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I'd expect a bit of a letdown on Kerber's side but would expect her to go through in 3 sets. Radwanska has been playing well but I doubt Serena will lose 2 semis in a row. I also like Radwanska more so that I once had a crush on a Polish girl. In the end, I think a Kerber/Serena finals is in store.
Konta opened at about +250. I was expecting more love for Kerber from the books. Hmm. I think the line will move, with people pounding Kerber's line, especially in parlays. Agga is staying steady at about +450.
Serena's futures are at -250 now. Tempting to just hedge this out, but I probably won't, unless I can get a better number. Meanwhile, Murray is having all sorts of trouble with Ferrer.
The roof is closed now and probably will stay closed for the last match. They say it should result in slower conditions and lower bounce. I feel envious of all the dudes hitting big dogs.
Let's hit Monfils ML @+235 for 0.25u. Just for the heck of it.
-1.25u yestersay, Monfils was close to pushing to it to five though, but Raonic is moving like a gazelle right now. Funny how the WTA side worked out: after all this talk about upsets, in the semis we got Serena, the best player since the US Open, the most improved player in top-10 and the most improved player in top-50.
But let's throw some darts. First I am dropping 0.65u on Agga @+490 to hedge my Serena futures. Crazier things have happened. But overall, I think it is going to be hip to be square today. So my match-by-match leans:
A degen parlay: Serena 2-0/Kerber ML/Novak ML 1u to win 1.75u
Agga over 19@-115 for 0.75u
Not really liking this too much, but I am just tailing reedy who is almost as hot right now as the picture on his avatar. Let's assume Serena will not be a mean b.tch to Agga today. And this will hedge the parlay a little. Agga has improved a lot last Fall: her fitness is superb, she is winning a lot of long rallies and 3-setters lately; her serve has improved; her confidence is high. But this match is still completely on Serena's racket.
Kerber o21@-115 for 0.75u
Liking this a little more, personally, so probably a bagel in this one. But I think Kerber will struggle a little today, being an overwhelming fav and coming off a huge win yesterday. And Konta has the game to bother top players. My only concern is that this is obviously her first GS SF. But who knows, Konta might take a set.
Novak 3-1: 0.5u @+255
The favorite surface and tournament for Novak. Roger has been playing out of his mind, but here comes Novak. I think Roger will take a set though. The crowd will be pro-Feds as usual, but this is the only Slam where Djoker has a few fans, I think. Any input would be appreciated as usual. GL folks.
N.B. As you can see, I am an overs bettor. But these late stages of GSs are in general not very good for WTA overs. Quite often one player gets overwhelmed by the occasion. And there are a lot of mismatches too. Like today, if Serena and Kerber come out fully focused, they really should have no probs with the dogs. But I still think at least one of these favs will struggle.
Like your Novak play. Don't see the Fed winning more than 1 set but also doubt Novak can win straight sets.
I think Djokovic winning 3-1 may be what we are looking at; maybe a prop on federer to win the second set
More or less what was expected from Agga vs Serena.
I think Serena covered every game line and under after her 1st round battle against Giorgi. Somebody must have parlayed those five matches, that's like +2500. I am still completely shocked that Aza was the actual favorite to win this event, with Serena futures as high as +525. Call the f.cking BBC, if this was not the most blatant line fixing that I do not know what is.
Let's hope the second SF will be a little more interesting.
Whoever said women's SFs are usually a letdown spot are on to something, wouldn't surprise me if Kerber won it in two sets
Read what I wrote in the NB of my "post with leans" above. Unfortunately, I was dumb enough to ignore my own advice. Typically, starting from around QFs the newcomers tend to struggle with the weight of expectations. Good fight from Konta, but now that she is not serving so well and Kerber is reading her serve better looks like a 6-1/6-2 2nd set.
deleted, double post.
Last edited by frugalgambler; 01-28-16 at 02:15 PM.
Hurts to lose the over by one game. Stupid of me to take the WTA overs.
Let's see if Djoker comes through to save the day. Would not be surprised to see Feds winning. Anyway, Serena's futures bet is alive so this thread will not end up as a losing thread.
Wow, Kerber opened at +500. Let's lock 1u on Kerber @+500. Probably will add more later. I think I have a total of 5.7u on Serena to win ~6.5u.
Yup, that's more in line with what I suspected, unfortunately.Originally Posted by frugalgambler
Probably won't be watching Feds' match. I do not get the odds for Raonic tomorrow. He is going against a 4-time Aus Open RUP. If Novak loses, I am jumping on Murray -1.5 sets @-130. If not, I might wait a little.
Nice hedge opportunity. You'll soon be rolling in money. You'll never have to work again.
Is that supposed to be a snarky comment ? If yes, you sounded more dumb than sarcastic.
Awesome match. Awesome result. Djoker looked like demi-god over the first two sets, but then Feds was pretty good himself. Djoker saves my day. Liking Murray tomorrow, but not so sure just yet.
I didn't think you'll see it that way. I'm sorry. But it always nice to be in a position to be able to hedge a futures bet for a profit.
Keen to hear what people think of the final...One thing that did intrigue me was that Serena wasn't as sharp last year in her finals as her dominating self all the finals going on the over and she really struggled to close them out.
Does anyone take Kerbers lefty Dna into it or will Serena make her look like she's playing a 15 year old like she did with Rads?
No problem at all. I just did not get the part about "You'll never have to work again." This is a hobby for me, I am not betting tens of thousands, very rarely thousands and usually only on futures. I specifically did not want to specify my "unit size" or even if I was betting on my leans at all.
Anyway, thanks for commenting back, I do appreciate that. Nice comeback in your NBA thread, btw ! I am following it.
I do not think Kerber has a realistic chance here: this is her first GS final, and her 2nd serve is weak. More importantly nobody can play with Serena when she is playing at this level. Unless Serena self-destructs, I am not seeing an upset. But I think at least set can be tight, and not because Serena will feel bad for Kerber like she felt for Agga. Kerber has a nice ground game, and her first serve is OK. I do not think Serena has a particular problem with lefties. And Kerber's lefty serve is not nearly as effective as Kvitova's or Safarova's, or even Makarova's (when Makarova is playing well).
Last edited by frugalgambler; 01-28-16 at 01:09 PM.
Anyway, a nice day yesterday thanks to that incredible ATP match. About +1u on the day. I'll do the math later. I think I am still about +3-4u on the thread, not counting Serena's futures.
I am seeing a lot of folks on Raonic today. Yeah, he looked impressive so far. But I still think in a GS SF, the experience will prevail. Ferrer looked indestructible before the QF too. So let's throw a couple of little darts:
Murray -1.5 sets 0.7u @-130
Murray 3-1 0.5u @+255
GL folks.
You are betting off hedging your future bet with Kerber +1.5 sets +200 or whatever
That way it is possible to win both bets potentially
That depends: this way you would also lose more money on the hedging bet. I do not think Kerber takes a set here. I think I will just add 0.5u-1u on Kerber's ML and be done with it.
Hahaha.... I literally couldn't have less of a clue about this game. Absolutely zero.
Good luck fella.
Thanks reedy.
Finally did the math, since tracking my "leans" was the main goal of this thread. Gotta say I did not expect to spend so much time on tennis the past 10 days.
Day-to-day I am up 4.8u thanks to two big days. Breakdown on the plays with the unit size ranging from 0.25 to 1u: WTA overs 16-16; WTA other 10-12; Parlays 3-3; ATP 1-4. Kinda what I suspected, I do not like ATP that much. Murray pending, ugh.
Lucked out with the Serena futures. Pending 5.2u to win 6.4u & 1u on Kerber to win 5u; already lost on hedging 1.15u. Let's add 0.75u on Kerber ML @+525 to win 3.9u. This way, if Serena wins I am 3.5u and if Kerber wins I am up 2.5u. Love this. The funny part is that in real life I do not really have to hedge. One of the tiny darts I threw before the Open started landed on Kerber @+4000.
I do not think I like the final's GL or anything. Unless I can get Kerber +6 for ~-110, right now it is -130. I do think at least one set will be contested. But you never know, if Serena comes out on fire, Kerber might start tearing up from frustration. She does go off the rails sometimes: see e.g. her 4-game losing streak to freaking Konta in the semis. Even Sharapova looked like she was going to cry a little after losing the first set to Serena.
NB Here is the day-to-day progression of the total "profits", in units:
1.9/1.9/2.8/1.6/-0.2/4.2/7.4/4.8/3.5/4.8u
Murray - 3.5 means Murray in 3 or 4 sets?
Let's keep the darts flying. 0.25u on Hlavackova/Hradecka @+575. I would have preferred +1.5 sets @+200 or so, but I do not have that line. I just think the line is inflated, despite the winning streak and all. Would've preferred somebody like Vesnina/Makarova in that spot, but why not the big Czechs.
No that should mean Murray should win 3.5 more total games than Raonic. Read the book's rules, they usually explain that.
Hugely entertaining 1st set. Love watching doubles. 10 out of 12 games got to at least 30-30. H&H got to within two points of winning it, but fell apart in TB. Hingis has asked for a medical timeout though, looks like some shoulder problem ? Not over yet, I hope.
Added: yeah the 2nd set was a bit of letdown. The Czechs ran out of steam faster than Hingis. That was surprising. Hingis is still a magician, Mirza is not that far behind. But the Czechs should've taken the 1st set, and then it would have been a different affair.
Last edited by frugalgambler; 01-29-16 at 01:47 AM.
F.cking Murray. Covered the -4 GL, but not the -1.5 SL. Raonic looked impressive the first two sets I watched. Probably a top-5 player if he keeps doing this. -1.7u on the day.
OK, probably the final darts.
A degen paralay: Serena 2-0/Novak -1.5 sets 1u to win 1.1u
Serena/Kerber First set games won o9.5 0.5u @+145
There is a chance the first set might be tight with great expectations weighing on both women.
GL folks.
Can't help but to root for Kerber. Even though it is killing my parlay. Vamos. -0.3u on the day. Quick and easy.
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