The French Open is coming very soon so I am doing an analysis on the women. I know the draw is still not out and that’s something that will affect the outright prices but it doesn’t hurt to do some preparation in advance. Knowing which players are currently overvalued or undervalued will definitely help your picks once the draw is out.
Overvalued Players
Dinara Safina – Ever since the injury, she is a completely different player. She currently has no believe in her own capabilities and lost ton of matches to low ranked players. In addition, she is mentally very weak and prone to breakdowns. Since the Australian Open she has played only four matches – a win over Szavay, and losses to Peer, Dulgheru and … Zakopalova – a player ranked 78 in the world with little potential to go any higher. I was able to watch two of those matches and was stunned by the amount of unforced errors Dinara was making. If you are to place a bet on her to win the French, the best place would be Betfair at odds of 36.15 (5% commission included). However, I would not recommend it because I doubt there will be any hedge opportunities with her. Depending on the draw, third round loss seems most likely.
Aravane Rezai –She played amazing last week and was able to defeat top players, such as Jankovic, Henin, and Venus Williams, but she is extremely inconsistent. She hits the ball very hard, and if she has an off day she may lose to an average player. And in a tournament which lasts two weeks, this is very likely to happen. Her best performance, before winning Madrid, was the title in Bali at the end of last year. Since then, she had inconsistent results including losses to inferior players – Petra Martic, Angelique Kerber, two losses to Malek, and two losses to Petkovic. Currently, the best place to bet on her would be on Pinnacle at odds of 21.45. But I wouldn’t be surprised if she loses before the round of 16, as there are some good counterpunchers whose game fit well against Rezai’s.
Justine Henin – I think she is the most likely winner of the French Open, but given the current odds of 3.25 (Pinnacle) she is extremely overvalued. Since her recent comeback, she has lost twice as a huge favorite – 1.03 to Dulko and 1.12 to Rezai. All of her other losses were to top players, but it’s important to note that she has played a lot of three setters. It is very likely that she will lose the first set in one of her matches at the French Open in which case you can get her to win the match (not the whole tournament) at odds around 3.25. So my advice will be to stay away from her at that price, even though she will most likely win it.
Undervalued Players
Martinez-Sanchez – Currently, the odds for her to win it all are highest at Pinnacle – 41. The price definitely provides some value, but I wouldn’t take her before the draw is out. The reason for that is her specific game, which matches very well to some styles, while it doesn’t cope very well with others. Martinez-Sanchez is probably the only player (along with Sam Stosur) who likes to rush the net and rely heavily on drop shots. She tries to break her opponent’s game and that works very well against the youngsters, who usually rely on groudstrokes. Martinez-Sanchez has done very well against Wozniacki, Azarenka, and other mindless ball bashers .However, I wouldn’t be happy to see Martinez-Sanchez facing some of the experienced players, such as the Williams’s sisters or Samanta Stosur. They are able to neutralize her lefty serve very effectively – one of her best weapons.
Yanina Wickmayer –a future top 3 player in my opinion. She has all the weapons to achieve that goal and will win many Grand Slams in the future, given she stays healthy. She is equally good on both sides (maybe her backhand is slightly better), moves very well, has powerful serve, and most importantly – competes extremely well. I can see her winning against all of the current top players, with the exception of Justine Henin. Being from Belgium, Henin was her idol as a child and it’s not easy playing your idols. Yet, she has pushed Henin on couple occasions, including a three setter at the Australian Open. Wickmayer may not win it all, but with a good draw I see her getting to the semifinals, which will provide very good hedge opportunities. You can get her at 36.7 (Pinnacle).
Alona Bondarenko – if her game is on, she can do a lot of damage and beat all of the top players. Unfortunately, it’s not rare for her to have bad days and lose against much worse players. She started the year very well, winning the title in Hobart and crushing Jankovic 6-2 6-3 in the third round of the Australian Open. After that, there was a series of average results, but last week in Madrid she had an easy win over Wozniacki, proving that she can beat the top players. You can bet her to win it all at 159 (Pinnacle), which is not bad as I think she is more likely to win it than Rezai. If you want to bet up to $4 on her you can do it at 265 at Betfair
Overvalued Players
Dinara Safina – Ever since the injury, she is a completely different player. She currently has no believe in her own capabilities and lost ton of matches to low ranked players. In addition, she is mentally very weak and prone to breakdowns. Since the Australian Open she has played only four matches – a win over Szavay, and losses to Peer, Dulgheru and … Zakopalova – a player ranked 78 in the world with little potential to go any higher. I was able to watch two of those matches and was stunned by the amount of unforced errors Dinara was making. If you are to place a bet on her to win the French, the best place would be Betfair at odds of 36.15 (5% commission included). However, I would not recommend it because I doubt there will be any hedge opportunities with her. Depending on the draw, third round loss seems most likely.
Aravane Rezai –She played amazing last week and was able to defeat top players, such as Jankovic, Henin, and Venus Williams, but she is extremely inconsistent. She hits the ball very hard, and if she has an off day she may lose to an average player. And in a tournament which lasts two weeks, this is very likely to happen. Her best performance, before winning Madrid, was the title in Bali at the end of last year. Since then, she had inconsistent results including losses to inferior players – Petra Martic, Angelique Kerber, two losses to Malek, and two losses to Petkovic. Currently, the best place to bet on her would be on Pinnacle at odds of 21.45. But I wouldn’t be surprised if she loses before the round of 16, as there are some good counterpunchers whose game fit well against Rezai’s.
Justine Henin – I think she is the most likely winner of the French Open, but given the current odds of 3.25 (Pinnacle) she is extremely overvalued. Since her recent comeback, she has lost twice as a huge favorite – 1.03 to Dulko and 1.12 to Rezai. All of her other losses were to top players, but it’s important to note that she has played a lot of three setters. It is very likely that she will lose the first set in one of her matches at the French Open in which case you can get her to win the match (not the whole tournament) at odds around 3.25. So my advice will be to stay away from her at that price, even though she will most likely win it.
Undervalued Players
Martinez-Sanchez – Currently, the odds for her to win it all are highest at Pinnacle – 41. The price definitely provides some value, but I wouldn’t take her before the draw is out. The reason for that is her specific game, which matches very well to some styles, while it doesn’t cope very well with others. Martinez-Sanchez is probably the only player (along with Sam Stosur) who likes to rush the net and rely heavily on drop shots. She tries to break her opponent’s game and that works very well against the youngsters, who usually rely on groudstrokes. Martinez-Sanchez has done very well against Wozniacki, Azarenka, and other mindless ball bashers .However, I wouldn’t be happy to see Martinez-Sanchez facing some of the experienced players, such as the Williams’s sisters or Samanta Stosur. They are able to neutralize her lefty serve very effectively – one of her best weapons.
Yanina Wickmayer –a future top 3 player in my opinion. She has all the weapons to achieve that goal and will win many Grand Slams in the future, given she stays healthy. She is equally good on both sides (maybe her backhand is slightly better), moves very well, has powerful serve, and most importantly – competes extremely well. I can see her winning against all of the current top players, with the exception of Justine Henin. Being from Belgium, Henin was her idol as a child and it’s not easy playing your idols. Yet, she has pushed Henin on couple occasions, including a three setter at the Australian Open. Wickmayer may not win it all, but with a good draw I see her getting to the semifinals, which will provide very good hedge opportunities. You can get her at 36.7 (Pinnacle).
Alona Bondarenko – if her game is on, she can do a lot of damage and beat all of the top players. Unfortunately, it’s not rare for her to have bad days and lose against much worse players. She started the year very well, winning the title in Hobart and crushing Jankovic 6-2 6-3 in the third round of the Australian Open. After that, there was a series of average results, but last week in Madrid she had an easy win over Wozniacki, proving that she can beat the top players. You can bet her to win it all at 159 (Pinnacle), which is not bad as I think she is more likely to win it than Rezai. If you want to bet up to $4 on her you can do it at 265 at Betfair
