Verdasco, Fernando - Davydenko, Nikolay

[emeka]

How do you like the OVER 37,5 GAMES?

[Boner_18]

Haven't gotten this far yet... I am going to try to cap all four today. My first instinct is that Davydenko can take it in straights but again haven't looked...

[emeka]

Ok , Boner i will wait your bets, you can make it in 4 hours?

[Boner_18]

Haha. No I probably wont be done quite yet in 4 hours Have to go eat with girlfriend's parents. If you like the play just go for it! Don't wait on my account. I will be writing about it eventually but that was just my first gut reaction.

[JNic]

i have a lot of money directly on davydenko and then a lot more on davy -1.5 sets. I do think he is gonna win 3-0 though

[EaglesPhan36]

All the money is on Davydenko. All I'm saying is there is "trust" built-up by people who want to believe Davydenko isn't a con artist because of him beating Federer and Nadal this year and him wacking around a bunch of nobodies in rounds 1-3. I am continuously skeptical of Russians and Davydenko. Think of the money that gets eaten up by the books today if Davydenko loses. If Verdasco gets to +300 or thereabouts, I will think seriously about backing the Spaniard. It's a huge leap of faith to back Daydenko at the current price in a pressure situation especially considering he does not have a weapon that he can rely on when he gets into trouble. He doesn't have a big serve or a particularly big forehand. Verdasco can use those things, albeit they can be erratic.

[Boner_18]

yeah i am all over Davydenko, straight up, straight sets, and under. I do believe he is/was a crooked ****. But I don't think he is tossing away the greatest chance of his career here. He was a bigger fave to others thus = more reason to toss the match.

He looks dominant. I just hope I don't have to eat my words. Good luck to all.

[mihaita666]

All the money is on Davydenko. All I'm saying is there is "trust" built-up by people who want to believe Davydenko isn't a con artist because of him beating Federer and Nadal this year and him wacking around a bunch of nobodies in rounds 1-3. I am continuously skeptical of Russians and Davydenko. Think of the money that gets eaten up by the books today if Davydenko loses. If Verdasco gets to +300 or thereabouts, I will think seriously about backing the Spaniard. It's a huge leap of faith to back Daydenko at the current price in a pressure situation especially considering he does not have a weapon that he can rely on when he gets into trouble. He doesn't have a big serve or a particularly big forehand. Verdasco can use those things, albeit they can be erratic.

already at +245 at bp....i think verdasco wins, seriously

[mihaita666]

and i cant wait to see ppl jumping on roddick in the match with cilic.odds should look the same like here

[Boner_18]

For what reasons do you think Verdasco wins here?

[EaglesPhan36]

I guess I just don't understand the hype for Davydenko. I think he's getting over-valued from the wins over Federer and Nadal in succession. It's Doha, the first tourney of the year - the Federer and Nadal he saw there are totally different from the ones playing now. No one seems to talk about Verdasco steamrolling Gonzalez, Djokovic and Tsonga in Kooyong. Remember Andy Murray won Doha last year with wins over Federer and then Roddick. Who did Murray play in Melbourne? Verdasco. Who had a large head-2-head advantage in that one? Murray. Who won? Verdasco. I'm just not on the bandwagon for Davydenko until he does it when it matters.

[Boner_18]

What about his wins in rounds one, two and three? Each one in straights and a set at love in each of these? Sure his competition was garbage but so was Verdasco's in 1,2,3.

Why dont the wins in London matter? Are you in the camp that top players don't try for ATP Masters events and Grand Slams are all that matter? I know there are some who honestly believe it.

I understand the hesitation taking Davy... He really has showed an amazing ability to chuck a match when he should roll... I guess I'm just more easily converted to being a supporter than the rest. In a few short hours we shall see.

[EaglesPhan36]

Davydenko has done well at the World Tour Finals the last couple of years, but that year-end tournament has little bearing to me on something taking place almost three months later. More often than not outside of Federer, there is usually at least one participant in the final of that tournament that isn't one of the top 3-4. I just think at this price, taking Davydenko at close to -300 is suicide when you're talking about players that are very close in the rankings and a best of 5 format. To me, Davydenko is getting a lot of attention for beating Federer two times in a row - both at times of the year in which you can honestly question the form/desire of Federer being that the first came in London at the end of a long year and the other came in the 1st evenr of the year. Deservedly so that Davydenko should be getting some publicity for how he has played in the last few events, but it seems everyone has made it a foregone conclusion that Davydenko & Federer will match-up in the QFs and that is the pressure where the Russian often times cracks and where a guy with a big game like Verdasco can just "go for it" with reckless abandon.

[Boner_18]

I understand. Disagree some places obviously, but understand. I am also basing some of this found value on Davydenko's shellacking of Verdasco in an almost identical spot at Rolland Garros last year, something that obviously can't be overlooked.

[EaglesPhan36]

Don't disagree on the French thing, except this surface obviously is much more conducive to Verdasco's game. Just sitting and waiting, My book has a bonehead start time listed for it at 8:15pm ET which even if Venus crushed Schiavone would likely be at least 15-30 early. So I have to choose my play by then instead of around 9pm ET when it will probably start.

[Tsonga]

Don't underestimate Davy...he is just like playstation.

[EaglesPhan36]

Davydenko wins the 1st set 6-2. Very underwhelming performance by Verdasco. Davydenko didn't have to do anything to win that set but show up and let Verdasco suck on serve.

[Boner_18]

Yeah... 22% first serves in for Verdasco at about 4-2... Can't win like that. A fresh set coming up, I'm sure that is what Verdasco is telling himself too.

[EaglesPhan36]

Early break, figures he wakes up now. Too late for my over 1st set bet, but go Verdasco make this entertaining.

[EaglesPhan36]

And now he's gonna give it back, what a mook.

[kingsr]

Verdasco officially on TILT

[Fthenorm]

Davy will be fresh for Fed if this keeps up

[Karayilan9]

The Russian mob put money on Davy, he's playing for this life

[timbo46]

Great call on the OVER, emeka.

[kingsr]

The Russian mob put money on Davy, he's playing for this life

Get your JINX on!

[JNic]

this match is really bad and very strange to watch. both of them really haven't lived up to expectations

[Glitch]

goin the distance...overtime basically.

[2MuchMoney]

Verdasco almost broke him on the first game. Good thing I took him at +325 after the first set. Looks like a battle!!

[emeka]

Thanks timbo46 I also got Davydenko -5,5 -huh almost fail

[Boner_18]

woke up to this. bummer. oh well.

[Busterflywheel]

I guess I just don't understand the hype for Davydenko. I think he's getting over-valued from the wins over Federer and Nadal in succession. It's Doha, the first tourney of the year - the Federer and Nadal he saw there are totally different from the ones playing now. No one seems to talk about Verdasco steamrolling Gonzalez, Djokovic and Tsonga in Kooyong. Remember Andy Murray won Doha last year with wins over Federer and then Roddick. Who did Murray play in Melbourne? Verdasco. Who had a large head-2-head advantage in that one? Murray. Who won? Verdasco. I'm just not on the bandwagon for Davydenko until he does it when it matters.

Agreed!

[EaglesPhan36]

Davydenko at -290, definitely not worth the hassle. Good thing for the Davy believers is his price against Federer should be astronomical after what happened this round.