Thinking about going big on Serena to win the tournament.

baskets · 01-21-12, 08:26 PM

no way. too old. she's inherently lazy. in the past she thought she could just show up and not practice. that won't work anymore even though the women's game sucks right now.

so she'll crash in the semis/finals.. or possibly earlier. and then like a true non-champion that she is, she'll threaten to stuff the tennis balls down some Asian line girl's throat. what a disgrace to the history of sports she is.

can you imagine Joe Montana saying that to some guy holding the 4th down chain on the football field, lol?

benrama · 01-21-12, 08:27 PM

Both plays have a great chance of hitting but like all futures you'd have got way better odds putting those $500 on the respective players to win on the ML each game, and carry it over, probably end up with more like +450 and +150.

E.g. even taking the low side of the odds, Djokovic will probably be $1.25 to Ferrer, $1.30 to Murray and $1.50 to to Nadal/Federer.

1.25 x 1.3 x 1.5 = $2.43, add another few % to beat Hewitt and you probably have close to $2.50 odds by the end.

LovetoSpooge · 01-21-12, 08:34 PM

Originally posted by baskets

no way. too old. she's inherently lazy. in the past she thought she could just show up and not practice. that won't work anymore even though the women's game sucks right now.

so she'll crash in the semis/finals.. or possibly earlier. and then like a true non-champion that she is, she'll threaten to stuff the tennis balls down some Asian line girl's throat. what a disgrace to the history of sports she is.

can you imagine Joe Montana saying that to some guy holding the 4th down chain on the football field, lol?

Banking on the fact the womens game isn't great at the moment.

And while I agree her attitude at times is rediculous to call her a non-champion is pretty lol.

LovetoSpooge · 01-21-12, 08:35 PM

Originally posted by benrama

Both plays have a great chance of hitting but like all futures you'd have got way better odds putting those $500 on the respective players to win on the ML each game, and carry it over, probably end up with more like +450 and +150.

E.g. even taking the low side of the odds, Djokovic will probably be $1.25 to Ferrer, $1.30 to Murray and $1.50 to to Nadal/Federer.

1.25 x 1.3 x 1.5 = $2.43, add another few % to beat Hewitt and you probably have close to $2.50 odds by the end.

thanks, I didn't actually consider this will likely go down this route, (haven't actually booked the bets yet.)

benrama · 01-21-12, 09:35 PM

Originally posted by LovetoSpooge

thanks, I didn't actually consider this will likely go down this route, (haven't actually booked the bets yet.)

Great - well trust me as someone who does play futures a bit, you are almost always better off playing the ML each time. Books love you to play futures as you are essentially handing them free money on the odds - the one exception to this is real outsiders who have been - arguably - poorly priced - the 100:1 and 1000:1 shots. These you have to play as futures to get the true value (though really they should be treated like cheap lottery tickets) as the odds shorten really quickly if they start performing (e.g. STL in last seasons MLB). The known contenders are always priced quite accurately so ML is the only way to get true value.

BOL with your plays.

baskets · 01-21-12, 09:47 PM

she is a non-champion

really, what do you expect? she is basically a man playing against woman who do not have the endurance, speed, agility and power that she does. it's like LeBron James. the guy has the heart of a loser, but being that he is blessed with out-of-this-world genetics, he's head and shoulders above almost all other nba athletes... and is thus at the top of the nba

ditto Serena. there are simply no humans to complete with their athleticism.

LovetoSpooge · 01-21-12, 09:57 PM

Originally posted by baskets

she is a non-champion

really, what do you expect? she is basically a man playing against woman who do not have the endurance, speed, agility and power that she does. it's like LeBron James. the guy has the heart of a loser, but being that he is blessed with out-of-this-world genetics, he's head and shoulders above almost all other nba athletes... and is thus at the top of the nba

ditto Serena. there are simply no humans to complete with their athleticism.

Not really sure how to counter an argument with someone claiming that an athlete isn't a champion because they are the most athletic, but there's a fair difference between winning 27 Grand Slam titles (singles & doubles) and not winning any championship rings. I'm not sure who you can qualify as a champion if you're going to omit her due to her physical strength as then you can just pick people willy nilly and say that aren't a champion ie. Federer isn't a champion because no-one had the skill/talent to match him at his peak.

baskets · 01-21-12, 10:43 PM

Fed is different

Serena is like a heavyweight boxer of 250 lbs repeatedly facing a featherweight boxer. Or 100 level ATP guy facing the top WTA women. It's just not physically fair.

Also, I was referring to the mental components of a champion. Serena does not have those. Yes, I've seen her outwill feeble white women but that's b/c she was playing women not even remotely on her physical par. A true champion would be Nadal or Michael Chang... fighting to death and giving it their all. Serena is the opposite of that.

Anyways, my bottom line argument is that Serena is trash. She was born trash and always will be. It's like LeBron's mom.... punching a valet b/c the keys weren't delivered on time... same with Serena threatening to kill the lineswoman.

I mean, how much of a non-cultured, uncivilized human being do you have to be to threaten to ******* kill a lineswoman in front of millions of people on television.

If that's the class of champion she is on world television, imagine the effing bitch she must be when not on camera. Wow!

baskets · 01-21-12, 10:47 PM

And during her whole career she's always sauntered in sometimes 40 lbs overweight.... just like lazy Shaq.

Same with the Shaq. Guy could've won a couple more rings if he had just practiced ft's and stayed away from the dinner table.

But both Shaq and Serena were physically light years ahead of the competition.... so they could roll into the height of competition and still dominate.

I mean, look at Serena. She's easily 40 lbs above where a committed athlete should be at. If she actually trained, had a regimen, was disciplined, and practiced.... she wouldn't be a fat lard.... and she would roll all these Mary Poppins bitches 6-0, 6-0 .. even at the finals level. But she knows that 20% will get her paid and fed.... so why give 21%?

face · 01-21-12, 11:20 PM

i agree that serena is very fat, but i think it's a great idea, serena very powerful game right now and will probably win

baskets · 01-21-12, 11:37 PM

Serena won't win. Djok is a great bet, however.

Serena is approaching the tail end of her career. She'll storm thru the early rounds but her lack of committment will kill her in the money rounds. She won't be able to just 'get by' like she did in the past. And that's when she'll turn on the press and the fans. Just watch.

Guaranteed to happen.

LovetoSpooge · 01-22-12, 12:07 AM

Originally posted by baskets

Serena won't win. Djok is a great bet, however.

Serena is approaching the tail end of her career. She'll storm thru the early rounds but her lack of committment will kill her in the money rounds. She won't be able to just 'get by' like she did in the past. And that's when she'll turn on the press and the fans. Just watch.

Guaranteed to happen.

Financially I hope you're wrong but i'm not too bothered if you're right, nothing says entertainment like a good old fashioned tennis blowup.