U.S. Open Draw Discussion

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-26-10, 02:20 PM

My one thought quickly looking over the four men's quarters - watch out for Andy Roddick. Ridicule it, but he's got a superb draw to make a QF run if his fitness allows. Djokovic has a tougher draw down on the bottom portion there with Baghdatis and Fish. Fish & Baghdatis also will offer good odds I think in futures in this quarter.

**JNic** · 08-26-10, 02:38 PM

it looks like nalbandian or gulbis will make the quarters of section 2

section 4 berdych looks so good, Youzhny has to get by Golubev and Malisse and that won't be easy, Isner is hurt and Stepanek is very untrustable.

Soderling should come out on top of section 7

but you're right about Roddick, he has a nice draw but I think Davydenko will beat him

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-26-10, 04:48 PM

Have to say even though Nadal's summer and past US Open track record don't always inspire confidence, he has a solid draw to the semis. A few toughies potentially for a QF match-up, but endurance-fitness wise there aren't too many guys in this bracket who match-up with Rafa in a best of 5 on this surface even if it's not his best.

**Stacocakes** · 08-26-10, 05:19 PM

Have to agree with rafa here. See some odds right now of +370 for Nadal to win the US Open and I am liking it alot. Something that really makes me laugh is Mardy Fish's name as the 9th guy oddswise to win the open. Fish has a couple easy rounds to start the tournament off but there is no way in hell Mardy Fish will win a grandslam. People are jumping on the Fish train because of the last couple of weeks much like everyone jumped on Gulbis when he was doing good right before the French Open. We all know how that ended up.

**JNic** · 08-26-10, 06:16 PM

marchenko/cilic and ferrer/dolgopolov looks intriguing. both of these Ukrainians heavy chance to win.

also something to look out for, Andrey Golubev has one of the best kick serves in the game, the kicker to youzhny's one handed backhand out wide is going to be lethal. i haven't seen the odds but i strongly disagree with backing youzhny here

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-26-10, 06:54 PM

1st rounders I am curious to see lines for: Stepanek-Benneteau, Hewitt-Mathieu.

**JNic** · 08-26-10, 07:32 PM

benneteau will surely be like -150 range imo, because stepanek hasn't shown he has the stamina yet and making this deep run at pilot pen will only hurt him

**portnoy65** · 08-27-10, 07:40 AM

Rafa will be winner!!!

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-27-10, 08:10 AM

Originally posted by JNic

benneteau will surely be like -150 range imo, because stepanek hasn't shown he has the stamina yet and making this deep run at pilot pen will only hurt him

That would be perfectly suitable to me backing Benneteau.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 08-27-10, 08:53 AM

Worth taking Berdy as a trading position early in slams lately.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-27-10, 09:37 AM

Seeded players who I think very well could lose early if they face a good qualifer: Ljubicic, Fernando Gonzalez & Monfils.

**Goat Milk** · 08-27-10, 03:03 PM

There are MAYBE 2 guys in Nadal's draw that can beat him if they play the best tennis of their lives

Time to go to the drawing board

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-27-10, 03:27 PM

WTA draw which I pay far less attention to, but this is what I see at first glance:

#1. Wozniacki will not make the semis. Draw is too tough and laden with experience and Russian land mines.

#2. Jankovic got a fortunate draw, but will still crap out. Zvonareva, Petrova and Radwanska are probably the best players in this quarter and all stuck in the same portion of the draw. Wickmayer might come out of the top against perhaps Zvonareva who has less to do to go far in this draw but doesn't have a good track record here.

#3. With Serena out, Venus COULD steal the spotlight. Her draw is fairly simple especially in light of Pennetta withdrawing from New Haven. Top portion belongs to either Pavlyuchenkova or Azarenka IMO.

#4. If Clijsters doesn't make the semis, she might consider re-retiring. An EZ bake oven draw. Bartoli is her only legit threat in the bottom and she pounded her in Cincy. Up top, out-of-form Stosur and shaky Dementieva? Clijsters is the favorite to win it all and is a solid future even at a reduced price IMO.

Sharapova, Petrova, Venus, Clijsters

Really outside of Clijsters, I don't think any of the quarters should be surprising to see any number of names potentially advance. Should be some superb prices with as wide open as this will be.

**ji03** · 08-27-10, 03:35 PM

I'd like to see another Querrey-Murray matchup at the US Open.

**Goat Milk** · 08-27-10, 03:37 PM

I don't see Clijsters having any chance to win it this year. She has been hitting the ball well lately, but I think once she gets deeper into the tournament her fitness is going to kill her especially if she plays a lot of 3 setters early on. She doesn't look as conditioned as she was last year. Predicting a semi's exit for Kim.

Sharapova looks solid.

This could be a great chance for Venus. but what has she been doing for the past 2 months? I watched her play a couple doubles matches but not sure if those were reruns of something, I'm too lazy to check right now. All she really had going was the serve.

I don't see the same heart in Venus anymore that she used to have. If she's down a set in the semi's or something she doesn't even battle back anymore like Serena would, but maybe things will change now that the spotlight shifts back to the older sis.

**JNic** · 08-27-10, 10:35 PM

Montanes is -230 to beat Przysienzy. that line is terrible.. if annyone has watched montanes on hardcourts, it's bad and the big serve and forehand of przysienzy will surely make him a great dog at +200.

**guloo** · 08-27-10, 10:39 PM

this time Rfay will win

**Dr.Gonzo** · 08-27-10, 10:40 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

My one thought quickly looking over the four men's quarters - watch out for Andy Roddick. Ridicule it, but he's got a superb draw to make a QF run if his fitness allows. Djokovic has a tougher draw down on the bottom portion there with Baghdatis and Fish. Fish & Baghdatis also will offer good odds I think in futures in this quarter.

Mofils 3rd round. Will run into Davy or Belluci in the 4th. Pea Heart will be lucky to make make it up to Djoker or the player that knocks him off. Then will be rolled there for sure.

**JNic** · 08-27-10, 10:40 PM

Marchenko is +420 vs Cilic.... this line is unbelievable. must be because the public will be all over Cilic here but I thought bookies learned when Troicki took Cilic down at +350 that he's way too overrated. Marchenko should be +300ish imo

**Dr.Gonzo** · 08-27-10, 10:43 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

There are MAYBE 2 guys in Nadal's draw that can beat him if they play the best tennis of their lives

Time to go to the drawing board

Murray is going to smoke him in the semis so it is irrelevant.

**shari91** · 08-27-10, 11:03 PM

I would love to see Kim win it but I don't think she has the drive anymore. I wish I'd thought to record an interview she did with an Aussie sports program a few weeks ago because I can't find it online anywhere. She was talking about how her main reason for playing now is because she knows she has a talent that other people could only dream about and she felt like a spoiled brat not using it anymore just because she was financially set when she retired. Then she went into the whole thing about how since having her daughter, losses don't bother her since she's realized they mean nothing in the scheme of life.

Not really sounding like she's the most motivated person around anymore. I think if Venus wanted to capitalize on Serena being out and make one last run at a Grand Slam she could win the whole thing but I'm with Goat - I haven't seen anything from her lately to make me think she could give a rats ass either.

**fsfalcons** · 08-27-10, 11:08 PM

fish wins the mens draw fer sure

**Ace_of_Spades** · 08-27-10, 11:10 PM

Whats Federers form like these days?

**sanchez985** · 08-27-10, 11:12 PM

I think federer will win and show that he is still alive.

**Fthenorm** · 08-27-10, 11:45 PM

Clijsters will not win back to back

**Ace_of_Spades** · 08-27-10, 11:47 PM

odds of 3+ ain't bad for Federer.

**Unicorn7** · 08-27-10, 11:54 PM

Great idea with this thread Sir. Too bad I cant remember seeing any contest on this tourney here

You held a great contest not too long ago your self Sir-

Have a great weekend-U7

**Michigan** · 08-28-10, 12:17 AM

I think Roddick has a great shot at winning this tourny. It is worth throwing a few bucks on him at 23-1.

**EmpireMaker** · 08-28-10, 12:26 AM

Don't like Venus, Clisters lacks killer instinct deep in tournies, might be a good time for Petrova ???

**ionutm1984** · 08-28-10, 12:37 AM

Rafa deffinetly will win this one

**shari91** · 08-28-10, 12:48 AM

Originally posted by Unicorn7

Great idea with this thread Sir. Too bad I cant remember seeing any contest on this tourney here You held a great contest not too long ago your self Sir- Have a great weekend-U7

I'll be running a contest for both the women and the men starting with the quarter-finals. Have been waiting a couple of days to hear back from Lou to see if SBR is going to donate points. If I don't hear anything by the end of tonight (my time here in Australia), I'm just going to set it up and posters will have to pay an entry fee.

**CindyCryBaby** · 08-28-10, 01:37 AM

Originally posted by shari91

I'll be running a contest for both the women and the men starting with the quarter-finals. Have been waiting a couple of days to hear back from Lou to see if SBR is going to donate points. If I don't hear anything by the end of tonight (my time here in Australia), I'm just going to set it up and posters will have to pay an entry fee.

should be fun

thanks for being willing to set it up

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 08-28-10, 05:24 AM

Originally posted by JNic

Montanes is -230 to beat Przysienzy. that line is terrible.. if annyone has watched montanes on hardcourts, it's bad and the big serve and forehand of przysienzy will surely make him a great dog at +200.

Yeah, Montanes is useless on fast hard courts. He can just about produce competence on the grittiest dog-slow courts (eg Auckland this year), but US Open, and in particularly hot weather?

Only real downside is przyienzy has had a few injury probs lately.

**jjgold** · 08-28-10, 06:14 AM

Womens tennis is like 15 deep now, no stars at all

Men's side I woukld say maybe 6 guys can win

No such think as a Cinderella in these tourneys