Predicted Chance T/I

EaglesPhan36 · 01-29-12, 12:15 AM

>> Predicted Chance and Minimum Buy-In Based on the Ratings and Handles for each player, a combined statistic is calculated that gives an estimate of the chance of either player to win the match. This is shown as a range (a confidence interval) – the better Handle we have on each player, the smaller the range. The minimum buy-in is simply the reciprocal of the Models minimum estimated chance for each player and represents the lowest price at which you would bet if you went purely off the Model Rating.

I don't know what that translates to in English.

benrama · 01-29-12, 12:35 AM

I'm on that site and I think nearly all their own calculated probabilities and ratings are complete BS.

shari91 · 01-29-12, 01:00 AM

Tsonga, I honestly don't pay attention to that number because I've found OnCourt to be more spot on over time. FWIW, they break it down as Djoko 54.1, Nadal 45.9 on a hard court. But again they don't take into account the speed of the court, etc... just the general surface.

They're supposed to be used to do this:

Current Pinny lines: -149/+140.

zero vig for Djoko = 59.8% probability of winning. zero vig for Nadal = 41.66%

59.8+ 41.66 = 101.46%

Proper probability taking into account the vig - Djoko: 59.8/101.46 = 58.9

Nadal: 41.66/101.46 = 41.01%

Since OnCourt gives Nadal a 45.9% chance winning, you should take the Nadal line. IF you believe in the validity of OnCourt's number.

But again, that's why I ignore TI's... giving a wide range like that is basically useless as far as applying it in a meaningful way to your bets. And I also don't put much stock in OnCourt's either but at least it gives you a precise number to play around with.