Tennis favorites NEVER have value

**nulldah** · 08-06-10, 12:57 AM

great advice

and yes, you're the same guy that told us this

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http://forum.sbrforum.com/tennis-handicapping/499973-take-federer-tomorrow-win-dime-thank-me-later.html

Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.

**noober** · 08-06-10, 03:12 AM

well, taking dogs all the time doesn't have value either.

**Daveyboy** · 08-06-10, 03:37 AM

So let me get this straight, lumping $10k on a tennis favourite at -150 has no value? Winning $6k+ from that bet has no value?

What you should have said, there's no value in backing Andy Roddick at the moment because he's not himself and has lost 4 or so matches in the past month or so to players he should be beating. ie STAY AWAY FROM RODDICK!!

**dondaca** · 08-06-10, 03:53 AM

Tennis is just for live trading

**noober** · 08-06-10, 03:56 AM

You cannot judge a match just by the odds. there are tons of matches with odds of 1.5 with value and there are ton of matches with odds of 3 with values.

**Daveyboy** · 08-06-10, 04:33 AM

Originally posted by noober

You cannot judge a match just by the odds. there are tons of matches with odds of 1.5 with value and there are ton of matches with odds of 3 with values.

I couldn't put it better myself

**Tsonga** · 08-06-10, 07:12 AM

Originally posted by nulldah

great advice

and yes, you're the same guy that told us this

SBR Forum - Sports Betting Talk - Sportsbook Review Forum

http://forum.sbrforum.com/tennis-handicapping/499973-take-federer-tomorrow-win-dime-thank-me-later.html

Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.

sounds like someone had a lot on roddick.

**shari91** · 08-06-10, 07:21 AM

Originally posted by noober

You cannot judge a match just by the odds. there are tons of matches with odds of 1.5 with value and there are ton of matches with odds of 3 with values.

Yep and you just have to determine your comfort level with chalk and how to find value in those lines. I hate risking 2x to win 1x but if everything points to it being the right play, then you need to make it if you're willing to absorb the risk. But laying a big chunk to win $0.04 on the dollar is something I'll never encourage, no matter who is playing. Too many other plays out there to make instead of one like that.

**bruceBRUCEbruce** · 08-06-10, 07:57 AM

Originally posted by Cappinpicks

I could bet a -200 fav in MLB for any situation and feel confident..

you know how I know that you're not a sharp? ^^^

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 08-06-10, 08:08 AM

Longterm, tennis odds at pretty much any price have the same return. There are slight variances, but there's nothing really wrong with heavy favs, they win at the rate the odds show.

For -200 you'd expect about 66% strike rate. Take -166 to -250 over 6 years, they've won 2831/4297 (66%), returning -1.6% if you bet them all at pinnacle. That's exactly pinnacle's juice, so whatever system they use is dead on target ........ as an average.

**Cappinpicks** · 08-06-10, 09:49 AM

If I picked a -1000 fav in MLB I would never lose, in tennis I have lost about 4-5 of them the times I do bet tennis.

**jojo85** · 08-06-10, 10:22 AM

Then you should put all of your money on -1000 MLB favs and not bet tennis.

**Cappinpicks** · 08-06-10, 10:38 AM

Originally posted by jojo85

Then you should put all of your money on -1000 MLB favs and not bet tennis.

There aren't any favs in MLB over -400 ever... that's what I don't understand.. since in tennis there are more upsets

**Tsonga** · 08-06-10, 11:40 AM

Originally posted by Cappinpicks

There aren't any favs in MLB over -400 ever... that's what I don't understand.. since in tennis there are more upsets

bet live and you can get a -4000 fav in baseball...but you could still lose. there are no guarantees.

**cheesehead004** · 08-06-10, 03:31 PM

lol -300s consistently lose in beisbol

**goblue12** · 08-07-10, 07:14 PM

I'd say there is pretty good value in getting -188 on a player when the line is is -208/+190 at Pinnacle.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 08-07-10, 07:40 PM

Originally posted by Cappinpicks

If I picked a -1000 fav in MLB I would never lose, in tennis I have lost about 4-5 of them the times I do bet tennis.

If -1000 never lost on mlb, the books wouldn't offer it :-) Massive tennis favs at that lev are actually slightly underrated by the books .....

2004+, atp/masters/slams, -666 to -2000
1681 wins from 1844, 91.1% strike rate
yield +0.7% at pinnacle

**Fthenorm** · 08-07-10, 08:02 PM

Never is certainly an incorrect statement..Value in favorites is often tougher to spot, but definitely exists

**Robber** · 08-07-10, 08:12 PM

you obviously dont know how to pick the right faves

some have value

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 08-08-10, 08:35 AM

"Picking heavy favs" is more about understanding who is consistent, and avoiding them when danger signs popup: new coach? personal issues? played too much lately?

I tend to avoid heavy favs because by the time players have a long enough career to give you decent evidence of their consistency, they're starting to get more minor niggles, perhaps stagnating, occasionally tanking, maybe getting married etc etc.

**BiePoker** · 08-08-10, 08:53 AM

the question raises if Nalbandian worth 1.35 (-300) for the final in Washington?

**bruceBRUCEbruce** · 08-08-10, 09:31 AM

Originally posted by HeeeHAWWWW

they're starting to get more minor niggles,

well done.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 08-08-10, 04:22 PM

Uhh, does that mean something else in the US? I don't get it.

**ringemup** · 08-08-10, 08:53 PM

Originally posted by Cappinpicks

I could bet a -200 fav in MLB for any situation and feel confident.. in tennis a -500 favorite can tank at any time like roddick. pretty much a joke

haha -200 in baseball is no given pal who r u kiddin u bet the wrong dog in tennis n u r screwed.