Open starts on Monday and that's primarily what every player is thinking about. If you want to lay the juice, do it on Monday, not in this meaningless tourney right before a slam. I'm also like you in terms of not knowing much though, although I'd like to think I've gained a bit of insight after spending time in the tennis forum for the last year or so lol. bol

[iMxth3xbossx5000]

I really like Ferrer here to. One thing about him is he always comes ready to play. He got that mentality to win, unlike some players who just don't give it their best because it's a small tourny. Very tempted to take Tomas Berdych as well. He's clearly the superior player to Almagro but would have thought the line would be a lil higher

[iMxth3xbossx5000]

Lol I feel either Andy Murray or Tomas Berdych will lose but not both of them. Just a gut feeling. One wins, one loses.

[innn]

Berdych superior to Almagro?
we shall see

[Pride]

I sort of also like that Simon struggled a bit today while Ferrer made short work of Verdasco and had a day of rest. I think. He could have spent it sipping wine and courting floozies for all I know.

HUGE understatement. GGL is a challenger level player and should have crushed simon in the third set.

I was looking to fade simon today as well.

[JohnnyRudeboy]

Thanks for the input guys. I wound up just foregoing this match altowgether as the line i gotas higher than expected, -600., and instead played Flavia pennenta for a relative song on what I thought was an equally strong play. Special thanks to EP as I got the idea from his parlay.

[JohnnyRudeboy]

4-0 tennis and -6 units on the week thanks to the NBA and baseball. Doomed to failure it seems. Like Lebron.

[JohnnyRudeboy]

Well, -3.3 units on the week after cashing the under and SA spurs to all casually observing my tale of woe. not terrible, but considering I was +3 units on Monday night, a lousy feeling. The board looks awfully thin tomorrow at a casual glance-- should probably stick to the title of this thread and consider laying the wood on Ferrer, which is as much a fade of Gascan as it is a play on him, but -550 is not a nice price. Quite surprised to see Joker at the same price, -550, irregardless of the recent struggles. Looks like a bunch of crap till the next round. Maybe some beaver betting but nothing jumps out.

[ParlayininHTown]

4-0 tennis and -6 units on the week thanks to the NBA and baseball. Doomed to failure it seems. Like Lebron.

I've been there before. You just have to be more disciplined about where you place your money.

What works for me is going big on tennis, college basketball and college football (SELECTIVELY) and going small on soccer, NBA, MLB, NFL, etc.

Make most of your money in the sports you can cap well, then use a small slice of your profit as an entertainment fund that you use for smaller bets on the sports where you lose money. Don't ever expect to do anything but lose that entertainment money, although there will be times when you actually make a little money off these bets. Just think of it as play money you use to quench your thirst for action.

I don't know what works for you, but this has worked well for me. Just do whatever suits you best.

[JohnnyRudeboy]

Appreciate it. And to be honest, I was doing quite well in the NBA until the Knicks got eliminated and Charlotte's season ended-- I guess I took for granted what easy fades they were.

Thing is, in the regular season I never would have made the bet on the Heat I did tonight, I would have hammered Indy all day with the world against them at home on a short line on national TV, but for some reason I got swept up in the whole "Heat won't drop 2 in a row to these bums" deal. Stupid. Less games to choose from just makes it tougher. I generally do well in football, but the last year is without a doubt the worst I've had in the last 10. Keep waiting for it to turn around. Missed 2 overs in baseball today by a half-point (eff you Miami Marlins and LA Angels for your batting ineptitude). Just not catching the breaks and making some bad reads. Pure funk, like taking my shoes off on a hot day.