Ep we might see a long shot get to to the semis,and by that I mean a 100+,care to take a gander?
-
Comment -
US Open Qualis
Sijsling +140
Paire is his opponent here, a Frenchman who plays most of his matches on dirt. Both got through their 1st two rounds of qualis in pretty solid form. Still the plus odds here make more sense on the guy who had been playing qualis during most of the US Open hard court series.
Falconi -110
WTA side. She draws Dubois. These two have met twice in the last year, splitting the matches 1-1. Falconi won the last one just a few weeks ago on the ITF level in Vancouver. She dropped a close opening set and then dominated Dubois in the last two sets. One win away from the main draw. American pride or Canadian hosery? USA by way of Ecuador.Comment -
As I say before each of these, this is to help me keep my original thoughts in-line as the tournament progresses and hopefully to help provide some insight that might be useful to others. Let's get that cash these next two weeks!
US OPEN MEN'S DRAW PREVIEW
NADAL QUARTER
The top half of this quarter provides a pretty solid path to the QFs for Nadal if his game comes together. Kohlschreiber looms as the toughest part of this draw to me and that would be a 3rd round match. 1st round match between Simon-Young should be interesting. On the bottom portion of the draw, Spaniards Ferrer and Verdasco are the seeds. I don't think either is particularly suited to a long stay at the Open. Nalbandian and the winner of Gulbis-Chardy could be the ones to watch here. Dolgopolov might be a bit too green to beat Ferrer in a best of 5, but he's one to look at too. Any one of about 6 guys here could make the QFs. I think Gulbis or Nalbandian if he can find the fitness to play in this format. Either way, I think this is Rafa's draw to lose. EDGE NADAL, DARKHORSE GULBIS.
MURRAY QUARTER
Murray's portion of the draw to the QFs features few problems. Wawrinka and Almagro are the seeds here, but neither is in good form this summer. Querrey might be the toughest part here and would give Murray a good 4th round match, but Querrey has to get there first. His summer has turned sour after a quick start in LA, but if he's going to decide to play hard this would be a nice draw for him. Down on the bottom, it's Berdcych and Youzhny as the top seeds. Berdych drew a potential tough fight in the 1st against Llodra, although in a best of 5, Berdych should be consistent enough to win. There's a lot of "names" down with Berdych like Robredo, Stepanek and Benneteau, but none have the talent I think to beat him. Youzhny has a workable draw to the 4th round, especially if Isner at least tries to play and the draw doesn't get reworked. This should be Berdych's trip to the QFs for someone else to try and take. Would be a superb QF between Murray & Berdych. EDGE MURRAY, DARKHORSE QUERREY.
DJOKOVIC QUARTER
Djokovic doesn't have as easy a path to the QFs as Nadal and Murray probably do. He has Baghdatis and Fish looming in his draw. Fish is going to be a popular public play I think. There should be a super 3rd round match with Baghdatis and Fish on the horizon although I think Baggy's fitness and schedule could potentially derail him. Seems like we need that 3rd rounder so we can hear everyone say how Baghdatis could break out like Fish has if he was on the Fish fitness/diet plan. Blah. I think Fish should make it to 4th round and a showdown with Djokovic. Djokovic should gain revenge on Troicki in Round 1 and looks good to the 4th round. Up top, Davydenko, Roddick, Bellucci & Monfils are the seeds. Seems like everyone likes Roddick here and unfortunately I am one of those people. Roddick should have a nice draw to a 3rd rounder against Monfils or Andreev. I don't think either beats Roddick in a best of 5. Davydenko is the wild card here. He played a little better in his last tournament and will be a tough out if he can pull it together. This one looks like Roddick vs. Fish or Djokovic, either of which has great storylines. Don't think that Roddick isn't salivating at getting either guy probably particularly Fish after the way Fish whipped his ass in the 3rd set in Cincinnati. EDGE RODDICK, DARKHORSE DAVYDENKO.
FEDERER QUARTER
Federer has a workable draw to the QFs with few potential road blocks. Melzer is the other top seed in his portion of the draw and he looks to be fading this summer. Won't be shocked if Melzer loses early. Up top, Soderling looms again with Cilic as the other high seed here. Cilic has been an enigma this year and you get the feeling he'll be boom or bust here. Marchenko in the 1st round is going to be tough. If he gets past him, he could roll to the 4th against Soderling. Soderling might not have had a superb summer, but with de Bakker and Gonzalez in his portion of the draw, his experience and success in recent Slams makes him the guy to beat here. Soderling vs. Federer looks like it looks like it could amazingly happen for the 5th time in the last 8 Grand Slams. Look for Federer to pay him back for breaking his Slam semi streak if they do meet. EDGE FEDERER, DARKHORSE CILIC.
I would be surprised if we don't see 3 of the 4 top seeds make it to the semis here. The draws for the seeds shape up pretty nicely for Nadal, Federer and Murray. Djokovic is the one I think is most likely to fall short although even though I like him to the semis, Nadal's summer could suggest he may be an upset victim too. I've got Nadal vs. Murray and Roddick vs. Federer in the semifinals. We haven't seen Nadal and Federer for quite awhile at this stage. Murray will be the popular pick with his run this summer, but if it does get to these matches, don't underestimate Nadal's memory about losing in the Australian Open to Murray this year where Murray pretty much out-fitnessed Nadal into retirement. End of the day, I think Murray or Federer wins this and Federer will probably be as motivated as he's ever been after failing to register a finals appearance in the last two Slams.Comment -
Falconi won EZ. Sijsling battling in the 3rd after winning 6-1 then losing 2-6 in the 2nd. Will play a little Stakhovsky with everyone else tonight too.Comment -
Hey EP (or anyone) - I also like Stakovsky tonight and put some on him yesterday. He played great against debakker. Does anyone know why the line is dropping so much though? It's almost PK now but Stak was quite a clear favourite before...
Anyone know?Comment -
Line drifted early in the afternoon, now it's firmly in Stakhovksy's favor a little more so than where it opened. -130.Comment -
Who do you like Eaglesphan if you don't mind.Comment -
I am rolling with Stakhovsky.
Comment -
Mikail, I believe EP said he'd be going with Stak above. Irrespective I'm with you on Stakhovsky. Let's cash this!
Comment -
Man, Stakovsky better start playing soon.... Awful start by him and Istomin serving well to start
Comment -
Typical Istomin rollercoaster ride, Stakhovsky wins and we're all happy! Istomin is a helluva talent, but until he can bring it consistently from set-to-set, he's not going to get a lot of important wins. Onto the US Open!Comment -
Cash it, nice one EP/Mikail!
I liked how Stak never gave up and he's pretty fun to watch with his array of shots.
Is it just me or is Istomin very talented (great serve) but it also seems like he is an injury waiting to happen at any time? Seems he just walks funny/awkwardly or was he carrying an injury?Comment -
Nice one EP. It was fun to watch StakComment -
Hello EP. Any plays for tonight?Comment -
No matches until Monday. Only advice I give to start is make sure you don't go crazy with too many bets. It's real easy to get out of control early in Grand Slams and dig yourself a major hole.
I'm waiting for totals to go up, hopefully later tonight, then I'll probably have some picks to post later on.Last edited by EaglesPhan36; 08-29-10, 02:55 PM.Comment -
very good point, i used to do that in grand slams but now i really find a reason to make a bet because i find it's easier to bet the later roundsComment -
Good one!Comment -
And don't be one of those people who tries high chalk parlays with too many plays. People think it's easy money to parlay say 8 of the top seeds. Might get you by for a round, maybe even two, but I think it catches up with you sooner rather than later. Not to mention you still wind up shelling out a pretty penny if you're taking the huge favorites, even in a parlay.Comment -
Thanks for the words of advice EP Let's have fun this week and make some money.Comment -
Lil Wayne picked Nadal & Clijsters to win. Adjust your futures accordingly.
Last edited by SBR Jonelyn; 01-14-15, 09:39 AM.Comment -
Tursunov back on Twitter. This is a CLASSIC dig at Gasquet.
Got to go get some food. Kissed this girl @ the club so I got munchies now
) hehe (Tennis insiders will get this one. (I hope))
Comment -
I'm not real big on the men's futures to win the entire open as it really looks to be a 2-3 horse race IMO with Federer, Murray and Nadal and those odds while decent aren't superb "value" [ick] to have to win 7 matches. Laugh if you must. Going to play more on the WTA side where it's open and the odds offer some great rewards.
U.S. OPEN FUTURES
TO WIN THEIR QUARTER
RODDICK +225
FISH +750
TO WIN THE OPEN
CLIJSTERS +360
ZVONAREVA +2200
VENUS +1300
Comment -
Books are big time pussies when it comes to posting handicaps/totals for Grand Slams. No one wants to be the market setter. There's no reason why totals & handicaps shouldn't be up for these Monday matches. I mean Jesus Christ, they put OVER/UNDERs and lines for NFL Week #1 about two months ago. Someone sack up and do it before Midnight one time. Sheesh.
I'll be making my Monday picks tomorrow morning once someone grows a sack overnight and posts these other lines. Have my ideas ready, but waiting to see what all is available so I can whittle my picks down to a smaller amount for Day 1.Comment -
I'm glad to hear it's not just the books here. What a joke. I can bet the total on an NCAAF game 2 weeks away but no tennis yet. Same thing happened to me during the French and I was left trying to look at 50 friggin matches in a race against the clock.
Best of luck this week and enjoy those tickets!!
Comment -
Hell there's a line for the Heat & Celtics in October, so stupid. So obvious one book rules the roost in setting these lines [Pinnacle].Comment -
US open here we come EP.Comment -
gl at the us open, going to follow you on your womens futures.
Comment -
US OPEN MONDAY PLAYS
PARLAY: NISHIKORI + HEWITT [-102]
Nishikori draws Korolev to open. Korolev acquitted himself okay at New Haven and did win a few rounds at the Australian Open ages ago, but for the most part his smash style has not translated to wins. He hits the ball hard, but his serve is something that seems to fail him with its inconsistency. Nishikori made it through qualis here and has some momentum coming in here. The youngster has always had talent, but has been sidetracked by injuries early in his career. Remember it was two years ago that he was a breakout star of sorts making the 4th round at the US Open. He'll play to put the ball back in play and let his opponent make errors. That should be a good game plan against Korolev. Hewitt draws Mathieu whom he has beaten on three different surfaces in their careers, albeit all meetings were two years or more ago. Hewitt came back in Cincinnati from the calf injury and showed some promise against Soderling, eventually losing in 3. Mathieu has still struggled this summer, failing in qualis in New Haven and scoring just one main draw win in three matches. Mathieu has lost in the 1st round in 3 of his last 5 trips at the US Open. He may give Hewitt a tight match, but I think the Aussie comes through with a better overall game and mental attitude.
DODIG +155
Dodig made it through qualis to get here and draws Fernando Gonzalez. Quite frankly, Gonzo can beat anyone on a given day with his grip it & rip it style. However, injuries have derailed most of his 2010 season. He has one match in since the French Open and that was getting pummeled by Radek Stepanek in New Haven. I think it's a bit ambitious to think Gonzalez has the fitness to be prepared for a best of 5 format. Dodig will need to get in a high percentage of 1st serves and winning the opening set would be big to let Gonzalez know that he's in for a grind which I don't believe he's ready for just yet. Gonzalez' best chance here to me is that Dodig is flat and he rolls him in straights. Could happen, but I'll wager it doesn't.
CILIC-MARCHENKO OVER 35.5 [-133]
Cilic and Marchenko may be a lot more of a battle than most think. Cilic has not had a stellar 2010 and his form this summer on hard courts was far from impressive. Marchenko meanwhile has shown that he fights hard with a three set loss to Baghdatis in Washington and a 6-4 mark on hard courts during the summer season. I don't see a reason why he can't snatch a set off Cilic today if he plays well and that should give this total a solid chance.
Comment -
Thx and glComment -
Good luck EP.Comment -
Good luck epComment -
Good luck today. keep the winners cominComment
