dlweaver's US Open GUARANTEED +$$$

gregm · 08-31-11, 11:22 PM

Very impressive numbers dlweaver. I looked up your spreadsheet and was little disappointed that you don't record your picks over a period of time, why dont you keep your picks on your sbr spreadsheet?

I am pretty surprised this has been successful but I am not going to fault your numbers right now, you cant argue with success. Fantastic job so far. Good luck tomorrow.

dlweaver · 09-01-11, 06:15 AM

Thanks. Sorry I usually just track my picks in my thread and add up the totals there. I haven't gotten into the habit of using the spreadsheet. Thanks for the good luck.

dlweaver · 09-01-11, 07:54 AM

It's interesting how before day 1 everyone said I would fail and now i'm up 22 units after day 3.

bruceBRUCEbruce · 09-01-11, 08:09 AM

Originally posted by dlweaver

It's interesting how before day 1 everyone said I would fail and now i'm up 22 units after day 3.

predictable also. some of these guys couldn't pick their noses with 100 fingers. keep up the good work!

Originally posted by dlweaver

Added: pennetta -400

was my biggest play yesterday. I don't mind laying the juice when I see value. good luck today.

jackskin · 09-01-11, 08:09 AM

Because they think the only good bets are dog wagers. They do not like it when you win on a favorite.
They analyse and give good reasons why to play or not to play a player. Then they lose on their smart dog play.

Your doing fantastic dlweaver, especially with all the picks you make.
Keep showing them you can win with favorites.

dlweaver · 09-01-11, 08:11 AM

Thanks for the encouragement guys. I won't pick a dog just because they are a dog and might have value. I pick who I think WILL WIN. Am I always correct? Nope. But favorites do win just like underdogs do.

EaglesPhan36 · 09-01-11, 08:30 AM

If you pick winners, obviously you're going to be up a certain number of units regardless of price. To each his own on how to wager IMO. I don't have the stones to lay any of these big prices because one loss at huge odds wipes away all your winnings and it seems to happen almost every tournament.

The thing with this sort of wagering as well is that you have to have a substantial bankroll to start which isn't everyone's caability.

msj0001 · 09-01-11, 08:32 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

If you pick winners, obviously you're going to be up a certain number of units regardless of price. To each his own on how to wager IMO. I don't have the stones to lay any of these big prices because one loss at huge odds wipes away all your winnings and it seems to happen almost every tournament.

The thing with this sort of wagering as well is that you have to have a substantial bankroll to start which isn't everyone's caability.

100% true...see K. Beck from yesterday, whipped out 5/6 of my winnings

dlweaver · 09-01-11, 08:34 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

If you pick winners, obviously you're going to be up a certain number of units regardless of price. To each his own on how to wager IMO. I don't have the stones to lay any of these big prices because one loss at huge odds wipes away all your winnings and it seems to happen almost every tournament.

The thing with this sort of wagering as well is that you have to have a substantial bankroll to start which isn't everyone's caability.

The bankroll thing is a necessity and yes it is true everyone cannot afford to bet the favorites. However, even when betting high faves such as -500 I still only risk 5 units to win 1 unit (even though that is a small amount) instead of risking 25 units to win 5 units in which it would be a HUGE RISK to bet the favorite. By only betting 5 units or an even amount on high faves you cut down your risk and can afford one of them to lose at some point, BUT you obviously don't win as much. In my opinion it is the SMARTER play but not necessarily the popular one.

dlweaver · 09-01-11, 08:37 AM

Originally posted by msj0001

100% true...see K. Beck from yesterday, whipped out 5/6 of my winnings

because you risked 4 times as much on one play rather than the same amount as an underdog or slight favorite

EaglesPhan36 · 09-01-11, 08:39 AM

Yeah tennis betting period, sticking with a steady units risked amount is the only way to do it. When you go big, you usually go home empty handed.

dlweaver · 09-01-11, 08:41 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Yeah tennis betting period, sticking with a steady units risked amount is the only way to do it. When you go big, you usually go home empty handed.

Exactly EP.... from 2010 to 2011 that is my biggest difference and it pays dividends even though you may not win as much all at once it steadily increases your profit IF you can stay disciplined.

msj0001 · 09-01-11, 09:30 AM

lesson learned, my only problem is that I use a local bookie who has his own online website. The only US Open bets you can make are the Moneylines. So over/unders, totals, etc. all out of the question for me. But hey, when life gives you lemons, say f\*\*k lemonade and bail

dlweaver · 09-01-11, 10:07 AM

Day 4 Us Open Plays
**All plays risking 5 units**

Schiavone -650
Cetkovska +120
Kanepi -250
Petkovic -375
Kuznetsova -400
Verdasco -700
Haas +110
Cilic -175
Monfils -575
Dolgopolov -850

A few matches are set to begin. Lets hope for another successful day.

msj0001 · 09-01-11, 10:10 AM

Im on Cilic and Haas too, lets make some cash

gregm · 09-01-11, 10:26 AM

Good luck dlweaver. My advice is to take your winnings and cut back dramatically and you will still end up in the black for the tourney. if you like these big favorites, just wager them with a handicap(Verdasco -7, -110 risk 1.10,Kuznetsova -5.5 -110 risk 2) etc. and risk one or 2 units at the most.

You may not have as spectacular numbers as you have but in the end you will have made money, right now you have over 50 units in play on some heavy favorites , even a decent day or a winning day going 6-4 and winning on the heavy favorites and you will be eating into your profits big time. You have done a great job being up 22 units, I would just seriously think about scaling back and walking away with some good earnings from this tourney.

Cheers

yisman · 09-01-11, 10:28 AM

he only has 50 in play today

10 plays, 5 units risked apiece

dlweaver · 09-01-11, 11:07 AM

right i only have 50 total units in play. gregm by using your theory you are saying I should bet the favorites to cover the spread. Just because I like them to win doesn't mean I think they can cover a 5-7 game spread.

jackskin · 09-01-11, 11:37 AM

Keep doing what you are doing and don't listen to the loser critics

gregm · 09-01-11, 11:42 AM

I understand about betting handicaps or betting dogs, it can be a real grind at times. Maybe looking into scaling back to betting 1 or 2 units on your wagers, betting 1 unit on -700 is barely worth the time to research the wager though.

If I were up 22 units in a couple of days or even the whole tourney, I would probably just cash out and go buy that Gibson sg guitar I have been looking at or some new clothes for summer, I would definitely be shopping. LOL. You have done a great job in this tourney, take those winnings and enjoy yourself.

dlweaver · 09-01-11, 11:42 AM

Originally posted by dlweaver

Day 4 Us Open Plays
**All plays risking 5 units**

Schiavone -650
Cetkovska +120
Kanepi -250
Petkovic -375
Kuznetsova -400
Verdasco -700
Haas +110
Cilic -175
Monfils -575
Dolgopolov -850

A few matches are set to begin. Lets hope for another successful day.

Just added:

Bubka +2000
Risking 5 units to win 100 units

rgordon1687 · 09-01-11, 12:21 PM

Way too big of a risk on that even though it would be a great win if he can pull it out.

dlweaver · 09-01-11, 12:23 PM

Originally posted by rgordon1687

Way too big of a risk on that even though it would be a great win if he can pull it out.

a 5 unit risk isn't too much. Also, bubka looked solid in the 1st round and thru qualifying and he has played here in NYC for over a week. Tsonga is beatable and I can see him giving him trouble.

dlweaver · 09-01-11, 04:42 PM

I got limited to only $100 at my book. Good thing I'm changing books tomorrow. Geez

Tsonga · 09-01-11, 04:48 PM

Which book is that?

Is this because you are re-loading?

yisman · 09-01-11, 04:58 PM

American books limiting on tennis/soccer is very common.

dlweaver · 09-01-11, 05:20 PM

Originally posted by Tsonga

Which book is that?

Is this because you are re-loading?

No it's because I've cashed out a lot from them and still winning consistently. I was limited in NFL an baseball as well.

Zion21 · 09-01-11, 05:25 PM

So what is the verdict on this? Worth the investment?

dlweaver · 09-01-11, 05:25 PM

Is what worth the investment?

JNic · 09-01-11, 06:20 PM

If Dolgo can hold on it looks like another positive day for you

Big props for winning with this juice

dlweaver · 09-01-11, 06:26 PM

Thanks JNic. It's been a nice run.

yisman · 09-01-11, 06:27 PM

Very impressive. Didn't think it could be done. Keep it up.

dlweaver · 09-01-11, 06:32 PM

Day 4 Us Open Plays
**All plays risking 5 units**

Schiavone -650
Cetkovska +120 cancelled
Kanepi -250
Petkovic -375
Kuznetsova -400
Verdasco -700
Haas +110
Cilic -175
Monfils -575
Dolgopolov -850
Bubka +2000

dlweaver · 09-01-11, 07:26 PM

Finished the day 7-3 down just 1.99 units

3 losses= -$1500
7 wins= +$1301

Total for Day 4: -$199 Down 1.99 units

dlweaver · 09-01-11, 07:46 PM

Day 4 Results:
(7-3)
3 losses= -$1500
7 wins= +$1301
Total for day 4= -$199 or -1.99 units

Day 1: (19-6) +3.1 units
Day 2: (17-7) +8.15 units
Day 3: (7-1) +11.4 units
Day 4: (7-3) -1.99 units

US Open Tournament Total: (50-17) +20.66 units