Advice: Would you hedge or let it ride?

[dannyt76]

I have 2 US Open futures alive on the women's side.

Stosur at 50-1 and Petkovic at 50-1. I put 1 unit on each of them.

Stosur plays Zvonareva -140

Petkovic has Wozniacki -220

H2H favors Stosur 7-1 and the day off today should help her out.

Petko even H2H w/ Woz, but Petko did win their meeting on hard court.

Should I hedge a little or just let it ride since it's only 2 units? Any advice is appreciated. Thanks.

[tevari]

let it ride, IMO

reasoning: none

[reformed]

almost no chance she beats woz and then serena but problem is serena will be a heavy fave so its tough to hedge.

[jdrb]

Ride both. Stosur will make the final.

[dannyt76]

almost no chance she beats woz and then serena but problem is serena will be a heavy fave so its tough to hedge.

I agree 100%. That's why I'm leaning on betting on Woz and hoping she wins. There's probably no chance to hedge if Petko faces Serena. I'm seeing Serena -1500 for tomorrow.

[innn]

my lean is that wozniacki beats petkovic in 3 sets , that is the best bet I can come up with personally and that's how I will play it, no way I will take woz ML, BOL

[benrama]

I don't necessarily advise this, but I have done something like this before when I have a longshot future still alive.

1) Narrow down people I think can win the tournament. In this tournament I rule out everyone but Zvon and Williams

2) Get current odds on them to win

Williams -250 (approx)
Zvonareva +850 (approx)

3) Formulate possible hedging strategies

e.g.

Put 2 unit on Zvonareva to win (17)
Put 15 units on Williams (to win 6)

Outcomes:

Williams - win 2 units
Petkovic - win 32 units
Zvonereva - win 0 units
Stosur - win 32 units
Kerber/Woz/Pav/Pen/Kerber - lose 19 units

3) Assign probabilities and calculate expected value

Williams - win 2 units, 75%
Petkovic - win 32 units, 2%
Zvonereva - win 0 units, 10%
Stosur - win 32 units, 5%
Kerber/Woz/Pav/Pen/Kerber - lose 19 units, 8%

Expected return is:

1.5 + 0.64 + 0 + 1.6 - 1.52 = 2.2 units

Now, you can use your own values - this is just an example; and yes, this is risky as you potentially lose 19 units - you also of course, potentially win 32 units. Depends on your bankroll and appetite for risk. You could lay off putting the Serena bet in as I don't think she'll be much more than -300 in the final, and you could wait for this point to hedge.

[Boner_18]

Hedging here can prove quite expensive as each time you bet to break even you must add that total to the "next hedge." LLet it ride.

[dannyt76]

Thanks to everyone for their advice and GL on your bets.

[TomJSports]

Hedging here can prove quite expensive as each time you bet to break even you must add that total to the "next hedge." LLet it ride.

Great, concise advice.