Handicapping Tennis

**ZetaPsi808** · 04-28-10, 01:50 AM

you can not cap games by attempting to predict player performance. the best way to do it is by watching line movements and knowing what side the public is on

**MexicanStallion** · 04-28-10, 01:54 AM

Tennis is tough. I don't do much with it other than tail others.

**jjgold** · 04-28-10, 05:35 AM

Forget early rounds because you do not know who is going to tank a match, the best thing is like Zeta said watch line moves. The later rounds are much better to bet.

**shari91** · 04-28-10, 06:07 AM

Can't believe I'm going to say this, but I agree with JJ. Early rounds suck wtih tennis and are pretty much a crap shoot. First round definitely, although if you bet every strong favourite in a Grand Slam first round, chances are you'd still come out ahead. This is only because it's best of 5 though and not best of 3 as it is in all other tournaments.

I don't use line movements as the main determination for making a bet in tennis. For me, knowing how well each player handles the surface is probably the strongest factor I use. But you also need to take into consideration recent injuries, their form lately, and whether or not a player is mentally tough ie Russian women are notorious for melting down in high pressure situations.

Some will probably disagree with this, but I think the most value is to be had by getting to know the players that aren't household names. For some reason it seems the books don't spend too much time setting the lines in matches between lesser known players and there are often times when you see a line that just seems off, allowing you to capitalise on that.

Those guys you mentioned in your original post probably all have different methods of capping. I know for example TB posts plays hours in advance at times, thus taking out much of the line movement factor. Maybe it's all a matter of personal preference and finding what seems to work? Not sure.

Best of luck!

**beefcake** · 04-28-10, 06:17 AM

tennisinsight.com and tennisexplorer.com are great...

**Boner_18** · 04-28-10, 06:54 AM

atptennis.com - use the head to head feature and then look at each players "playing activity" and "match stats."

**Justin7** · 04-28-10, 11:11 AM

Originally posted by ZetaPsi808

you can not cap games by attempting to predict player performance. the best way to do it is by watching line movements and knowing what side the public is on

Have you tried analyzing player performance? I worked with a Russian that was brilliant at Women's Tennis. It was almost pure stats, and he crushed it year after year.

**jjgold** · 04-28-10, 11:21 AM

One of problems with tennis is so many guys make a solid living it takes away lots of motivation to win, some guys required to play tourneys for various reasons and just tank 1st or second round match so they can go home. Secondly injuries than none of have access to play a major role in tennis outcomes, some guys play to pick up a check even though they have no shot to win match. Lots of high ranked players show up and make it look good for a round or two and tank the match just to pick up appearances fees, ect Betting tennis in early rounds is a death trap.

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-28-10, 11:27 AM

beefcake & boner gave the best sites out there.

**PingPong** · 04-28-10, 11:28 AM

didn't see if anyone else has mentioned it, but matchstat.com is an informative site

**ringemup** · 04-28-10, 11:35 AM

u have to be following tennis all-yr round to get a good idea on who to bet on or else ur getting urself into trouble

**ZetaPsi808** · 04-28-10, 11:49 AM

Originally posted by Justin7

Have you tried analyzing player performance? I worked with a Russian that was brilliant at Women's Tennis. It was almost pure stats, and he crushed it year after year.

Justin i know nothing about tennis. if your friend is a genius then maybe he was on the same knowledge and information level as vegas.

i dont try to to beat the books by looking at stats. for every stat i have, vegas has 10x as many stats and they are much more informative. i.e. inside information on injuries.

i just figure out what side the books are trying to sucker people for action, and then just bet the other side

**MilfDriller** · 04-28-10, 12:07 PM

don't know if anybody put this in this thread yet, but I enjoy

matchstat.com

among others

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-28-10, 12:15 PM

Originally posted by ZetaPsi808

you can not cap games by attempting to predict player performance. the best way to do it is by watching line movements and knowing what side the public is on

Tennis has so much funky line movement at times that you will f*ck yourself more than you help yourself if this is all you do. Best info I could dole out to try to cap tennis or some of what works for me at least [sometimes]:

1. Know the surface they're playing on and what both players in a match-up do on that surface. Also know player histories at the tournament they are playing in. There are some guys who are very average most of the year, but play particularly well at certain tournaments ... you can do a world of good by knowing that.

2. Current form/injuries. Know if it's someone's first match on clay while their opponent has played on clay for weeks, etc. Injury info is sometimes real hard to find, but if you know about them, you are a leg up.

3. Head-2-head [If most of the head-2-head is several years old, throw it out - doesn't mean a damn thing]

4. Don't trust Russians.

**Sawyer** · 04-28-10, 12:21 PM

Surface is a very important factor. Some players play great in hard surface while some players play much better in grass.

**jjgold** · 04-28-10, 02:19 PM

Also there is no such thing as killing a book in tennis, limits are too low and if you do win they will boot your fukkin ass out.

**beefcake** · 04-28-10, 08:41 PM

Originally posted by Justin7

Have you tried analyzing player performance? I worked with a Russian that was brilliant at Women's Tennis. It was almost pure stats, and he crushed it year after year.

Im convinced there has to be kind of system(havent found it yet) to betting tennis,something along the lines of comparing something like sagarin ratings and some other combo of stuff that has yet to be found.Or maybe it has if your russian friend did so well.
I think if you NEVER bet favs and always got +even money on your bets you WILL win money long term.

1.Betting favs will kill you sooner or later.
2.Like eagles said,never bet russians,
3.Betting totals is an untapped market and I think can be more profitable even with the juice.

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-28-10, 08:48 PM

Totals for sure are a much easier monster to beat IMO too.

**Spanks** · 04-28-10, 09:24 PM

**Boner_18** · 04-29-10, 06:15 AM

I have been off the wagon for a bit with tennis. I was hitting over 55% over 150+ plays but lost several in clay season to bring me down to 53%.

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-29-10, 11:26 AM

I do think betting favorites is okay, but I think the thing people don't do enough is parlay higher chalk favorites together rather than risking a large amount on one high chalk play. Minimizes the risk, while still giving you a decent payout. To me where people go wrong on parlays is trying to cram too many players into one parlay, I think 2-3 at most gets you a better win rate. My personal strategy on favorites is not taking any for a single play that are higher than about -175. If the chalk is higher than that, the handicap often provides better value for your pick if you think they're that solid of a play to win for the day. Well hell, that's kind of my strategy on all sports is not taking high chalk in a single play.

**lcf** · 05-01-10, 07:58 PM

Buy http://www.oncourt.info/

**iceminers26** · 05-02-10, 12:07 AM

Tennis has been my most probitable sport since I picked it up full time, been betting tennis full time for the past 3 years and all have been good to me; over 100 units in the first year and I surpassed the +150 unit mark in each of the past 2 seasons. Before these past 3 years where I have played it full time I would just mess around with a play here and there because it was usually the only thing on late night or at other odd times and I wanted action but once I realized that there was value in it, I decided to focus on it on a consistent basis. I have played both ATP and WTA in the past 3 seasons but noticed I was far better in the WTA and that if I just focused on it I felt I could have even better seasons. Therefore this year I am just playing the WTA and have a goal of breaking the +300 unit mark for the season. I didn't really post much from January to March with college hoops still going on but I did okay but was able to post full time in March and picked up over 40 units for the month (anything over +25 units a month is good in my book, 25x12=300).

With all that BS out of the way, here is what I do and hopefully they are some helpful tips for ya.

1. I never play anthing over (130), reason being I feel tennis is a value sport and laying large chalk is just death, you may win a few in a row but in the long run you will lose IMO. This does not mean I play strictly underdogs and no favorites, if I like a favorite enough I will play them on the handicap or may even go another route and play the under in the match.

2. Have a solid book, Pinny is obviously the number 1 choice but living in the States I do not play there so I use my local and 5Dimes. I feel that many of the books that cater to US players rip you off when it comes to tennis lines compared to Pinny, 5dimes being no different, but the lines at 5dimes are not off as much as the several other books that rip you off big time plus 5dimes offers handicaps and totals which several other US books do not.

3. Get familiar with the seasons and the surfaces. (Most importantly the transition to hard to clay IMO, don't think that just because a big named player is solid and has dominated H2H against another player on one surface, that he or she will do the same when it comes to the other surface). A perfect example would be Kimmy Clijsters be upset a few weeks back as a huge favorite on clay or a player like MJMS who just thrives on the clay surface and plays a unique style.

That is pretty much it for my rules/tips that I stay within, not much but that's all I got.

As for my daily routine when it comes to capping a match, I do as followed:

1. Bring up Pinny's website to check lines in American form.

2. Bring up Betfair's website and use their H2H match-up section to cap the match.

These are the only 2 sites I use to cap a match, there are a lot out there, but I'm familiar with these 2 sites and they provided all the info I need.

Good luck with your tennis capping and hope you do well. If you have any questions just shoot me a PM and I'll be happy to answer them if I can.

ICE

**pico** · 05-02-10, 12:17 AM

have you seen handicap tennis? aka wheelchair tennis. the ball can bounce twice

**Boner_18** · 05-02-10, 09:53 AM

LOL Ice i don't bet WTA casue i cant watch it. But if you crush it like that more power to ya.