I been trying to figure this out since I saw the line when it first came out yesterday. I know the match is over, but I'm hoping to gather an answer on this which could perhaps be of help for future reference regarding these tennis matchups. The match was between Juan Monaco and Janko Tipseravic. The rankings, the records, the head to head matchup all tell me Tipseravic should have won and been favored... He was an underdog and lost?
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Smart people figured Tipseravic has no "desire" for this tournament. Plus, he's not good on clay.Comment -
His YTD record is 28-16 and his record on clay prior to his match with Juan Monaco was 6-4.. It's pretty decent nd his ranking clearly shows he's better then Monaco.. I would assume your argument that he didn't have any desire for this tournament does make a bit of sense though. This is why I like betting players like Andy Murray, Nadal, Djokovik and the higher ranked players. They have desire to win each and every time they step onto a court no matter what they are playing for.Comment -
Most tennis players have a favourite play surface (clay, hard, grass) on which they perform better ... for ex., most spanish players prefer clay (Nadal, Ferrer, Almagro, Monaco, etc.), big servers like to play on fast surfaces and will have a greater success there but they will have problems on clay ... this is one reason why you will see a lot of times odds that do not corespond with the players ranks ...Comment -
Tips isn't terrible on clay, but his (attacking) groundies aren't really reliable enough for the longer rallies. Thus he's not rated too highly on the stuff.
That's clay as an average. However, Hamburg the ball really flies since they changed things around in 2009 (new balls, warmer part of the year), and attacking players can do quite well now. See the final's since: Davydenko-Mathieu, Melzer-Golubev. These are all aggressive players, not unlike Tips himself.
For Tipsarevic, you basically need to know how quick the clay is - on the slower stuff he's awful, and often just gives up. Altitude clay, Roland Garros, new Hamburg, maybe Rome, and Barcelona some years - these are all much better for him.
Lines don't tend to take the subtleties of courtspeed into account much though. On clay it's quite important, especially when it rains they become dog slow, and all the dynamics change completely.Comment -
Thanks for the info, much appreciated. It's good to just be able to know this stuff for future reference before puttin $$ down on a match that seems like a sure fire lock when it's not.Comment
