1. #1
    Gaze73
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    Handicaps are so annoying

    When I take +set handicap it goes 6:7 6:7, When I take +4.5 games it goes 6:3 2:6 2:6.

    Overall I prefer set handicaps because it's mind boggling how many players blow 4+ spreads despite winning a set. But lately every time I take the set handicap the dogs just cover game handicaps.

  2. #2
    PharaohUB
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    I don't mess with the spreads too often. I have same experience.

    I'd rather take -1.5 sets if I like -4.5 games. If I like +4.5 games, just take the ML.

    Never bet tennis to cover spreads. If you don't think your underddog can win don't bet them. If you don't think your favorite is going to win in straights dont bet them, bet the over.

    Spreads be dumb.

  3. #3
    Vyasports
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gaze73 View Post
    When I take +set handicap it goes 6:7 6:7, When I take +4.5 games it goes 6:3 2:6 2:6.
    Tell me about it.

    I have lost huge profits because of this dance they do.
    I agree with what pharaoh said.
    I find a simple solution...(but not 100% reliable):- suppose you've chosen +4.5 games handicap... and the match is live, your chosen player is losing, they will offer +5.5 , +6.5 (live) ...so you can cover your bets... but you have to be very smart about this.

  4. #4
    Gaze73
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    Quote Originally Posted by PharaohUB View Post
    I don't mess with the spreads too often. I have same experience.

    I'd rather take -1.5 sets if I like -4.5 games. If I like +4.5 games, just take the ML.

    Never bet tennis to cover spreads. If you don't think your underddog can win don't bet them. If you don't think your favorite is going to win in straights dont bet them, bet the over.

    Spreads be dumb.
    I used to think the same but over time I noticed that set handicaps help more than you'd expect. It's incredible how many favs throw a set, even if they start 6:1.

    For example I have an ATP angle on dogs priced between +200 to +299 and they are currently 21-26 on ML and 37-10 with set handicap, so that's 44% win rate vs 78%. Yesterday Caruso was one of those but he lost 0:2 by 3 games so I made this thread.

    I have another angle on dogs +300 to +399 and they are 8-26 on ML but 21-13 on game spread, that's 23% vs 61% win rate.

    I also have a WTA angle that's 4-8 on ML but 12-0 on Set spread so it does help. I don't take overs because dogs win 2-0 whenever I do, my last overs were Sonego vs Djokovic and Schmiedlova vs Azarenka. Basically if there's value on the over there's also value on the dog spread. Unless the players are 50/50 so there's basically no spread but I avoid those games.
    Last edited by Gaze73; 11-13-20 at 03:42 PM.

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