Just wanted to see who's every1 here backing for this epic matchup
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42Djokovic-1500%20Nadal+1400%22The poll is expired.
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Have djokovic on the futures so just evened the stakes on nasal, win-winComment -
the best bet seems to be to go against who most people on sbr thinks will win.
- the other night, everyone was on Murray to beat joker.
- yesterday, everyone was on Sharapova.
- before that, everyone was on Clijsters to beat Azarenka.
early on here with 17 hours to go before the match, more people seem to be on Nadal going by what people are saying in various threads.
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I like Djoker here. He sees this win and will take this. Stupid sharapova screwed me though.Comment -
Not a bad strategy long term - SBR consensus is pretty much a 100% fade.Originally posted by PR9the best bet seems to be to go against who most people on sbr thinks will win.
- the other night, everyone was on Murray to beat joker.
- yesterday, everyone was on Sharapova.
- before that, everyone was on Clijsters to beat Azarenka.
early on here with 17 hours to go before the match, more people seem to be on Nadal going by what people are saying in various threads.
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Also have futures on both, win more if Nadal wins and that is the end result in my opinion. A lot of people are going to back Djokovic solely based on his domination of Nadal in 2011 without taking into consideration what has transpired this tournament. Djokovic has shown vulnerability with breathing issues [allergies] but has shown a champion's resolve in working to the pay window still. This however is a spot where he'll find someone with the best resolve in the business, the best fight, the biggest heart. If Djokovic plays the way he has in his last 12 sets or so which has been uneven at times with plenty of chances for his opponents to seize control, I think Rafa will.
I know a lot of people think the match is bigger for Nadal from a mental perspective and it is huge, but it's also big for Djokovic. #1 definitely does not want to concede that he's not on his A game at the first Slam.
One LARGE thing to take into consideration is how they treat Rod Laver Arena today. Temperatures during the day are going to be scorching with match time temp still in the high 80s. Fitness will be a major issue IMO here and that edge is 100% to Nadal at this stage. Storms forecast for overnight, so unless they roll in early - the roof should be open and the elements in-play.Comment -
then again Nadal seems to be more outgoing right before a big match than usual. He's posting stuff on his social media channels with pics from a restaurant last night, and posting youtube videos from his hotel room (which looks pretty fukking extravagant and more like a plush condo btw). I know he's always confident but seems a little extra so here. But at the same time he seems very relaxed and not uptight (like he can be at times before a big match). It's a relaxed form of confidence. He certainly doesn't look worried.
Not to look too deeply into this, but he wasn't doing these things last year.
I think he feels it and can taste it. In that he can taste winning this match against Joker, and feeling this is his time after joker totally owned him last year. maybe nadal knows he has improved from last year, coupled with seeing some vulnerability in jokers game this yr. In other words, the gap closingComment -
McEnroe said he thinks Joker will win in 4 setsComment -
And here are some (so-called) expert picks and write-ups from tennistalk.com
Australian Open final expert picks: Djokovic vs. Nadal
2012-01-28 15:11:02
Expert picks are back for yet another Grand Slam final between the top two players in the world, Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal. The Tennistalk panel has weighed in along with a few guest experts as they predict who will triumph at the Australian Open. Join the fun and make your own picks in the comments section!
(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (2) Rafael Nadal
Ricky "Nostradamus" Dimon: I had this final from the start with Djokovic winning in four, but now we seem destined for a five-setter. Nadal has erased questions about his knee and his Doha loss to Gael Monfils by playing stellar tennis throughout his trip to the title match. The Spaniard has dropped sets in only two of his matches (against Tomas Berdych and Roger Federer) and in each of those he stormed back to win in four. Djokovic is playing well, but he is not quite as on fire as when he beat Nadal on clay or at Wimbledon or at the U.S. Open. The world No. 1 is also coming off a four-hour and 50-minute thriller against Andy Murray with one fewer day of rest than his opponent. That should not end up being a determining factor in the final result, but it will at least help Nadal's confidence. The relatively slow surface will help the underdog turn this into a grinding war of attrition. I feel like Nadal will channel his inner Robin Soderling and announce to the world that "nobody beats Rafael Nadal seven times in a row." Nadal 7-6(4), 3-6, 6-4, 6-7(6), 6-3.
Cheryl "Still Without a Slam" Murray: It looks like we're destined to have Nole and Rafa in every final these days. This is VERY good news for Djokovic and very bad news for Nadal. I don't think the actual tennis matchup is a problem for Rafa, except that Nole has that fantastic return and Rafa's serving can be weak. Otherwise, I think this is more a mental thing. Rafa's confidence is rattled when it comes to playing Djokovic, and it's hard to imagine that this fact has changed since the off-season. The one upside for Nadal is that he's playing better now than he was at the U.S. Open, and Djokovic is perhaps a shade less so. The Serb was having breathing trouble this week and he looked pretty awful in the second set against Murray. But this is Rafa, against whom Djokovic is supremely confident. Djokovic 6-3, 4-6, 7-6(5), 6-2.
atul "all I do is pick winners" 1985: This is the third consecutive slam final between the two, something not even the legendary Fed-Nadal Rivalry has managed to provide to the tennis world. Djokovic is the usual dominant player that he was in 2011, albeit with some vulnerabilities. Nadal, on the other hand, is playing his best tennis in over a year. There is some visible difference in his game and that spark in his eyes that was missing in 2011. Given what transpired in 2009, all talk of Djokovic being exhausted for the final does not hold true. Expect a fully fit Djokovic to take on a fully fit Nadal with Rafa avenging his 2011 losses and claiming his 11th Grand Slam title. Nadal 6-4, 7-5, 2-6, 7-6(5).
chlorostoma: If this final was taking place 12 months ago I would favor Rafa for a hard-fought win. Since then, however, Novak's game has solidified into one that is hard for anyone to break down on most days and of course Rafa has the challenge of overcoming the six straight losses against Novak in 2011. Novak has not been as convincing as we expected him to be this tournament, but he plays like someone who has won under all different circumstances last year; he knows that no matter how the match is going he will almost certainly prevail; the very experience Murray and Rafa are lacking against Novak these days. I expect a rousing speech from Toni and Rafa refusing to repeat the way he was defeated by Novak last year, Novak for the win in five. Djokovic 7-6, 3-6, 6-3, 4-6, 7-5.
natashao: I will never forget that hot night in June 2011 when I dreamed about Rafa losing his Wimbledon finals to Nole and it was when Rafa was just about to play his first-round match.... Six months later, on a cold winter night, I dream about Rafa again...this time he bites the AO trophy. People say you dream about your wishes or you dream about your worst fears; like Martin Luther King I decide to trust my dreams.Rafa is playing his A-game again. His mental strength is gradually coming back, his first-serve percentage is high, and his shots are landing deeper than in 2011, although he still mixes it up with short ones to affect the rhythm of his opponents. Nole’s level, on the other hand, is a bit lower than it was in 2011. He has been way too much broken in this AO by his standards. He failed to serve out the match in the fifth set in the semis and had to get it the harder way. This is expected to go in Nole’s favor, but not this time. Nadal 6-4, 3-6, 7-6, 6-7, 6-4.Comment -
Thanks guy for all ur opinions and write-ups this match is tighter then i thought with the line at -150 Joker its a toughy good value on Nadal+140 for a 55/45 match i would say seeing that all u guys have it here on the poll...Comment -
Here is a similar poll on a tennis forum..
Nole in 3: 45, 15.46%
Nole in 4: 125, 42.96%
Nole in 5: 19, 6.53%
Nadal in 3: 21, 7.22%
Nadal in 4: 55, 18.90%
Nadal in 5: 26, 8.93%Comment -
I don't see that the majority on SBR are on Nadal. I'm on him for a bit but I was also on Djoko to beat Murray, Clijsters to beat Aza and Nadal to beat Fed. I even had a little bet on Sharapova last night. On TennisInsight, which has many more tennis contributors - not like here where the majority of the guys who have a sudden interest in tennis will disappear from the Tennis Forum tomorrow again - the majority is on Djoko. Don't worry about what others are betting... just go with who you like to win.
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ARTICLE:
"Nadal changes game for Djokovic – but is it enough?"
Novak Djokovic has dominated Rafael Nadal in recent times, but the Spanish great has tweaked his game in a clear strategy to get the better of his Serbian rival.
Another Grand Slam final, another Djokovic-Nadal clash - last year this duo did battle in six important finals with the Serb winning all of them, but can the Spaniard snap his losing streak?
In this blog I will look at how important this match is to Nadal, the elements of his game that Djokovic has been exploiting, and how Rafa has worked on these aspects at the Australian Open with this final in mind.
Last-chance saloon for Rafa?
The Majorcan is not used to failure. But he has lost six big finals in a row to Nole, who last season was pretty much unstoppable.
This final is of tremendous importance for Nadal. His path is constantly troubled by Nole and it's frustrating for him. I'm convinced that if this pattern continues Rafa could lose what has made him so strong throughout his career: his unwavering belief, desire, determination and passion.
Given how much effort he has put into getting past the final hurdle, these repeated blows could well traumatise Nadal. This problem needs to be solved quickly, so Nadal can prove to himself that he can stay the master of the game.
Why has Nadal failed?
There are several reasons why Rafael is struggling against Novak. Here are the main ones:
Nadal's serve, especially his second serve, lacks depth and power; Djokovic, meanwhile, boasts the best returning stats on second serve. Throughout 2011, Nole won the most points on his opponents' second serve. Against Rafa, he's "having fun" when he takes these chances, and always starts these points as the offensive player.
The Spaniard, when challenged like this, plays short and gets punished.
Nadal's general depth of shots is also to blame for his losses against Djokovic. While most players don't take advantage when Nadal shortens his shots, the Serb is outstanding in the way he steps inside the court to take the ball early - taking time off Nadal who, when attacked, plays even shorter.
When Rafa is the attacking one, he doesn't generate enough power to hurt Nole. The Serb is one of the best retrievers in the world and can to go from defence to offence on any ball that doesn't have enough power. This happens a lot in their battles.
What is at stake in this final?
The Serb certainly has the mental edge. Six finals played against the Majorcan, six victories. The numbers tell it all. Furthermore, Nole nearly saw himself lose against Andy Murray, like in the last US Open semi-final against Federer. Rather than fatiguing him, Nole will now feel even more invincible.
Rafa broke down mentally for the first time in his life in a Masters 1000 final against the Serb. He acknowledged it. But I feel he has bounced back since January and regained his legendary fighting spirit. He's ready, now more than ever.
Physically, both players have huge qualities. They both spent a lot of time on court in their semi-final. Even when Nadal has had an extra day off, Novak has previously shown himself to be fresher in their fights.
I have to give a little advantage to the Serb because of this. But Rafa has searched for solutions in two areas that have been troubling his game.
What has Nadal changed with Djokovic in mind?
Nadal has kept 70% of his first serves in play throughout this Australian Open - this shows he is dealing with his aforementioned second-serve problem by seeking to minimise the need to use it; previously he was at 57% of first serves in during his matches against Novak, a stat the Serb exploited ruthlessly last season. By reducing the need to use his second serve Nadal is protecting himself from Nole's attacks on it: Rafa has been preparing for this match against Djokovic. The only issue is that Rafa's best serve - the slice he often uses on deuce and advantage - plays directly to Nole's best shot: his backhand.
Regarding his shot efficiency, Nadal has added some weight on his racquet in order to change his swing weight (from 308 to 314): this means he can get more power and more length on his shots, reducing the shortening and power problem I talked about. He wants to make the Serb move backwards and to be more decisive on attacking balls so he can't turn defence into offence so easily.
Finally, game-plan wise, Rafa has to stop avoiding the diagonal with his backhand on to Nole's forehand. Indeed, it's when he changes to the diagonal shot that he gets punished by the Serbian. He has to make Novak go backwards, forcing him to use his forehand to dictate the game. Will he do it? I'm not sure as he has not had to so far, but I think so.
Personally, I'm convinced Djokovic will play a great match, like he always does against Nadal.
But this time Rafa has a new plan, one he has executed throughout this tournament, and I think he is readier than ever.Comment -
I've looked over all the scenarios. After careful consideration my pick is........
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Interesting perspective from someone on a tennis forum:
I'll say it again : this tournament is a sign of God for Nadal :
- against Fed, he had the only cool day of the tournament (21 celsius to start) hence slow conditions.
- today, he will have a very hot day (32 celsius to start), and everyone knows that Djokovic dislikes the heat ... and all the more with all of his breathing problems recently and long match against Murray.
I don't know why Nadal deserves that from God.
It's hot and humid as fukking hell in Melbourne now
is this a possible ??
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Good info PR9, I don't know how anyone can have watched Djokovic's last 3 games and not be concerned that he is going to have serious fitness issues, which Rafa is the best person in the world to exploit. There'll be no mopey body language from Rafa, no let-up, no giving away a 4th set, and he'll know that at times the best strategy is to simply make Joker do a lot of work to win points.
That said - Joker knows all this and I expect him to come out firing. So I am going to take him for a 1st set bet, I'm going to then live bet on Nadal, and I'm going to be on the O3.5 sets for the match.
The only scenario that will complete fk me is Nadal winning 3-0 but can't see that happening.Comment -
Don't be so sure about Djokovic's fitness/injury issues. He's a known faker! Uses this strategy all the time to an advantage.
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14-14 even on the vote .I'm taking Nadal the lefty againComment -
this poll is 50/50 essentially... I planned on going all in for this game, but I might just go all in on the over insteadComment -
Djoker is a bitch , He'll lose tonightOriginally posted by MikailDon't be so sure about Djokovic's fitness/injury issues. He's a known faker! Uses this strategy all the time to an advantage.
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I wish. Then I could hammer the underdog and increase my winnings but it's not that easy. Gotta pay the juice to win here. Djoker is the winner. IMOOriginally posted by sportfan
Djoker is a bitch , He'll lose tonightComment -
He was lucky to pass Murray . I like Nadal chance here , will be a good matchOriginally posted by MikailComment -
He hams up the body language no doubt, but you don't fake a breathing issues - not in 3 straight matches.Originally posted by MikailDon't be so sure about Djokovic's fitness/injury issues. He's a known faker! Uses this strategy all the time to an advantage.Comment -
Great post PR9, wish I had of seen this article.Originally posted by PR9ARTICLE:
"Nadal changes game for Djokovic – but is it enough?"
Novak Djokovic has dominated Rafael Nadal in recent times, but the Spanish great has tweaked his game in a clear strategy to get the better of his Serbian rival.
Another Grand Slam final, another Djokovic-Nadal clash - last year this duo did battle in six important finals with the Serb winning all of them, but can the Spaniard snap his losing streak?
In this blog I will look at how important this match is to Nadal, the elements of his game that Djokovic has been exploiting, and how Rafa has worked on these aspects at the Australian Open with this final in mind.
Last-chance saloon for Rafa?
The Majorcan is not used to failure. But he has lost six big finals in a row to Nole, who last season was pretty much unstoppable.
This final is of tremendous importance for Nadal. His path is constantly troubled by Nole and it's frustrating for him. I'm convinced that if this pattern continues Rafa could lose what has made him so strong throughout his career: his unwavering belief, desire, determination and passion.
Given how much effort he has put into getting past the final hurdle, these repeated blows could well traumatise Nadal. This problem needs to be solved quickly, so Nadal can prove to himself that he can stay the master of the game.
Why has Nadal failed?
There are several reasons why Rafael is struggling against Novak. Here are the main ones:
Nadal's serve, especially his second serve, lacks depth and power; Djokovic, meanwhile, boasts the best returning stats on second serve. Throughout 2011, Nole won the most points on his opponents' second serve. Against Rafa, he's "having fun" when he takes these chances, and always starts these points as the offensive player.
The Spaniard, when challenged like this, plays short and gets punished.
Nadal's general depth of shots is also to blame for his losses against Djokovic. While most players don't take advantage when Nadal shortens his shots, the Serb is outstanding in the way he steps inside the court to take the ball early - taking time off Nadal who, when attacked, plays even shorter.
When Rafa is the attacking one, he doesn't generate enough power to hurt Nole. The Serb is one of the best retrievers in the world and can to go from defence to offence on any ball that doesn't have enough power. This happens a lot in their battles.
What is at stake in this final?
The Serb certainly has the mental edge. Six finals played against the Majorcan, six victories. The numbers tell it all. Furthermore, Nole nearly saw himself lose against Andy Murray, like in the last US Open semi-final against Federer. Rather than fatiguing him, Nole will now feel even more invincible.
Rafa broke down mentally for the first time in his life in a Masters 1000 final against the Serb. He acknowledged it. But I feel he has bounced back since January and regained his legendary fighting spirit. He's ready, now more than ever.
Physically, both players have huge qualities. They both spent a lot of time on court in their semi-final. Even when Nadal has had an extra day off, Novak has previously shown himself to be fresher in their fights.
I have to give a little advantage to the Serb because of this. But Rafa has searched for solutions in two areas that have been troubling his game.
What has Nadal changed with Djokovic in mind?
Nadal has kept 70% of his first serves in play throughout this Australian Open - this shows he is dealing with his aforementioned second-serve problem by seeking to minimise the need to use it; previously he was at 57% of first serves in during his matches against Novak, a stat the Serb exploited ruthlessly last season. By reducing the need to use his second serve Nadal is protecting himself from Nole's attacks on it: Rafa has been preparing for this match against Djokovic. The only issue is that Rafa's best serve - the slice he often uses on deuce and advantage - plays directly to Nole's best shot: his backhand.
Regarding his shot efficiency, Nadal has added some weight on his racquet in order to change his swing weight (from 308 to 314): this means he can get more power and more length on his shots, reducing the shortening and power problem I talked about. He wants to make the Serb move backwards and to be more decisive on attacking balls so he can't turn defence into offence so easily.
Finally, game-plan wise, Rafa has to stop avoiding the diagonal with his backhand on to Nole's forehand. Indeed, it's when he changes to the diagonal shot that he gets punished by the Serbian. He has to make Novak go backwards, forcing him to use his forehand to dictate the game. Will he do it? I'm not sure as he has not had to so far, but I think so.
Personally, I'm convinced Djokovic will play a great match, like he always does against Nadal.
But this time Rafa has a new plan, one he has executed throughout this tournament, and I think he is readier than ever.Comment -
Wow all tied up 50/50 lots of nadal backers all a sudden.. im also on Nadal+140
but just a small play i respect the joker to much.
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Wow buddy huge bet on Nadal there
Lets hope we all cash +140 for Nadal is a great value IMOComment -
I feel deep down that murray was a harder matchup for Joker. Murray has a better serve and a better backhand than Nadal.Originally posted by sportfan
Those are two massive attributes joker can easily take advantage of against nadal in big ways - that he couldn't do as successfully against murray.
Some people say that joker isn't as invincible as he was last year, that may be partly because he faced a tougher matchup for his style in murray. Nadal's BH isn't what it was 3 years ago either.
moreover.. nadal is a moonballer, and murray isn't. And joker eats moonballer's alive
tennis is like boxing in which your betting styles. You cannot say player A beat player B , and B beat C, that it must mean player A easily has it over player C.
Quite thee contrary. It's all about styles. And Nadal is more limited in style than mostComment -
the more i think about it the more i think the only way joker loses this is if he comes in overconfident from beating nadal so many times recently.. causing unforced errors, and he plays uncharacteristically. Otherwise it's hard for me to see him losing. Nadal may have augmented his game a bit, but I think it's too soon to fully cover the gap between the 2, and nadal's contrasting style that has been cemented for years. You can't just change like a flick of a switch, its not that easy when going up against the #1 player in the world.
I mean, nadal just said yesterday that the revisions to his game need more tournaments and months to perfect. He said he needs refinement time. Unless he was playing possum with those statements, its hard for me to see him winning today. Making a small to medium size wager on joker here. But deep down I want Nadal to win as I like him a lot more as a person and character than DjokComment -
best game ever.. now while watching nfl probowl.. aaron rodgers and jokers almost looks the same.. personality and fighting spirit, best game everComment
