Cindy's Tennis Picks

**CindyCryBaby** · 08-16-10, 11:39 PM

Originally posted by CindyCryBaby

Devvarman over Ginepri (+143) for 1u

Another unfortunate one...+143 definitely was too high obviously and Devvarman could have won this one. Once it went to the 3rd set it was clear Ginepri would finish it off though. Better luck for tomorrow's card.

**CindyCryBaby** · 08-17-10, 01:34 AM

Tuesday - adding to the Llodra over Benneteau bet from few posts ago

Young over Gulbis (+418) - 1u

Blake over Istomin (-120) - 2u

Dulko over Szavay (+118) - 2u

The line seems a bit fishy with Szavay being favored despite being 0-3 against Dulko and not having played on hard courts in a while, but szavay herself tweeted that shes out of form and will have a hard time adjusting to the fast hard courts without a match in so long. She said she wanted to start off in the qualies to get a few matches under her belt but could not. I absolutely love fading the first match from clay to hard court - it has been a very very successful angle for me in the past that has led to good $$$. I laid off of a bet today bc of a fishy line (Safina being a dog...) and it cost me. Let's hope this line is simply wrong, and not a sign of things to come

GL to all.

Will probably have a few more on the card later

**limitation** · 08-17-10, 01:46 AM

Like Young and Dulko pick. May I ask why you picking Blake over Istomin? Blake has been very inconsistent all year and I am not even sure what kind of form he will show up against Istomin. Seems risky in my opinions.

**CindyCryBaby** · 08-17-10, 02:00 AM

Originally posted by limitation

Like Young and Dulko pick. May I ask why you picking Blake over Istomin? Blake has been very inconsistent all year and I am not even sure what kind of form he will show up against Istomin. Seems risky in my opinions.

Yeah, you have a good reason - Blake has recently shown to be good fade material and I know a lot of people here don't like to put money on Blake bc of how inconsistent he is, but I think this seems to be a good spot for a couple of reasons: for one, Istomin does not move very well on hard courts and although Blake is the least patient player on the planet he should force Istomin to reach and go for lines to compromise for his movement and I think (and hope) that James will be very focused this week since he loves the Cincinnati tournament and knows it is key to his U.S. open success.

Won't regret the bet bc of those reasons - may regret making a 2u on Blake though

**Yezzir** · 08-17-10, 02:12 AM

Blake will win.

**limitation** · 08-17-10, 02:12 AM

Want to get your opinions on a few more underdogs, if you don't mind. I am looking at Alejandro Falla +268 against Gael Monfils (who is having injury problems most of the times). Also looking at Ivan Ljubicic +318 against David Nalbandian (just for the fact that big Dave has been playing too many matches and shown a little bit of fatigue in his last match). Any thoughts on those two underdogs? By the way, you definitely has better odd (about 3-5 cents) on your picks compared to my book.

**CindyCryBaby** · 08-17-10, 02:34 AM

Originally posted by limitation

Want to get your opinions on a few more underdogs, if you don't mind. I am looking at Alejandro Falla +268 against Gael Monfils (who is having injury problems most of the times). Also looking at Ivan Ljubicic +318 against David Nalbandian (just for the fact that big Dave has been playing too many matches and shown a little bit of fatigue in his last match). Any thoughts on those two underdogs? By the way, you definitely has better odd (about 3-5 cents) on your picks compared to my book.

Don't mind at all. Monfils' shoulder injury does concern me quite a bit. He was getting only 80% of his normal velocity after injuring it in the third set against Murray, and at times looked like he was just pushing it. At the same time, Falla looked horrid last week vs Chela (losing me money); Monfils' injury issue combined with his lack of focus early in tournaments does give Falla some value here. Ultimately, I think Monfils speed will force falla into too many errors, but there is definitely some value although I see Monfils coming out with it. I think/hope the over/under line will be around 20 or 20.5 games and betting the over may be a good idea and will probably be taking it myself in the morning.

As for Nalby, people keep saying he is going to run out of gas soon and questioning how much motivation he has after already exceeding expectations in his comeback bid. But one very important thing they are forgetting is that hes trying to make that final push for a US Open seed. He's currently ranked 37th or so, and will need to win a match or two here to get into the top 32. This is also Ljuby's first hard court matches in 5 months (since miami earlier in the year), and should struggle adjusting to the speed of the courts here in Cincy - as I said with the Dulko write-up, fading this angle is one of my favorites. I think Nalby will get enough returns in play and move ljubicic around, similar to Soderling last week, enough to get it done - I think Nalby will win nearly 70-80% of the rallies here.

**limitation** · 08-17-10, 03:05 AM

Thanks Cindy, for your opinions.

**CindyCryBaby** · 08-17-10, 12:26 PM

Going to stop calling Blake inconsistent and just call him done with... If he cannot beat, let alone compete with, Istomin on hard courts...

**limitation** · 08-17-10, 12:28 PM

Tough loss on Blake. I hope he retires so people can stop losing money on him. I don't have any money on him but feel bad for you.

**CindyCryBaby** · 08-17-10, 12:34 PM

It's OK - a bad tennis week was bound to happen after my week last week. I was unable to watch the Monfils match though - I hope you took Falla. Just lost me some very small money on a future.

**CindyCryBaby** · 08-17-10, 12:38 PM

Lol and it looks like a fix is on for the Llodra - Benneteau match. The line goes from -120 to -110 to +180 for Llodra, then drops back to -113 and now is offline. Let's hope the fix is on for Llodra

**limitation** · 08-17-10, 12:40 PM

Haha, actually I didn't pull the trigger on Falla. But it's okay. Kind of scared to pull the trigger on Young too even though I really like him at this price. So far the only action I have is round robin parlay of Fish, Baggy, and Kohlschreiber. I see you have Young +418. Do you think he will be able to beat Gulbis? Wouldn't it be better if you take spread +4.5 just to be a little safe? I really like Young pick but still thinking about it.

**CindyCryBaby** · 08-17-10, 12:43 PM

Llodra now at -130. 100 point movement before match begins - the fix is on.

Will be posting some more plays in a second

**CindyCryBaby** · 08-17-10, 12:54 PM

Nalbandian to win 2-0 against Ljubicic (-139) - 1u

Parlay: Nalbandian over Ljubicic (-303) and Baghdatis over Bellucci (-199) - 1u

Hewitt / Lu over 22.5 (-105) - 1u

**CindyCryBaby** · 08-17-10, 12:58 PM

Originally posted by limitation

Haha, actually I didn't pull the trigger on Falla. But it's okay. Kind of scared to pull the trigger on Young too even though I really like him at this price. So far the only action I have is round robin parlay of Fish, Baggy, and Kohlschreiber. I see you have Young +418. Do you think he will be able to beat Gulbis? Wouldn't it be better if you take spread +4.5 just to be a little safe? I really like Young pick but still thinking about it.

Spread wasn't out yet when I made the bet, but I definitely think that has a shot. I just think the line is off and it's a big value play. Only have to win a few of them long-term to profit. Just haven't been hitting any, losing some 3-setters, this week!! Maybe it's the curse of the thread

**limitation** · 08-17-10, 01:01 PM

Talent wise Gulbis is better than Young. But you are right now it's a value bet and there are always underdogs winning in almost every rounds.

**CindyCryBaby** · 08-17-10, 01:44 PM

What an awful few days...what is going on with Dulko? She gets broken and Szavay to serve for set, then Dulko breaks her back then she double faults her next service game away. 9 double faults! Sigh, wta.

**limitation** · 08-17-10, 01:46 PM

Yea, it seems like a lot of people are having bad time with tennis today. You bet on favorites and underdogs won. You bet on underdogs and favorites won. Just one of those days where you get more wrongs than rights.

**ochenta y cinco** · 08-17-10, 01:50 PM

Staying away from the Nalbandian/Ljubicic matchup. But I'm also on the Hewitt/Lu Over 22.5, hoping for a a 3-setter there!

BOL.

**limitation** · 08-17-10, 04:22 PM

Tough day for you. Hopefully, your night plays will come through. Good luck!

**CindyCryBaby** · 08-17-10, 06:08 PM

Originally posted by limitation

Tough day for you. Hopefully, your night plays will come through. Good luck!

Thanks for the luck limitation! I will be fine...unfortunate I have not posted my plays last few weeks. This two day downswing is just some due karma.

**CindyCryBaby** · 08-17-10, 06:11 PM

Just made two bets for tomorrow already:

Querrey over Ferrer (-116) - 4u

De Bakker over Roddick (+311) - 2u

I made these bets bc I see both of these lines dropping. I would not be surprised of De Bakker dropped by one hundred points. I recommend betting him now for this insane value - line should not be here. This line will drop 100 points and you can sell out and cash easy most likely.

Gl to all!

**limitation** · 08-17-10, 06:49 PM

I wish I can bet those Cindy. But, my book (5dimes) doesn't have any lines up yet. You have good book.

**CindyCryBaby** · 08-17-10, 07:26 PM

Originally posted by CindyCryBaby

Llodra over Benneteau (-119) - 1.5u

Young over Gulbis (+418) - 1u

Blake over Istomin (-120) - 2u

Dulko over Szavay (+118) - 2u

Originally posted by CindyCryBaby

Nalbandian to win 2-0 against Ljubicic (-139) - 1u

Parlay: Nalbandian over Ljubicic (-303) and Baghdatis over Bellucci (-199) - 1u

Hewitt / Lu over 22.5 (-105) - 1u PUSH

-5 u on the day. Also had a 2 unit parlay with Nalba and the Cardinals I didn't post. Hopefully the Cardinals can win to get some units back.

**limitation** · 08-17-10, 07:52 PM

Haha, Jankovic ruined my 7 teams parlay. Everyone won except her in my parlay. It's a very small money so not a big deal. But, still funny how she has been tanking matches as of lately.

**CindyCryBaby** · 08-18-10, 12:06 AM

Wednesday

3u parlay: Wawrinka over Benneteau (-183) and Wozniacki over Schnyder (-533)

1u on Chardy over Murray (+629)

and for pure fun...

1/3u Parlay: Istomin over Federer (+632) and Chardy over Murray (+629)

**CindyCryBaby** · 08-18-10, 02:09 AM

Nalbandian over Isner (-167) - 2u

Berrer over Gasquet (+173) - 1u

Gulbis over Melzer (-112) - 1u

Safina over Petrova (+109.5) - 1u

Zheng over Rezai (+127.5) - 1u

Bhupathi / Mirnyi over Isner / Querrey (+106) - 2u

Bhupathi/Mirnyi have much much more doubles experience while Querrey / Isner have just had average results this year. Bhup/Mirnyi have already crushed Querrey/Isner on fast hard courts once before. Both will have played singles matches earlier (with hopefully Querrey winning and Isner losing

) - both matches should be tough and motivation and fatigue will be a factor.

Also, I expect the Nalbandian - Isner matchup to play similarly to the Nalba - Ljubicic one today where Ljubicic was just killing his serve during the first set. It will be a little tougher on Nalba because Isner moves better but I expect Nalba to come through - I love the way he his hitting his groundstrokes. You can tell he is just in the zone currently and I've made great money past few weeks on this money train.

As for Gulbis, his entire body of work on hard courts is just a lot better than Melzers. Hope he can keep his head together and he should be fine.

Berrer pick is a fade of Gasquet at value - I watched the Youzhny match and he didn't do anything great to deserve it with Youzhny completely tanking the 3rd set.

**WIZARDOFBEANTOWN** · 08-18-10, 06:59 AM

i like the picks i'm on berrer 2 and nalba good luck today

**CindyCryBaby** · 08-18-10, 11:43 PM

hmm...wta bets brought me some units and the men killed me today? Sigh - this week has just been crazy.

Tomorrow will be playing Ferrer and Djokovic. Will probably also play those two with Fish in a 3 person parlay.

**CindyCryBaby** · 08-19-10, 03:34 AM

on mobile so just quickly, made the above plays and plays on safina, kuzie, and soderling

played overs on li/azarenka and murray/gulbis as well as small on benneteau +5.5 and even smaller on him ml

**nicsbr** · 08-19-10, 09:46 AM

gl x

**CindyCryBaby** · 08-19-10, 12:52 PM

great start to the day. huge huge bet on gulbis/murray over looks to be good. cross fingers that no retirements happen

had 6.75 units on this over. had 2units on azarenka/li over and that lost. hopefully kuzie can close this set out

**CindyCryBaby** · 08-19-10, 02:10 PM

Kuzzie

Let's hope Djokovic doesn't blow up...

**CindyCryBaby** · 08-19-10, 02:31 PM

Yes! Thank you Djokovic! How is this guy going to play 5 setters at the US Open???

3-1 on the day so far with djokovic (5u), kuzzi (1u), and murray/gulbis over (6.75u) cashing and the li/azarenka over (2u) losing

1.5u parlay which pays out a nice 6.75u all depends on Ferrer now with Fish/Djok winning. Have a few more plays posted few above. Great start to day - could be a giant day!