Davis Cup: 9.19.08

[EaglesPhan36]

Simply a couple value plays here for whatever it's worth. These I believe all go off early in the morning.

Roddick +230 vs. Ferrer
First things first, this match is in Spain & it is on clay. But looking past that, how the F could you warrant tossing almost -300 on David Ferrer with his form this season? Roddick has played well at Davis Cup events in his career & has won 9 straight Davis Cup matches. Roddick is also coming in after playing his best tennis of 2008 at the US Open. The worry would obviously be his lack of clay court seasoning in '08. He hasn't played on the surface since making the semis in Rome back in May. Ferrer lost in the 2nd round to Stepanek there. Even if Ferrer wakes up today and decides he wants to win this for his country, I can't see not taking a shot at Roddick with this price.

Del Potro -140 vs. Davydenko
Quite honestly, I question Davydenko's form right now after a piss poor US Open. Davy also isn't prone to really giving a damn about Davis Cup play. He is 12-7 in Davis Cup matches, but in recent weeks since winning a clay courter in June - he's lost in the 1st round at Wimbledon, a disappointing 4th round exit at the US Open & a couple of forgetful early round exits at US hard court events. Del Potro meanwhile has taken the tennis world by storm this summer. The 20-yr old won four tourneys (2 on clay) & made the quarters at the US Open. Playing in front of the home crowd should be a boost for any nervousness he might have in just his 4th Davis Cup match. Unless Davydenko is betting on himself to win, Del Potro should get this done.

[rumple]

i played both these sides as well, gl

[single shaker]

like your del potro pick, but would be hesitant to go with Roddick on clay, however, Sam Q won 1 set off Nadal, so courts might be playing faster than usual. g/l to you guys. cant wait for tournaments to start again next week, kind of empty this week with only women playing, and davis cup that i usually stay away from.

eagles what is your pick on phili vs pitt game, my dad wants to go with phili -3, i see it as a stay away game?

another thing that concerns me with bryan brothers not playing, roddick might feel that this rubber is lost anyway.

[EaglesPhan36]

One thing I read about the Spanish courts is that Nadal for one had complained that the high altitude in Madrid was wreaking havoc on the direction of the balls, so the unpredictability could help. Basically, I think if Roddick were to beat a Ferrer on his favorite surface - this is the time because of the transition back off hard court + who knows how the surface is playing. Even though Querrey lost, he pushed Rafa today.

Eh, I don't bet Eagles games for fear of having to root for the other team, etc. on points. I'd lean to Philly though since Big Ben still has the bum shoulder.

[single shaker]

One thing I read about the Spanish courts is that Nadal for one had complained that the high altitude in Madrid was wreaking havoc on the direction of the balls, so the unpredictability could help. Basically, I think if Roddick were to beat a Ferrer on his favorite surface - this is the time because of the transition back off hard court + who knows how the surface is playing. Even though Querrey lost, he pushed Rafa today.

Eh, I don't bet Eagles games for fear of having to root for the other team, etc. on points. I'd lean to Philly though since Big Ben still has the bum shoulder.

all righty than i am laying half a unit on roddick!

[EaglesPhan36]

Tell you what. If A-Rod can find a way to win this 1st set, he has to feel good. His 1st serve sucks from the #s I see, yet he's still up 5-4. Bad 1st serve is what killed him at the US Open vs. Djokovic.

[EaglesPhan36]

All even at one set. Roddick crushed Ferrer 6-2 in the 2nd after losing 1st set tie break.

[EaglesPhan36]

A-Rod up 2 sets to 1, but down a break in the 4th.

[EaglesPhan36]

Looks like Andy is gonna blow it in 5. Now down a break, 2-1.

[EaglesPhan36]

Tied 6-6 in the 5th. Man what a match. Even if Roddick falters here, value surely was all with him. Hopefully he can figure out a way to win.

[EaglesPhan36]

Well Roddick gave it a ride, but lost in 5. Del Potro pounded Davydenko in straight sets.

[single shaker]

Well Roddick gave it a ride, but lost in 5. Del Potro pounded Davydenko in straight sets.

thanks eagles, i bet one unit on delpotro this morning and after reading your post went ahead and put 2.5 more units on him for total of 3.5 so it covered roddick's loss. if you in dc area the lunch in on me!

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah Roddick could have made it a great morning/afternoon, but I'll settle for good!

[SBR Lou]

I was actually conversing with a friend who wagered Ferrer and saying I thought A-Rod was the better side in terms of value, but I didn't realize this match was on clay. That changes everything but Ferrer still had his woeful serve and nearly lost.

[EaglesPhan36]

Clay didn't change anything for me. Ferrer has been a piece of trash most of this year. Even in front of his home crowd on a surface he wipes up on, he nearly lost. Betting -290 or so on Ferrer at this point is one of the worst bets you could make against a top 10 foe. Your friend won today, but I think it'd be 50-50 almost every time right now with his form.