ZXCVBNM's small tournament tennis picks!

**ji03** · 09-22-09, 09:04 AM

Like the Gruel pick. Good luck

**CollegePro** · 09-22-09, 09:18 AM

with you on Gruel. Hope we can cash this. GL!

**Spanks** · 09-22-09, 09:45 AM

Gruel...

**CollegePro** · 09-22-09, 10:57 AM

what do you think about Fabrice Santoro?

**Spanks** · 09-22-09, 10:43 PM

Originally posted by collegepro

what do you think about fabrice santoro?

what a worthless piece of shit he is...

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-23-09, 12:30 AM

No motivation for tennis right now for me. Too many unknowns. Thailand Open will re-start some tennis interest with the big boys back in play.

**ZXCVBNM** · 09-23-09, 08:33 AM

2-0 +$40

Llodra to beat Zverev - This is Llodra's home tournament, he seems to do better at home where he reached the Marseille final, and the last few times at Metz he's lost in the second round but to solid top 10 opposition. Zverev has lost his last 6 matches and Llodra isn't in much better form but I like the home crowd to propel Llodra to victory.

-123
24.60 to win 20.

Jarkko Nieminen -4 game handicap over Grosjean. Sebastien Grosjean has been to hell and back as far as injuries are concerned, retiring in 4 straight tournaments due to his shoulder in the last year. This is his comeback, and I don't expect him to be running 100%. Nieminen has also had injury troubles but he's rebounded nicely and found form, looking solid losing close matches to Tsonga in the Open and Baghdatis in the Davis Cup. Grosjean is a huge question mark and I do expect a solid Nieminen to beat him. The -4 pushes if Grosjean retires but I expect Grosjean to have some rust and lose a straight setter.

-4 -128
25.60 to win 20.

**ZXCVBNM** · 09-23-09, 11:07 PM

3-0 +$60 - Nieminen withdrew.

Gonna go with two rematches.

Gonzalez to beat Hernandez - Gonzalez beat Hernandez the last clay tournament he played which was Umag in Croatia. Hernandez has an inflated 'last 10' record beating up weak opposition before losing to Serra last week, and Hanescu this week. Hanescu was not himself, hitting just over 50% first serves and Hernandez still struggled winning 7-6 6-4 - this with Hanescu only winning 27% of first serve return points and 57% of his own first serve points. Gonzalez both (especially) serves and returns much better than that.

-130
39 to win 30.

Koellerer to beat Greul. Both guys have great records lately but I feel Koellerer is on the run of his life, a peak ranking of 57. Both guys won the last clay challenger they played - Greul last week and Koellerer last month..... where he beat Greul in the semis. There is a saying in boxing that the guy who wins the fight will win the rematch 90% of the time, and I think that will happen here. Both guys I am picking lead the head to head, Gonzalez 2-0 and Koellerer 3-2 winning the last 3 matches - sometimes a guy has just got another guy's number.

-130
39 to win 30.

**ZXCVBNM** · 09-24-09, 08:29 AM

4-1 +$51 Koellerer destroyed by Greul.

Petzschner -1.5 games over Llodra.

You know how I said Llodra can be motivated by the crowd to beat Zverev? Well Petzschner is no Zverev - he is in top form and has his best ranking ever even though he can be somewhat inconsistent sometimes. I believe he is a better player than Llodra, it will have to depend on how he handles Llodra's serve. Llodra has bad service games, he saved 7 of 8 break points yesterday against Zverev and almost lost the match early in the second set. I don't think Petzschner will let him free if he gets him in that position. Sometimes the crowd isn't enough when you have a quality player in front of you. Fun fact: first and only time Petzschner played this tournament in 2003 he made the Quarterfinals, and he's much better than he was then so it's pretty obvious the surface suits him just fine.

-105
31.50 to win 30.

**Ulver86** · 09-24-09, 10:36 AM

thanks for the write-ups ZXC

**ZXCVBNM** · 09-24-09, 10:47 PM

Originally posted by Ulver86

thanks for the write-ups ZXC

5-1 +$81

Maximo Gonzalez to beat Simon Greul.

Sorry Simon but your run stops here. Gonzalez has played and beat better opposition on clay this year, while Greul has been on a great run but mostly against weak players. Koellerer only won 50% of his first serve points, you will not even beat a junior with that rate. Gonzalez is a great server on clay hitting 70% regularly, and with the pure clay skills to back it up too. It may be tight but I have no doubt Gonzalez will prevail.

-135
40.50 to win 30.

Fabio Fognini to beat Albert Montanes.

Fognini is a very inconsistent guy, but Montanes even more so. Fognini beat the solid Almagro by attacking his second serve. Sometimes Fognini gets on these runs, beating guys he really shouldn't like Davydenko, Mathieu this year. Montanes is favored because of his form but he's been beating up on inferior guys before coming up to better players (not even 1-30 rank, more like 50s and 60s) and losing. He simply is not consistent enough to back, and I think Fognini has the better skills too.

+129
30 to win 38.70.

Unofficial pick, a parlay made of favorites. Hantuchova, Peer, Monaco, Kohlschreiber.

+121
30 to win 36.43

**Ulver86** · 09-25-09, 01:06 AM

ZXC what's your thoughts on Gasquet vs Petz? I like Gasquet at +120, thought it was a steal the way he played his last match with 23 aces (albeit several mental lapses, as always with him)

**alzor** · 09-25-09, 07:17 AM

Originally posted by ZXCVBNM

Maximo Gonzalez to beat Simon Greul.

Sorry Simon but your run stops here. Gonzalez has played and beat better opposition on clay this year, while Greul has been on a great run but mostly against weak players. Koellerer only won 50% of his first serve points, you will not even beat a junior with that rate. Gonzalez is a great server on clay hitting 70% regularly, and with the pure clay skills to back it up too. It may be tight but I have no doubt Gonzalez will prevail.

-135
40.50 to win 30.

I've backed Maxi pretty heavily so lets hope this hits!

**alzor** · 09-25-09, 07:30 AM

Also have a parlay with Kohlschreiber/Perzschner/Monfils. Good luck to all

**alzor** · 09-25-09, 09:01 AM

Farking got burnt by Maxi....gonna chase by going heavy on Perzschner.
Sorry for hijacking your thread

**Ulver86** · 09-26-09, 02:27 AM

thoughts on the upcoming matches?

**ZXCVBNM** · 09-26-09, 06:37 PM

5-3 $10.50

ouch............ but it will happen.

I sat out the semis as I have a better idea of who will be in the finals, the only person I was certain of was Monaco - the others were facing their first REAL tests of the tournament.

Finals parlay:

Monaco will not lose here, he is on fire. If anything Montanes had an easier draw while Monaco handled both Greul and Cuevas who were on fire before losing. Montanes handled his business easily but then again his ranking dictates he must do so. This is the difference between Monaco and Montanes: Monaco's tournament losses have all been to players he is supposed to lose to, top 20 guys. While Montanes beats everyone he is supposed to beat then drops to a guy that is a bit tougher.

Monfils has impressed me this week after injury concerns but he has been steamrolling the opposition as opposed to Kohlschreiber. I don't like that he dropped a set to Phau and even struggled with Mathieu who is generally a mid-level player in these tournaments. The home crowd will be backing Monfils 100% and Monfils lost this same final last year, the motivation will be there.

Monaco/Monfils parlay
-108
100 to win 92.57

**RobbReport** · 09-27-09, 10:33 AM

****ing Monaco. just broke down mentally in the second, he was up like 4 games.

**ZXCVBNM** · 09-27-09, 10:39 PM

Hah.

5-4 -90.50

Like that post said up there ^ Monaco just choked.

Guillermo Garcia-Lopez to beat Thomas Bellucci - Bangkok ATP (Indoor hard court)

Have you seen Bellucci on hard courts? Like 10 matches all year.. why he is playing this tournament is beyond me, but I will take Lopez who isn't the typical clay court Spaniard, hard court is his preferred surface. Only reason the odds are so close is because this is Lopez's first match in about a month while Belucci has been playing clay courts this month.. but I will still go with the better hard courter, hopefully he doesn't have much rust.

-130
65 to win 50.

Two WTA picks: WTA Tokyo (Hard court)

Jie Zheng and Sonia Mirza UNDER 20.5 games - I don't trust Mirza here but I don't trust the gam ehandicap either. A 6-4 6-4 is likely if Mirza is up for it. She qualified for this event by beating two no-names but she has been way off form this season, I think Zheng wins the sets 2-0 but I'd rather be safe if something like 6-4 6-4 happens.

-120
36 to win 30.

Razzano/Benesova UNDER 20 games - Similar to the first match I picked Benesova is a clay courter - her rank is in the 30s but she generally only does well in the clay tournaments and struggles on hard courts. Both have been off since the US Open, I believe Razzano can jump out of an early lead and hold it during the 2nd set. I'm hoping she can turn on the jets today because if she's lackluster she's prone to losing a set.

-108
32.40 to win 30.

**ZXCVBNM** · 09-28-09, 11:37 AM

0-3, thread closed.

Rather play freakin 7th division Swedish soccer than this nonsense.