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the play i made was not a bad play, it was a losing playI follow a similar strategy like yours, but I do a lot of DD on a few matches that I play on. I only go really big on odds below 1.25. It can work, you just have to not be tempted when you are winning as well as losing. You must have your own convincing reasons to go big. Got Sharapova and Nadal today @1.2 and 1.22. Looks like I am going to stop now and just bet normal size. Good luck with your future plays. Good in sharing info together
but it was a risk i didnt need to take, i shud have stuck to the plan
if i had made it through today, i woulda ended the tourney with close to 5kComment -
IMO, Betting a player to win the first set is like betting a soccer to win by half time. There is always more risk involved!Comment -
Ah yes. Nadal being gracious towards his fellow countrymen and usual bitch, Ferrer, by playing out the 3 sets. That had to be a huge mindfuck to witness with money on the line. Nadal could have easily retired and nobody would have faulted him. He was barely walking on the court.
There was a millionaire that bet a mil on Nadal for that match and lost it too. Wonder if he was praying for a retirement or if his book even would have voided it.Comment -
I have noticed that with sports betting. Plenty of times the losing team or player is up by a certain inning, period, half, quarter, or set. It's usually the wise thing to only play the final result, since that's more indicative of the better team/player. But I could certainly understand liking Federer to win the 1st set when he usually coasted against Youzhny in his career and gave no reason he'd actually lose it.Comment -
my thinking was that federer always wins the first set in a major against lesser opponents
he was up 4-2 and 4-3 when it was his serve, so he shud have closed him out ..............
but i didnt need to take that risk, cuz the dude cruised the rest of the wayComment -
It was very unlucky because Youzhny has a shocking 1st set record too, I've often backed underdogs against him in the first set due to this, with good success.
I still like your strategy and have been doing something similar but just not posting in on SBR because that's always a curse for me.
I'm going to do one final parlay for Djokovic/Federer/Murray tomorrow (Nadal too risky with injury), wish me luck!Comment -
What happens if you bet against Nadal and he retires in the middle of the match with an injury..Do you win that bet at +500 or what ever the line is???Comment -
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Seems to me the problem is not whether it's a bad play, but money management. You can not just keep going all in and expect to win long term. Somehow you are going to get screwed eventually. His style of parlay betting does work long term as long as you spread out the picks and don't have one single player in every single parlay that way you reduce the risk of one player killing you.Comment -
obviously u cant do this long term
im not here to win long term in tennis, i only do this in 4 majors.
look at the people on the mens side that win the majors or get to the quarters and semis
its the same people over and over the last 5-10 years
now the womens side is a whole different story, hahaComment -
I don't know why you're so stubborn defending yourself that you can keep riding your winnings. Yeah the big 4 are usually a lock to get this far into the majors, but you're bound to get a hiccup along the way. Murray usually ends up choking sooner or later like when he lost to Cilic a few years ago I think it was in the US Open. Before that match everybody had him rolling Cilic. I mean Nadal screwed you with the injury against Ferrer in the most recent Aussie Open and he also lost against Soderling due to injury in the French 2 years ago. I'm sure you went all in on Nadal in that French. Hell you were lucky with that 1st big multi parlay you won to double your bank roll at the start that you didn't put Stosur in. You practically had every big favorite in there except for her. Don't tell me that was just exceptional capping on your part to not throw her in. My point is just that you'd think you'd learn by now. Also what about Fed losing the US open to Del Potro couple years ago. Fed had no business losing that final.Comment -
Jsmith,
There are so many different flaws with your betting style so I'll suffice it to say you should save your money and quit gambling. All the luck in the world can't save you.
If you are going to continue to gamble, I would recommend the following 2 pieces of advice:
1. Stop betting parlays
2. Stop betting on massively priced favorites
When you parlay 15 huge favorites, you are paying inflated vig 15X per bet.
You can't possibly win long-term betting that way and you are practically GUARANTEED to lose.Comment -
Those players were to counter your argument that this only works for the majors. They were the plays that you probably would have gone all in on and I bet you probably did.Comment -
Yeah, I did screw up big time going all in on Nadal in the French against Soderling when he lost. Guess what though, I've learned you can't do this because shit can always happen. You obviously still have not because you busted out in the Aussie open from Nadal injury to Ferrer and have busted out again with your Fed 1st set play. Yet you still keep defending the merits of going all in and just doing one big multi parlay and not varying the plays.Comment -
You said that you've been doing this for the majors for awhile now. I find it hard to believe that you did not also bust out on Nadal against Soderling in that French. I mean come on Rafa is the king of clay and I think odds on Nadal against Soderling were -800. No way were you passing on that play.Comment -
wat was the ML on that match?
isnt there merit to this madness? if u make to the 3rd round, u more than 3X ur stack on average
that is, if u make it to the 3rd round, haha
but this is a ticking time bomb, there will always be upsets
there are just less massive upsets in the mens side in the early roundsComment -
The fact is J Smith, if you are winning, then it is not such a problem. People can argue with you the whole day about this strategy. It has worked for me and I will keep on doing it, except I have good money management in taking out my original stake as soon as I am on a plus.
There are different ways of profitable betting. You can argue the whole day, as long as you have the cash to prove them then it does not matter.
I think you should have stopped as soon as you tripled your cash this year. It is a good return and sometimes in life you can't be greedy.
Good luck with your future plays!Comment -
So are they a Lock or Bound to have a hiccup? You sound confused in your lecturing.
And for the parlay naysayers... http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicappe...1-parlays.html.Comment -
Optional, you are the one confused. I jumped into this thread stating Money Management was the downfall of his betting style. It is hard to win longterm if you are risking everything on one parlay. We've seen this already from JrSmith's moneyline threads.
I'm just saying that the guy is stubborn because he still hasn't learned his lesson. His reasoning for the Aussie open loss is I didn't make the wrong play. I only busted out because I was unlucky that Nadal got hurt against Ferrer and to top it off he was playing his fellow countryman so that's why he didn't retire or else I could have gotten my bet canceled. So why is it that I bring up Nadal injury in French against Soderling as a play that JrSmith most likely would have gone all in on and he gets so defensive. It's basically the same play he made on Nadal against Ferrer in Aussie open. Similar lines. Nadal was like -800 to Soderling and -1000 to Ferrer.
Now for this Wimbledon his reasoning for his loss is I shouldn't have been greedy and gone for the 1st set prop, but just stuck with Federer for the game. No your mistake was going all in. Nothing wrong with that prop as Fed has owned Youzny.
My argument that shit happens showed up today with Fed blowing a 2 set to none lead. Hey I thought all the big 4 would win today, but with Nadal being the most vulnerable due to possible reaggravation of the foot injury. Yeah I lost $150 bucks on Fed cause I had him in 6 different $25 multisport parlays, but I still made a profit on the day because I had the other big three in seperate parlays with baseball plays in case one of them did lose. That's my argument. Don't put all your eggs in one basket cause anything can happen.Comment -
I was commenting on the post-play lecturing, not the correctness of the lecture.
You've obviously followed his threads too, so you know he has done amazingly well along the way and have probably been entertained by it. And have seen the Monday morning quarterbacks before.
Who are you to say his all in fun entertainment is wrong over and again? He said he regrets not banking his starting 500, what more do you want him to say? He won't entertain himself this way any more?
Plus he has gone damn close 3 times out of 3 so far. So I'm hoping to see if 4th times the charm! ;-).Comment -
im not here to exercise sensible money management
this is a 2 week tourney and it happens 4X a year
im here to max out on the possibility to win big, and i have been very close
so ur speech abour MM is not needed here, it doesnt apply to wat i want to do
if i had cashed out early in each tourney, u would have nothing to say
but im not here to do that
if i didnt go all in i wouldnt have accumulated the amount that i did
ur not even getting ur story straight beagle, i took a prop bet for ferrer, not the ML, so obviously its not the same thing.
me defensive? no, more like correcting ur assumptions.Comment -
ferrer not to win in 3 sets seemed like a guarantee...that was a shocker for me to wake up and see Nadal playing injured. that match toasted a lot of people.Comment
