New Shari Tennis Thread for 2012

brandoc · 12-31-11, 03:30 PM

YES!!!!!

beefcake · 12-31-11, 05:27 PM

Hell yes!!

BrianLaverty · 12-31-11, 06:02 PM

She encourages me to post more in the tennis forum..... since I'm going to, its only right that she does it too....

shari91 · 12-31-11, 07:03 PM

Hi Optional... thank you for this thread. It's really lovely!

I stopped with my big thread because I really just didn't have time to answer every post and PM any more and I really felt rude and guilty. When I started to work for SBR I thought Mods just gave out infractions and moved threads once in awhile but in actuality, most of the stuff I do a poster would never see.

But I've got a pretty good handle on balancing everything now so how about I use this thread for my Brisbane, Sydney and Aussie Open plays? Can't commit to much after that because after running the Open contest it might burn me out again but we'll see how it goes... I'll definitely post my Aussie stuff in here though.

brandoc · 12-31-11, 09:40 PM

Optional · 01-01-12, 01:52 AM

Well that was much easier than expected!

Great news Shari.

Thanks.

Demonata · 01-01-12, 10:08 AM

Awesome.

shari91 · 01-07-12, 07:10 PM

Ok Optional... I played these quite early in the morning and forgot to enter them on my sheet. And when I did, I didn't even realise Bohli had already played so I pushed that one on there. Mannarino's already started now too so I won't bother posting that one.

But here are my other plays:

Reynolds/Niculescu +121

Ivanovic -217

Jovanovski -200

There were a few others I liked today as well but I'm going to stick with the ones that clear the highest for me so there may not be as many dogs as I usually play in the 1st round this time.

Optional · 01-07-12, 09:07 PM

Thanks Shari. You make it sound like it's just for me

I'm just following Penetta tanking the 2nd set as last leg of a Raonic/Kanepi/her parlay.

I'm feeling a bit out of touch still. Have taken a few chalky parlays is about it. So glad you're started.

I've backed Makarova through the qualifiers in Sydney btw. You tipped her as a big dog in 1st round both here and Aussie Open last year and I tailed both.

Then during the year I think I hit her 4 or 5 times more as a first round dog, pretty much based just on that experience of tailing you, and hope most times.

But still, she paid off as a 1st round dog a lot the last 12 months.

I'm hoping she comes up against someone good to try on the big odds again.

Might start using spreadsheet for tennis plays too.

shari91 · 01-07-12, 09:17 PM

Originally posted by Optional

Thanks Shari. You make it sound like it's just for me

I'm just following Penetta tanking the 2nd set as last leg of a Raonic/Kanepi/her parlay.

I'm feeling a bit out of touch still. Have taken a few chalky parlays is about it. So glad you're started.

I've backed Makarova through the qualifiers in Sydney btw. You tipped her as a big dog in 1st round both here and Aussie Open last year and I tailed both.

Then during the year I think I hit her 4 or 5 times more as a first round dog, pretty much based just on that experience of tailing you, and hope most times.

But still, she paid off as a 1st round dog a lot the last 12 months.

I'm hoping she comes up against someone good to try on the big odds again.

Might start using spreadsheet for tennis plays too.

haha

I watched a bit of that Pennetta 2nd set when I realised Ana was going to piss the match away. Had to turn it off though because the sound was dodgy. Makarova's always a been a bit of a favourite of mine. Her price was too low for me today simply because I haven't seen her play in awhile... nice to see her smoke Hercog though. And yeah the spreadsheet is a really good tool. I use a different one for all of my bets across all sports, including live betting, because it has some formulas and filters built in that I'd never be able to come up with on my own. But keeping track of your bets formally is definitely a good way to analyse your betting. Like I said, I knew to stay away last week even though in years past I'd still go for it because the temptation after the tennis break was too strong. It's made a big difference to how I go about things although I'll still throw things in for action at times. I'm not THAT strong yet

Optional · 01-07-12, 09:27 PM

I like the Over 21 in Brisbane final quite a bit. I think dolgo will try and grind it out and run Murray around, and has been hard to break. Can't see it being as easy as 6-4 6-4. A tie break or 3 sets is a good bet I think.

Going to parlay it with your Niculescu for +150 as well Shari.

shari91 · 01-07-12, 09:34 PM

Originally posted by Optional

I like the Over 21 in Brisbane final quite a bit. I think dolgo will try and grind it out and run Murray around, and has been hard to break. Can't see it being as easy as 6-4 6-4. A tie break or 3 sets is a good bet I think.

Going to parlay it with your Niculescu for +150 as well Shari.

I only saw a bit of Dolgo this week during the first set of the Stepanek match and he was being his typically donkey self at the time so I have no clue what to even think of that one. Hard to know what to think about his win over Simon without having seen it. I added Daniilidou and Peng to my sheet. Hopefully don't regret the late additions

Optional · 01-07-12, 09:47 PM

I saw most of the Simon match and half of the Stephanek one and Dolgo looked solid as a rock on serve. (Simon looked asleep though) He has won 9 of 10 sets so far, and only the one 4-6. Not sure if that means he has only been broken the once, but that was main reasoning.

Plus I always imagine Murray having a bad period in every match. Got to be a tie break. Then even a 6-3 will do fine.

shari91 · 01-07-12, 09:57 PM

Originally posted by Optional

I saw most of the Simon match and half of the Stephanek one and Dolgo looked solid as a rock on serve. (Simon looked asleep though) He has won 9 of 10 sets so far, and only the one 4-6. Not sure if that means he has only been broken the once, but that was main reasoning.

Plus I always imagine Murray having a bad period in every match. Got to be a tie break. Then even a 6-3 will do fine.

Yeah you're definitely right. The problem is Dolgo has them too but he's often strong enough to still win the set. Can't really bank on that against Murray. Basically if they both meltdown at the same time, you have to hope he melts down less

Optional · 01-08-12, 12:49 AM

Hmmm... so much for that insight :\

shari91 · 01-08-12, 12:59 AM

Originally posted by Optional

Hmmm... so much for that insight :\

Yeah it's hard with unders in finals to begin with but with those two quacks it makes it that much more difficult. So inconsistent... either of them could smoke their opponents yet they often don't. And then you think they can finally hang because their form is tightening up near the end of a tourney and then this happens. I know people like JJ love semis and Finals but this is exactly why I don't.

Optional · 01-08-12, 01:03 PM

Here's what I am thinking for today. (for anyone reading I've been a near perfect fade so far in 2012)

Any thoughts appreciated, but mostly posting so I can't kid myself about my reads at the end of the day

1/8/2012 7:00 PM WTA Tennis 303 A.Pavlyuchenkova Games Won/A.Petkovic Games Won* Over 20½ +100 - Was just thinking of Petkovic as a parlay leg here but closer look at the stats left me thinking this could easily turn into a 3 setter. So the +100 looked better value to me.

1/8/2012 8:15 PM WTA Tennis 412 H.Watson +110 vs T.Pironkova - Pironkova had a tough start to the year in Perth and came across quite mentally fragile against Wozi I thought. But taking Watson mostly for the surface preference of both players. And Watson having played 3 qualifers already in Hobart whilst Tsvet is travelling across the country from an indoor event.

1/8/2012 8:15 PM Qualifying Tennis 907 Flavio Cipolla* +165 vs Tobias Kamke - Played well in Doha, dominating a WC 60 60 then taking it up to Tsonga. Kamke's worst surface at 51% whilst Cipolla wins on hard courst 62%. Might be a little swayed by my opinion that Cipolla was an up n comer in 2011, but think he's great value as a dog here.

1/8/2012 9:45 PM ATP Tennis 118 James Duckworth* +385 vs Jarkko Nieminen - Not much experience on the surface but Ducky looked better than many expected in Brisbane, and I like the +odds on a home town boy against a journeyman playing on his worst surface.

Will take Makarova against Li Na around +400 I expect, and Hewitt at +odds, when one of my books puts them up too.

These are leans I am tossing up parlaying with each other or some of above.

1/8/2012 7:00 PM WTA Tennis 302 Andrea Petkovic* -185 vs Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova
1/8/2012 11:15 PM ATP Tennis 121 Sergiy Stakhovsky* -215 vs Bobby Reynolds
1/9/2012 3:00 AM WTA Tennis 427 J.Gajdosova Games Won* -1½ -120 vs A.Morita Games Won

Optional · 01-09-12, 01:15 AM

Everything wrong. I'm starting to damage my bankroll and my confidence now at 4-20 for the year, and 0-10 on last 10 bets.

Think I'll stop posting what I think, or betting, and go back to reading mostly for a while. :\

brettels · 01-09-12, 01:39 AM

Geez, keep it simple for yourself, taking makarova against li na are you trying to be a hero? that was just silly! she was in excellent form in perth leading into this match and it showed. Duckworth? he beat mahut i think it was in brisbane, i didn't see that coming but seriously wouldn't have picked him then or since! he is worth monitoring for a year before betting on him. as i said, keep it simple, less headaches.

brettels · 01-09-12, 01:40 AM

Not trying to sound like gods gift to tennis cause im not but they were some terrible selections i think and seems like your way over thinking your bets.

Optional · 01-09-12, 02:31 AM

Yeah Duckworth and Makarova were feel good plays, and small. But I really liked the first 3, especially Cipolla and Watson, and went a bit bigger than I usually do on them *ouch*. Do you think I missed something important in those?

shari91 · 01-09-12, 02:36 AM

Sorry to hear about your run lately Optional. I was out most of the day so I didn't bet anything. I'm going to look at lines tonight and see what looks good for tomorrow.

brettels · 01-09-12, 02:38 AM

yeah i do dumb bets too, like my tomic to win a set, should have just kept it simple and multi'd murray with something. similar to your thought on petkovic, you were on track there with putting her into something or just a single bet was worthy the odds were ok. the watson match i can't comment on cause her and pironkova i haven't really looked it before. i like kamke though as he has value in challengers and qualifications. Kamke is good enough to not need to have to qualify for tournaments in my opinion.