Wawrinka / Baghdatis

[gregm]

I loathe wagering on Wawrinka on the side here, he has let me down so many times but he did make it to the quarterfinals last year at the Aussie before failing to cover my handicap and just being crushed by Federer, very unpredictable guy to bet on.

Baghdatis seems to be in great form judging from Brisbane and Sydney so far and looked great against Becker in the first round. Wawrink has the better stats and h2h but its been awhile since these guys played. Staying with the total, should be a great match. Tons of Greeks at this one I am sure, so should be a pro Baghdatis crowd, but he has retired the last two years here so I hope he is fit.

Wawrinka/ Baghdatis over 39.5 -130 risk 3.9

Wagering on Donald Young is not something I have had much success at either, but he did beat Lacko last year at the US Open pretty convincingly in straight sets. It was a much more impressive win for Lacko in the first round over Ljubicic than Young going 5 sets with a challenger like Gojowczyk. I think we will see alot of tight matches tonight so I am leaning to Young but right now taking a total.

Young / Lacko over 39.5 +100 risk 1

Isner -Nalbandian over 41.5 -110 risk 1.10

Nadal-Haas over 27.5 -130 risk 1.3

Tomic -4.5 -125 risk 1.25

Karlovic -5 +110 risk 1

M.Barthel -4 -140 risk 1.4

J.Goerges ML -270 risk 2.7

I like Mchale but I just dont see laying the 4 game handicap.

[JNic]

Baggy is not in great form. I think he looked like shit in Sydney. His serve is shit again, he's passive and inconsistent on the baseline. But Wawrinka does really ******* suck, so the over should be a great play

[gregm]

Baghdatis did beat Del Potro at Sydney and made it to the semis, his serve numbers were pretty bad in that semi match against Benneteau but his first serve numbers looked good against Becker. Last year Marcos was another one of those unreliable wagers, I wouldnt touch the side in this one with these two guys but I would lean to Wawrinka. I just hope Marcos doesnt retire again and can last a long 4 or 5 setter and bring in this over.

Voskoboeva -180 risk 1.8 Pironkova beat her in 2010 here but the wheels have really come off for Pironkova. I didnt see either of these players getting this far but the difference in form is immense.

Dolgopolov-6 -105 risk 1.05 You cant look at the Jones/Dolgopolov 5 setter and really gauge Dolgys performance, he totally crushed Jones after that second set and he spent less time on the court than some 3 or 4 set matches. Kamke is very average on hard courts though he did take Kohl to five sets last year at the Aussie, that was pretty rare from looking at his numbers on hard courts last year.

McHale -4 -118 risk 1.18 I had Safarova beating Erakovic in my tourney picks but Mchale looked very strong in that first round. seems to be a popular pick on the boards, probably not a good thing

Anderson -5 -130 risk 1.3 Kevin Anderson seems fit and playing well and I had Stakhovsky in the first round but he was lucky to win that 5 setter against Marchenko, Marchenko couldnt serve to save his life.

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[EaglesPhan36]

I'm with you on that over. Baghdatis' serve has been hit or miss, but he's got the ability to pound out aces as he did in Round 1. I fukkin' hate Wawrinka because the dude is one of my #1 burners over the last year, screwing me in parlays a lot. I think this match is set for a good ebb and flow, rollercoaster style because of the inconsistent play each can have.

[dRavidC]

Both Young and Lacko played five setters. given the inexperience and age of these two players i think who ever wins will win pretty easily. but who am i to say i've been going terribly in this year's aussie open.