El Torino: Juan Ignacio F-ing Chela

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  • EaglesPhan36
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 12-06-06
    • 71662

    #1
    El Torino: Juan Ignacio F-ing Chela
    This is another stupid, wildly dumb idea. But JIC is +540 against a guy with a partially torn tendon in his ankle in Andy Murray. A guy in Murray who was DEAD in the water today had it not been for the admitted nerves of Victor Troicki. It was AMAZING what Murray did in that match. EPIC. Never will be forgotten. But Murray has admitted as much that the ankle could "go" on home at any time. So we're talking about a guy getting a -775 favorites tag and playing on an ankle that could conceivable snap with one wrong slide on the red clay in Paris.

    Yes, the head-2-head suggests Murray is world class and El Torino is ass. Chela has only one set off Murray in their last three meetings, two of which came @ Roland Garros in 2010 and 2009. Sure, Chela will be dealing with some fatigue after a nearly four hour match, but he's also had more rest than Murray. And sure maybe the only shot in this match is for Murray's ankle to snap, but at +540 that is a bet I am willing to take.

    Chela needs a Troicki-esque start to this match in that he needs to have Murray moving all over the court. Test the ankle and get an early lead. Let Murray know he's going to have to play at least four sets. Make it a mental game. Murray is mentally strong to a point. We've seen him crack on the biggest of stages and stage massive rallies as well.

    El Torino is the name some of his contemporaries have thrown onto Juan Ignacio Chela. It means OLD CAR and that's what JIC is, an aging veteran with one chance for glory against a possibly hobbled Top 4 player in the world. Putting money on an old jalopy to make a Grand Slam Semifinal? INSANE!

    This is stupid. I am stupid. You are stupid for following me, but I'm doing it anyway.
  • koscheckbaby
    SBR MVP
    • 04-05-10
    • 1314

    #2
    It's funny that I just asked you in your thread why Murray was such a huge favorite. I was willing to back Murray at say a price of -500. But at -800, it just seems like value in Chela. Chela's done real well on the clay this year. And we've seen Murray is capable of bad losses.
    Comment
    • EaglesPhan36
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 12-06-06
      • 71662

      #3
      I had been thinking about this all day. Literally had this sort of write-up sitting in my head all day. Had looked for any reason not to give it a go. Couldn't find one. Again, Chela is likely going to get beat here. I mean that makes sense, right?
      Comment
      • koscheckbaby
        SBR MVP
        • 04-05-10
        • 1314

        #4
        It's a value play. You know he's likely to lose, but the price is still worth a shot. Makes sense to me.

        It'd be an even better bet if you get on a book that counts retirement though, so if Murray retires because of the ankle, you win.
        Comment
        • nulldah
          SBR MVP
          • 01-27-10
          • 1473

          #5
          the books should just replace the bet with:

          will murray ankle snap?
          yes - +540
          no - -775

          respect to murray though for not doing any retirement. hopefully it wont hurt his future..
          Comment
          • HKT
            SBR High Roller
            • 05-11-11
            • 111

            #6
            bwin pays out for retirement. I've been tooled twice on retirements, it's payback time!
            Comment
            • tankman777
              SBR Sharp
              • 04-03-10
              • 330

              #7
              i'm on juan ignacio chela myself
              Comment
              • RealMadrid
                SBR MVP
                • 09-06-10
                • 1354

                #8
                i'm on Chela +1.5 sets @ 3.09
                Comment
                • EaglesPhan36
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 12-06-06
                  • 71662

                  #9
                  I enlisted this fine being to put the hex on Murray's ankle.
                  Comment
                  • EaglesPhan36
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 12-06-06
                    • 71662

                    #10
                    Got the hot start needed for Chela. Needs to close the 1st set out keeping it on-serve.
                    Comment
                    • EaglesPhan36
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 12-06-06
                      • 71662

                      #11
                      Or not.
                      Comment
                      • Glitch
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 07-08-09
                        • 11795

                        #12
                        chela up a break....on this also. always gives more confidence to see youre on the same crazy pick. lets do it
                        Comment
                        • beefcake
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 11-26-09
                          • 14029

                          #13
                          Took chela for points!!! Looks like he had chances and now its even
                          Comment
                          • EaglesPhan36
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 12-06-06
                            • 71662

                            #14
                            Back to the only chance being Murray's ankle snapping like a twig.


                            JIC blew a 4-1 lead in this set. Almost 100% certain that Murray closes this set out at 7-5 when Chela chokes on his next service game. Old Car!
                            Comment
                            • EaglesPhan36
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 12-06-06
                              • 71662

                              #15
                              Expecting Murray to cruise here now unless he aggravates the ankle. El Torino had the 1st set to take and make this a match, but blew it.
                              Comment
                              • alon7777777
                                SBR MVP
                                • 05-11-10
                                • 1864

                                #16
                                wow Chela sucks it looks like he got a bad ankle
                                Comment
                                • EaglesPhan36
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 12-06-06
                                  • 71662

                                  #17
                                  Without a quick start, this was going to be a straight sets match barring Murray cracking that ankle - those were my thoughts. But the quick start was there, Chela just did not finish it. Chela isn't the type who is going to fukk around and try to work a dramatic comeback against a better player IMO. He played four hours vs. Falla the other day and was fortunate to work through that one. Fatigue will play into it, but if he had been able to close the opening set - I think adrenaline would have kicked in some for him and belief that he had a shot in hell today. Still, Murray is not dominant on-serve, so he could like JIC back into this set .. but unlikely now IMO. Was worth the roll at big odds still for me.
                                  Comment
                                  • yisman
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 09-01-08
                                    • 75682

                                    #18
                                    This sucks. I took Chela first set at BetJam because the price was advantageous. I see he's up 5-4 and serving and I thought I was in good shape.
                                    [quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
                                    [/quote]

                                    [quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]
                                    Comment
                                    • noober
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 10-23-09
                                      • 2012

                                      #19
                                      he had 15:40 at 5-3
                                      Comment
                                      • beefcake
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 11-26-09
                                        • 14029

                                        #20
                                        One more break and were in business..
                                        Comment
                                        • shari91
                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                          • 02-23-10
                                          • 32661

                                          #21
                                          I need him to break here to give my over a shot. If he loses this set right now I fear I'm hooped.
                                          Comment
                                          • shari91
                                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                            • 02-23-10
                                            • 32661

                                            #22
                                            Yesssssssssssssss!!!

                                            COME ON CHELA!!!!
                                            Comment
                                            • beefcake
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 11-26-09
                                              • 14029

                                              #23
                                              Fukk yeah...Shot in hell restored..
                                              Comment
                                              • EaglesPhan36
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 12-06-06
                                                • 71662

                                                #24
                                                I knew Murray would give him a chance to get back into it, did not know if JIC could take it though. Good god Old Car, hold your damn serve!
                                                Comment
                                                • EaglesPhan36
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 12-06-06
                                                  • 71662

                                                  #25
                                                  Typical.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • shari91
                                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                    • 02-23-10
                                                    • 32661

                                                    #26
                                                    omfg this guy's a bloody trainwreck
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Hall2Collie
                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                      • 01-03-11
                                                      • 462

                                                      #27
                                                      Chela's serve is useless

                                                      It's almost not even worth celebrating when he breaks Murray

                                                      Also I don't buy the reports on Murray's ankle... he is running around like normal for 90% of these points

                                                      He only shows that it is bothering him on lost points
                                                      Comment
                                                      • EaglesPhan36
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 12-06-06
                                                        • 71662

                                                        #28
                                                        What was the handicap on this bitch? +8.5 or 9?
                                                        Comment
                                                        • yisman
                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                          • 09-01-08
                                                          • 75682

                                                          #29
                                                          It was at 7 or 6.5
                                                          [quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
                                                          [/quote]

                                                          [quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]
                                                          Comment
                                                          • yisman
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 09-01-08
                                                            • 75682

                                                            #30
                                                            winner must win 3 sets for actionWed 6/1 127 Andy Murray
                                                            -3000 9:30AM 128 Juan Ignacio Chela +1500

                                                            1/30 on murray is not bad here.
                                                            [quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
                                                            [/quote]

                                                            [quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]
                                                            Comment
                                                            • yisman
                                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                                              • 09-01-08
                                                              • 75682

                                                              #31
                                                              This was Chela's best chance at a grand slam semis, and he's blowing it.

                                                              Down two sets and a break now.
                                                              [quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
                                                              [/quote]

                                                              [quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]
                                                              Comment
                                                              • EaglesPhan36
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 12-06-06
                                                                • 71662

                                                                #32
                                                                Only 7? I don't even understand how they set handicaps in tennis. Federer is +5.5 against Djokovic at +225 now. Chela was more than double the price, but only an extra 1.5 games on the handicap? That's why I'm not an oddsmaker.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • yisman
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 09-01-08
                                                                  • 75682

                                                                  #33
                                                                  I think once it gets to 6 or so the games get tight, meaning the linesmakers are hesitant to move them that much. There's a bigger exchange rate (ml/games) the higher you go.

                                                                  That's because it's pretty difficult to win by 9 games or whatever.


                                                                  Who would bet Murray -9? He'd have to do better than 6-3 6-3 6-3

                                                                  I wouldn't want to be betting that.
                                                                  [quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
                                                                  [/quote]

                                                                  [quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • EaglesPhan36
                                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                                    • 12-06-06
                                                                    • 71662

                                                                    #34
                                                                    No I see your point. But I think with a massive favorite's tag of -755 that the handicap should have been at least 7.5 or 8. But that's me because I would have taken the handicap. Never saw it because the ML was the only thing posted when I was looking yesterday and never went back to check.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • shari91
                                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                      • 02-23-10
                                                                      • 32661

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by EaglesPhan36
                                                                      Only 7? I don't even understand how they set handicaps in tennis. Federer is +5.5 against Djokovic at +225 now. Chela was more than double the price, but only an extra 1.5 games on the handicap? That's why I'm not an oddsmaker.
                                                                      He was 6.5 here. Too bloody low for me when a guy is sitting at +550. I can get that on ugly women dogs in 2 sets.
                                                                      Comment
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