I have been reading so much about Tsonga tonight, you would think he is coming off a fantastic year. It reminds me of the stuff about Lisicki I was reading Wednesday night, people seem to have forgotten that other than her win at Birmingham, she really had not been impressive all year.
I love Tsonga's style of play and he is actually one of my favorite players on the tour, if he pulls off a miracle and wins Wimbledon it would be a blast to watch. The problem I have with all this talk of Tsonga is that he really is not coming off a very good year, and he is far from from being this major force on grass people are making him out to be.
He has never won a major championship on grass, his numbers are not all that better on grass than Djokovics, around 42-10 since 2000 and Djokovic is 40-12. He has played more matches on grass lately than Djokovic and while he did look great at Queens beating Nadal, he did go on to lose to Murray in the final and he also lost to Stepanek a little over a week later.
Radek Stepanek.
I will admit that maybe the Stepanek loss was in a tourney in Eastbourne and maybe he didn't see any strategic importance in staying in the tourney but I am struggling to understand all the love for Tsonga in this match. The Federer match was an incredible win but tons of people have been beating Federer this year, no one is praising Gasquet to the skies for beating Fed at Rome or Melzer beating Federer in Monte Carlo.
Federer is just not winning championships this year, plain and simple. I watched that match and while Tsonga served fantastic, he looked awful in those first two sets. Maybe I was missing something but I didn't think Tsonga looked as fantastic as people made him out to be, Tsonga's serving was incredible but I thought Fed just imploded.
The head to head to record is certainly in Tsongas favor but you may as well throw out the stats on Djokovic from previous years compared to the way he is playing right now. 46-1, one win away from being number one in the world. On the baseline, Nole is a far superior player, Tsonga has so much power he could move Federer and that one handed backhand so far back beyond the baseline you are bound to make errors. The Djokovic backhand is way too strong for that, and Djokovic has one the best return games out there.
You will see Djokovic flying all over trying to return those Tsonga serves but he can get some of them back and thats when the fun starts. My big question for Tsonga backers is can Tsonga serve consistently enough to keep Nole on his heels. My big wager will be based on serving, I think props is the way to go today.
Noles lack of big wins on grass, and the fact he has never beat a top 10 player on grass other than Robredo and the fact I have a small futures on him at wimbledon makes me shy way from the handicap for much more than a unit. Djokovic is the best player in tennis right now, I love reading these press conferences tonight with Nole about the match where he praises Tsonga on grass and disparages his own grass pedigree. Come on, you are 46-1 this year and just beat Nadal twice on clay. Clay. These press conference are all strategic and such BS , an average showing against Federer not withstanding , this guy is on a whole another level right now.
Djokovic/Tsonga - My big bet is on a prop- tie break in the match yes-160 5dimes My only worry is Tsongas serve holding up, his return game is atrocious and as long as he is serving well it should come through
Djokovic -3 -135 1 unit
Over 40.5 games 1 unit
I am to tired to write anymore but this is a huge wager for me. I figure if Nadal can't "batter" Mardy Fish and chips and beat him in straight sets, Murray should at least get a set off him unlike in the other wimbledon matchup. I actually like the numbers on Murray to win here but he has let me down before.
Murray/Nadal Over 3.5 sets -205 5dimes Huge wager for me
Cheers
I love Tsonga's style of play and he is actually one of my favorite players on the tour, if he pulls off a miracle and wins Wimbledon it would be a blast to watch. The problem I have with all this talk of Tsonga is that he really is not coming off a very good year, and he is far from from being this major force on grass people are making him out to be.
He has never won a major championship on grass, his numbers are not all that better on grass than Djokovics, around 42-10 since 2000 and Djokovic is 40-12. He has played more matches on grass lately than Djokovic and while he did look great at Queens beating Nadal, he did go on to lose to Murray in the final and he also lost to Stepanek a little over a week later.
Radek Stepanek.
I will admit that maybe the Stepanek loss was in a tourney in Eastbourne and maybe he didn't see any strategic importance in staying in the tourney but I am struggling to understand all the love for Tsonga in this match. The Federer match was an incredible win but tons of people have been beating Federer this year, no one is praising Gasquet to the skies for beating Fed at Rome or Melzer beating Federer in Monte Carlo.
Federer is just not winning championships this year, plain and simple. I watched that match and while Tsonga served fantastic, he looked awful in those first two sets. Maybe I was missing something but I didn't think Tsonga looked as fantastic as people made him out to be, Tsonga's serving was incredible but I thought Fed just imploded.
The head to head to record is certainly in Tsongas favor but you may as well throw out the stats on Djokovic from previous years compared to the way he is playing right now. 46-1, one win away from being number one in the world. On the baseline, Nole is a far superior player, Tsonga has so much power he could move Federer and that one handed backhand so far back beyond the baseline you are bound to make errors. The Djokovic backhand is way too strong for that, and Djokovic has one the best return games out there.
You will see Djokovic flying all over trying to return those Tsonga serves but he can get some of them back and thats when the fun starts. My big question for Tsonga backers is can Tsonga serve consistently enough to keep Nole on his heels. My big wager will be based on serving, I think props is the way to go today.
Noles lack of big wins on grass, and the fact he has never beat a top 10 player on grass other than Robredo and the fact I have a small futures on him at wimbledon makes me shy way from the handicap for much more than a unit. Djokovic is the best player in tennis right now, I love reading these press conferences tonight with Nole about the match where he praises Tsonga on grass and disparages his own grass pedigree. Come on, you are 46-1 this year and just beat Nadal twice on clay. Clay. These press conference are all strategic and such BS , an average showing against Federer not withstanding , this guy is on a whole another level right now.
Djokovic/Tsonga - My big bet is on a prop- tie break in the match yes-160 5dimes My only worry is Tsongas serve holding up, his return game is atrocious and as long as he is serving well it should come through
Djokovic -3 -135 1 unit
Over 40.5 games 1 unit
I am to tired to write anymore but this is a huge wager for me. I figure if Nadal can't "batter" Mardy Fish and chips and beat him in straight sets, Murray should at least get a set off him unlike in the other wimbledon matchup. I actually like the numbers on Murray to win here but he has let me down before.
Murray/Nadal Over 3.5 sets -205 5dimes Huge wager for me
Cheers
