October 30th
ATP Paris: Haas -150
ATP Paris: Mahut +115
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10-29-13 11:32 PM #2696
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10-30-13 12:23 AM #2697
Seems like everyone has an opinion on Mahut, Simon, makes it a big ole pass. I like Fognini +195 v Dimitrov, any thoughts?
Late to the party about bet sizing, I tend to agree bet sizes shouldn't vary wildly, mostly stick to 1-2u, but I will go as low as .5u on some plays, and have taken 1 3u play this year - which is 10% of BR for me (Machida inside the distance against munoz -115)... Think there are exceptions that prove the rule, as Machida proved all over Munoz' forehead early in the first round. If my edge is that big, I'll "POUND."Last edited by Noleafclover; 10-30-13 at 12:30 AM.
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10-30-13 01:50 AM #2698
NoLeaf, u won't get yourself into any "risk of ruin" hot-water with the approach you just described...the odd double-calibre, and super-rare triple-calibre bullet never killed anybody's account as long as they are genuinely due to the perceived edge on the play itself...and not influenced at all by how much you NEED to get back due to the results of previous plays. A lot of "disguised chasing" takes place when a capper suddenly and conveniently gets more "confident" in the plays coming up when suffering a bad run...and if the run continues, the "confidence" magically magnifies to whatever is NEEDed. Having a cap at something like 3u (and the discipline to apply it objectively) seems very workable.
BTW, nice hit on the Machida prop...i think he'll be brilliant as a MW (i have heard it was only his friendship with Anderson that kept him up at LHW...Machida's one of my favorite fighters...and that Phil Davis decision was bullshit)Last edited by fitguy67; 10-30-13 at 01:55 AM.
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10-30-13 02:06 PM #2699
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10-30-13 11:44 PM #2700
October 31st
ATP Paris: Raonic -140
ATP Paris Parlay: Wawrinka + Federer [+114]
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10-31-13 12:24 AM #2701
EP I've been selectively tailing you lately and it hasnt been working out. Hope Wawa turns that around.
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10-31-13 12:45 AM #2702
Good luck EP. I think Berdych/Raonic goes the distance. Wawa to come thru. Federer to beat kohl in 3 sets.
Originally Posted by EaglesPhan36
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10-31-13 09:58 AM #2703
Getting a slight discount @ -130 now for Raonic.
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10-31-13 10:16 AM #2704
bol EP took raonic 2-1 and gasquet 2-1
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10-31-13 10:33 AM #2705
It's not easy laying chalk on Raonic vs a top player.
feels like I'm bucking in for a Halloween Hay Ride
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10-31-13 12:27 PM #2706
Typical pattern. Guy blows several shots in a TB, got gifted some shots to win the TB, ultimately blows it and then has no composure in his 1st service game. So I'll just resign myself to splitting these two picks. I'm not sure who blew more opps in that TB, but obviously Milos won the race at the end ... not to mention the three early break points in the 1st set. Meh.
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10-31-13 02:04 PM #2707
Milos was clutch until he was serving for the set. Then the nerves got to him. Byrdy was nerves through most of that tie-break.
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10-31-13 02:06 PM #2708
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10-31-13 10:32 PM #2709
November 1st
ATP Paris: Wawrinka +390
ATP Paris: Federer +105
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10-31-13 11:01 PM #2710
Pretty gutsy call there, man. Wawa hasn't beaten Djoker in 7 years. lol. BOL! I'm staying away from this match now.
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11-01-13 12:24 AM #2711
BOL love the picks tn
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11-01-13 12:46 AM #2712
Originally Posted by EaglesPhan36
November 1st
ATP Paris: Wawrinka +390
ATP Paris: Federer +105
Good luck man. Without looking I was on the same side as you.
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11-01-13 02:02 AM #2713
Really like the GOAT play. Hate seeing you on Stan the Man...think Nole wins in two tight sets.
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11-01-13 06:36 AM #2714
Worth a try.. Go Swiss! My futures would look better with those 2 winning.
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11-01-13 08:47 AM #2715
He may get killed in both sets, seeing as he dropped the opener 6-1 ... but the price was insane. I'd pay -500 for Nadal over Gasquet, but Wawrinka has proven this year that he can stay with Djokovic. Originally Posted by STAY STRONG
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11-01-13 11:21 AM #2716
Have the feeling Roger hiccups 1st and loses this. Really felt he needed to win in two. Delpo seems to have more to him now that he won that 2nd set.
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11-01-13 11:22 AM #2717
A common trend of his, I regret not making a large wager on the OVER Originally Posted by EaglesPhan36
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11-01-13 11:43 AM #2718
That's a really nice win for Rog.
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11-01-13 11:49 AM #2719
Stan was a no show that first set. I took the over 21.5 and lost. He has no right to be in the top ten, way too uneven, effort and motivation wise.
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11-01-13 12:25 PM #2720
Rankings system has always been a joke, but I mean who are you going to say "deserves" a Top 10 spot? Outside of Rafa and Djokovic, I've always said it - motivation for most is usually a question mark at different times during the season.
It's hard to judge people here at the end of the season too. Guys have been worn down from months of travel and play, takes a special kind of animal to be strong at this time of year.
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11-01-13 12:46 PM #2721
What do you think about Nadal in straight sets? Gas man has only taken a set in 3 out of the 11 matches. And of course he's 0-11 against him..
Oh yea last 6 in a row he hasn't won a set.Last edited by Minnesota Niice; 11-01-13 at 12:56 PM.
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11-01-13 02:12 PM #2722
Sorry was away. I would have agreed that would be the most likely outcome in that one.
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11-01-13 02:18 PM #2723
y u so pro? Originally Posted by eaglesphan36
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11-01-13 02:32 PM #2724
Ferrer to win first set
Berdych will have to adjust from raonic
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11-01-13 02:33 PM #2725
No problem. Thanks man Originally Posted by EaglesPhan36
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11-07-13 07:21 AM #2726
Overall Profit: +4.40
November 7th
ATP London: Federer-Gasquet Over 22 [-125]
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11-07-13 10:34 AM #2727
I, and everybody else, was on the over on this one EP. A sure sign that it was doomed. Gascan mailed this one in.
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11-07-13 10:45 AM #2728
Yeah. I really wasn't planning on playing much this week, but this one I liked. Oh well. Probably done till next year.
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